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Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

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Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#321

Post by brutusborn »

slashdev wrote: post #176
thomasahle wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See also this timeline of the last four inter-glacial periods: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/104-4000... It also shows how crazy it would be if we get the projected 2-3 degrees average temperature increase. Even in a period where we'd expect to be going into a new ice age; instead shooting to a previously unseen high temperature.

On the other hand if we only have 2-3 degrees of warming, if that’s enough to prevent the next ice age, didn’t we just dodge a massive icy bullet? Might we not one day thank ourselves for doing something reckless and stupid that actually worked out? Yeah a warmer climate brings all kinds of horrible changes. But food still grows in the northern hemisphere. A colder climate is arguably even worse for us. By the way, t…

I don’t think many models predict much difference between 3 and 4 degrees, so I don’t think you can describe it as horrific.

IPCC predicts some local tipping points at 4C but global tipping points are much higher.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#322

Post by brutusborn »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #284
slashdev wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand if we only have 2-3 degrees of warming, if that’s enough to prevent the next ice age, didn’t we just dodge a massive icy bullet? Might we not one day thank ourselves for doing something reckless and stupid that actually worked out? Yeah a warmer climate brings all kinds of horrible changes. But food still grows in the northern hemisphere. A colder climate is arguably even worse for us. By the way, t…

What I gathered is that if the gulf stream stops, warm water will no longer flow north and the ice sheets will grow explosively, triggering an ice age (the kind where thick ice sheets flow southwards). That would pretty much wipe out anything built in the northern half of Europe... although granted, I don't know if it was like a kilometer high ice sheet rolling our way or how fast it went in previous ice ages, it mig…

This is 99% conjecture. The current climate models do not predict those kinds of changes and most don’t have the fidelity to do so. Even the best models can’t account for simple things like aerosol pollution and they don’t have the resolution to determine the behaviour of ocean or atmospheric currents.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#323

Post by saltymug76 »

wheelerof4te wrote: post #309
saltymug76 wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're trying to minimize human caused warming with the rare eruption of super volcanoes, it's pretty weak.

Where is the evidence of human effect on the climate change? There is a huge effect on pollution, but hardly any on the global climate.

Considering the rapid rise in temperature on a relatively miniscule geological timescale, I'd be more interested to see evidence that it's not a manmade phenomenon.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#324

Post by brutusborn »

BurningFrog wrote: post #188
mytailorisrich wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iirc, the CO2 concentration now as been pumped up higher than it was then, which is in part what is worrying because temps might then potentially shoot even higher. Bottom line: we need large scale carbon capture quickly because even if we reach net zero CO2 will take millenia to drop back to the level it was pre-industrial revolution. Edit: I wouldn't focus on "pre-industrial levels" specifically, the point is that…

> Bottom line: we need large scale carbon capture quickly The short term solution/bandaid is pumping SO2 into the stratosphere while we figure out carbon capture.

Based on our record of environmental interventions; SO2 sounds suicidal. But it only lasts a few days in the atmosphere so maybe it has an in built off switch.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#325

Post by worldmerge »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #41

This is a very important project. There is a joke in here about "why not wait 2 years for the ice to melt off if you wanted to look at the mud underneath?" But as the article states, "'This will change climate models because it redefines our basic understanding of how ice moves,' explains Dorthe Dahl-Jensen." Much, if not the majority, of climate science is the creation of models (differential equations mostly) that…

I would like to ask in general to the group. How do I get a job doing field work? Like working on sensors but then also going outside and working and doing analysis?

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#326

Post by BurningFrog »

brutusborn wrote: post #324
BurningFrog wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bottom line: we need large scale carbon capture quickly The short term solution/bandaid is pumping SO2 into the stratosphere while we figure out carbon capture.

Based on our record of environmental interventions; SO2 sounds suicidal. But it only lasts a few days in the atmosphere so maybe it has an in built off switch.

Note that is for the stratosphere, not the atmosphere.

The mechanism is well known from volcanic eruptions, and it only lasts (from memory) 1-2 years in the stratosphere, so if something goes wrong, it can easily be tapered off.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#327

Post by mble »

They can use this method to break the bedrock and reach the void - https://minecraft.fandom.com/wiki/Tutorials/Breaking_bedrock...

It is important to note that you need to be very careful near the void, as it is very hard to escape, and 64 blocks down you get instant damage which would get you killed.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#328

Post by hnhg »

toshk wrote: post #315
hnhg wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide the citations for that? Migration forecasts are absolutely enormous [1] and 10 million seems very low in terms of relation to the numbers and how humanity will react to it all. Just think of the current reactions to migration currently and multiply that 10-fold or more. And I can see that happening in the next 20 years. [1] this is just one I found from a quick search, there is a lot more out there: h…

I mean there are a bunch of studies and articles, with an extreme wide range. It also difficult to count. For instance if a heat wave leads to heart attack in an obese person, should that be included, etc. UN org claims 3.4 million per year by the end of the century: https://www.v-20.org/new-health-data-shows-unabated-climate-... See other one here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dishashetty/2021/07/30/climate-... In g…

Thanks. For me, I just do not think humanity in its current state could handle the the massive amount of migration that could potentially happen without ugly political upheavals and conflict. I guess we will find out.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#329

Post by pmayrgundter »

dredmorbius wrote: post #248
pmayrgundter wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The figure I've found is 2800 km^3 of approximately granite, which at 2.7 tonnes per cubic meter gives about a billion gigatons ejecta. I've never found a CO2 estimate, but did find that it's a significant amount of that mass, as is SO2. It wasn't worth me doing more of a sketch since it's not clear how to model the effects of such a massive system. I was struck tho, that the magnitude of this and a few other events…

Wikipedia cites a range of 2,000 -- 13,000 km^3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_volcanic_erupt... > As for the gaseous component of ejecta: Water vapour is consistently the most abundant volcanic gas, normally comprising more than 60% of total emissions. Carbon dioxide typically accounts for 10 to 40% of emissions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_gas > Citing: H. Sigurdsson et al. (2000) Encyclo…

Good finds. Thanks!

Yeah, it's the comparison between DRE and Gas ejecta that got me bogged down before.

Having now given up, I asked ChatG4. It says "the mass ratio between DRE and gaseous emissions might be on the order of 20:1 to 100:1", no citations ofc.

So, just as a strawman and using your 10-40%, on the low end .01.1 = 0.001, high end .05.4 = 0.02. So .1%-2% of ejecta by mass is CO2 emissions. Hah :)

Using my orig figure for Toba of a billion gigatons of ejecta, of which roughly a million gigatons would be CO2. Correct math?

Human GHG emissions are ~50 Gt/year.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#330

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

biofox wrote: post #283
__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the added burdens of... - managing licenses across multiple devices - limiting the people you can share code with to ones that are willing to deal with licenses - budgeting for an ongoing subscription / renewing as needed ...I'd say that even $10/year is too much. Ecosystems that create collaboration barriers like these are no place for important work.

The support and documentation for MATLAB is really unparalleled though. Worth every penny when you want to focus your time on being productive, rather than banging your head against the language.

Different worlds I suppose, but for me it doesn't count as "productive" unless my audience is successful. So having support for myself doesn't get me very far.
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