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Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

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Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#71
post #3

Of course it's too early to tell with lots of confounding variables, but labor productivity has been taking a steep dive[0]. So perhaps in the aggregate, WFH is resulting in less work being done. I say this as someone who's been full-time WFH for over a decade; I'm not taking a position one way or another. [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MPU4910063

Productivity can't really be defined, let alone measured. When people start talking about it they have left hard facts behind I'm afraid...

Maybe not for what most of us do but for a lot of jobs, especially blue collar jobs, it absolutely can be measured down to the smallest increment. If you work on an assembly line, or really anything that isn't mostly knowledge work, your productivity can be measured very accurately.

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those who are entering the workforce, remote working is fun for greybeards and terrible for fresh grads, interns and apprentices.

Fresh grads, interns, and apprentices typically uproot their lives to move to tech hubs, as do older populations. That is the terrible effect - getting dropped in a strange new location with minimal network. Of course letting "locals" work remotely would make that situation worse, agreed. So completely do away with tech hubs. People can continue to grow organically, they are free to stay or move as makes sense to the…

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Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#74
post #2

Commercial real estate value is a bubble that's gonna pop soon. There's just way more office space than anyone needs.

Our office building management is giving half a month free for new referrals; meanwhile they are refusing to rent us more floor space.

Why would they do that? Would it not make more sense to focus on existing customers instead of chasing new leads? I mean, sure, don't put all your eggs in one basket. But when an existing customer is asking you to take their money, why turn them down?

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#75
Anecdotally my org is on a hiring tear lately and we're completely remote, and the quality of candidates has steeply risen as of late. I mean really good candidates I'd rarely see before are pouring into my inbox. I've never talked to so many folks currently at Google, Meta, Amazon, but also big banks and other F500s.

Many candidates are coy about their reasons for leaving, especially given all the layoffs, but, still anecdotally, the trend I've seen is for folks to be sending out a lot of feelers during RTO and many folks have even told me straight up that's why they're looking. They want flexible hours and work locations.

I talked to a director last week who spends 1/3 the year in ski country, 1/3 the year in the Midwest and 1/3 the year on the coast. He's not going back, and practically anyone would be lucky to have him.

It's going to be a bloodbath.

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#76
post #27
post #2

Commercial real estate value is a bubble that's gonna pop soon. There's just way more office space than anyone needs.

Is there a way to short CRE other than investing in non-commercial RE? I'd think you can probably directly short CRE-focused REITs but I'd be worried about them rebalancing or diversifying even as CRE starts to pop.

There are like a half dozen levered short CRE ETF's.

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#77

"Unispace found that nearly half (42%) of companies with return-to-office mandates witnessed a higher level of employee attrition than they had anticipated" No severance payouts. No bumps to your unemployment insurance payments. Everything is working to plan.

[flagged]

What's the plan you are thinking of?

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#78
My take on remote work as a manager for a company with significant name recognition:

I think it's clear some people prefer working remotely (and the online hacker news crowd leans heavily that way). It's also clear that some people feel real benefits from being in the office.

I think it's inevitable that the culture of a company mirrors the values of it's leaders.

Companies with leaders that value in person communication, place a high premium on random collaboration will prefer their teams to be in office, and hire people based on this. This could involve companies with large amounts of more junior people that need training or experience (and whose leaders feel that training is easier done in person).

Companies with leaders that feel like collaboration is less important, are more willing to set metrics and not be as directly as involved, and hire experienced employees with less oversight, lean towards remote work.

This means you'll see a decline in hybrid teams. Teams want to be made up of people who share values, and this is something that will polarize teams. Companies that prioritize growing talent will prefer to be in person, companies that prefer to hire for specific roles with clear expectations will be OK being remote.

This polarization will be painful and shouldn't happen quickly. I see many companies putting their finger on the scale when hiring, preferring in office roles (and selecting people that want or can't get remote roles). Over time, natural attrition will mean less and less remote workers, and that eventual makes it easier to push others out.

I don't think this is a good or bad thing, but it does mean that if you want to be fully remote, you need to remain very competitive in terms of skills. You're competing against a wider talent pool. I do expect 3 days a week (Tues/Wed/Thurs) to become standard for many companies, and that broadens the "recruiting" radius for in office companies. 1 hour commute 5 days a week is the same time commitment as 1.5 hours commute 3 days a week.

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#79

> “staggering 76% of employees stand ready to jump ship if their companies decide to pull the plug on flexible work schedules” People always say this, but I’d bet that the vast majority of those 76% would begrudgingly go in if it was demanded. Talk is cheap, as they say.

I've hired someone who lives 2 hours drive from the office.

When they were hired during the pandemic, it was agreed there would be an eventual return to the office at an unknown time in the future. They'd been planning a move to my (high-salary, high-cost-of-living) area before the pandemic, so that was just fine with them.

Now it's several years later. If I order a full return to the office they'll have a choice: Either move house, or move jobs.

Selling a house and buying a new one costs $$$$$ and is a huge hassle.

Seems to me pretty believable that they'd look at other jobs if a full return to office was ordered.

Re: Damaging results of mandated return to the office: it’s worse than we thought

#80
post #50

I reclaim 1.5 hours a day from work from home, so a mandated back to work would actually represent a 6 point pay cut on the day assuming I thought that through properly. I don’t even have an egregious commute compared to others. Never mind that all of a sudden I no longer need before and after daycare. I have a home gym and can acceptably exercise at lunch. I don’t have peer pressures to go out for lunch all the time…

Ed Zitron wrote about it a lot in his newsletter a while back and I think had some really excellent insights about it. Especially these three factors:

- Executives work in a way that genuinely does probably reward or even require in person interaction. A lot of their job is "intangible" human connection-building stuff with other executives, shareholders, investors, manufacturers, etc. And because of the way executives are selected, a lot of these people haven't worked a "normal" job in decades or sometimes ever. They mistakenly think everyone else's work is, or should be, more like theirs is.

- Ego shit: from executive down to middle management a significant amount of the "reward" of the job is prestige, in the form of authority and control over other workers. Seeing "their" workers all lined up in the office is a visceral experience of this prestige and they don't want to give it up.

- Some significant fraction of middle management is genuinely not necessary or beneficial, but is essentially skimmed off the productivity of the lower workers and presented upwards as managerial competence. And especially, this isn't evenly distributed: maybe all managers do it a little, inadvertently or through bureaucratic structure, but some managers are almost exclusively this. Their actual career is at stake because it makes clear who is doing the work, and prevents them from intercepting it to take credit.

And then finally my own view on it is exposed in the disgusting euphemism "labor discipline." White collar pay went up during the pandemic. WFH is incredibly better for the quality of life of many workers, with few or no downsides. We are realizing we don't have to live and work the way we have been, things can be better for us at no one's expense. We are getting uppity and need to be reminded who is really in control of our lives.

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