21–30 of 81 posts
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Just to be clear, you doubt a large federal entity that employs thousands of professionals because you see a lot of people who you think are rich?
Yes. And I am a highly educated individual with a degree in statistics/CS
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It's a terrible luxury product though because 1) Prop 13 means that people from 50 years ago are still in the luxury neighborhoods 2) Crime is not sufficiently eradicated even from expensive areas
Just to put a dose of reality here, Prop 13 property taxes reset on sales (there are exceptions when selling to children of the owners but generally they reset) and property turnover rates in California are generally in excess of 10%. What that means is that pretty much all of the taxes are reset every 10 years or so. This is more true of "desirable" places to live (Bay Area, LA, San Diego) than say "less desirable".…
When I visited Cali, I was hoping I'd be surrounded by ambitious people who wanted to work hard and make a lot of money. I was disappointed, everyone seemed normal. Maybe a bit Epicurean hedonist. Since my local friends are this work hard and make a lot of money type, and it took a half decade to meet and cultivate those friends, I decided to stay local. Me and the wife have the resume for Cali, but we decided that p…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a terrible luxury product though because 1) Prop 13 means that people from 50 years ago are still in the luxury neighborhoods 2) Crime is not sufficiently eradicated even from expensive areas
Just to put a dose of reality here, Prop 13 property taxes reset on sales (there are exceptions when selling to children of the owners but generally they reset) and property turnover rates in California are generally in excess of 10%. What that means is that pretty much all of the taxes are reset every 10 years or so. This is more true of "desirable" places to live (Bay Area, LA, San Diego) than say "less desirable".…
(And naturally, the longer a house is held, the longer it’s likely to be held, even without Prop 13, but Prop 13 makes it a stronger sticky force.)
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Yes. And I am a highly educated individual with a degree in statistics/CS
So obviously you'd know that your sample size is so small as to be statistically insignificant, you can't actually measure wealth but may be guessing based on visible status symbols, and that the IRS taxes gains and not holdings. Obviously as someone highly educated you'd realize anecdotal data can't tell you about broad statistical trends and isn't actually a replacement for real sampling. And obviously with such a…
As a resident who was born here and left and then came back, I’ve had this idea kicking around in my head of “California is a luxury product”. If you look at the entire US, and assume you have the ability to move and live in any state, there are lots of options for everyone at every income level. (Disclaimer that this doesn’t address poverty, DEI, and other limitations to a good chunk of citizens). From the Gold Rush…
I have always been convinced that the general numbers on how many rich people (> 10M networth and > 50M networth) there are is a total lie. Maybe its the bubble that I live in, but there are ALOT of very wealthy people on the coasts. The government numbers dont match my anecdata, I think they are missing a ton of income/capital gains, and thus our wealth distribution charts dont match reality
> I have always been convinced that the general numbers on how many rich people (> 10M networth) there are is a total lie. Not really a lie, but most of that wealth is on paper. Those people do not have $10M cash, they $10M in investments at today's fair market value. Some amount of property appreciation is due to lower interest rates allowing home buyers to roll up their equity over time as they buy bigger, more exp…
People can do things like take loans against their investment gains, use that money for other investing. It can absolutely be invisible to the IRS as they skirt tax laws.
Another example, take the construction industry. Its estimated that half the money getting paid to construction contractors is under the table.
I have always been convinced that the general numbers on how many rich people (> 10M networth and > 50M networth) there are is a total lie. Maybe its the bubble that I live in, but there are ALOT of very wealthy people on the coasts. The government numbers dont match my anecdata, I think they are missing a ton of income/capital gains, and thus our wealth distribution charts dont match reality
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a terrible luxury product though because 1) Prop 13 means that people from 50 years ago are still in the luxury neighborhoods 2) Crime is not sufficiently eradicated even from expensive areas
Just to put a dose of reality here, Prop 13 property taxes reset on sales (there are exceptions when selling to children of the owners but generally they reset) and property turnover rates in California are generally in excess of 10%. What that means is that pretty much all of the taxes are reset every 10 years or so. This is more true of "desirable" places to live (Bay Area, LA, San Diego) than say "less desirable".…
That would be assuming certain things, among which would be that if 10% of properties sell every year, there is a consistent 10% chance of a given property selling each year.
What I can tell you from looking at the data on all the houses in the neighborhood in which we bought our home in 2019 is that the vast majority of them had been last purchased more than 20 years earlier (and quite a few more than 30).
Given the significant economic incentives created by Prop 13, houses in appreciating areas should be less likely to turn over than ones in areas where values are relatively stable.