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Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

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Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#311
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the many misleading things done by climate scientists is to splice together data derived via different measurement methods. The CO2 curve 800000 years back is an excellent example. CO2 in air bubbles in ice will diffuse into the ice during the many millenia the ice have been stored under pressure. You can therefore expect the ice core CO2 to be lower than hypothetical atmospheric measurements at the same time.…

Not sure if you are trolling of really believe this to be true, but for anyone else assuming good faith: The diffusion aspect is (of course) well-modeled, see e.g. references under "past greenhouse gasses" at [0]. [0]: https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-c...

This is a very interesting read:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciolog...

They have found some meltwater layers with unexpectedly large quantities of CO2 > 750ppm.

But they also show that there is unexpected heavy diffusion around the meltwater layers. And they argue very compellingly, that the ice core CO2 records have been smoothed through natural diffusion.

Why is this information not given when showing this graph?

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#312
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if you are trolling of really believe this to be true, but for anyone else assuming good faith: The diffusion aspect is (of course) well-modeled, see e.g. references under "past greenhouse gasses" at [0]. [0]: https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-c...

This is a very interesting read: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciolog... They have found some meltwater layers with unexpectedly large quantities of CO2 > 750ppm. But they also show that there is unexpected heavy diffusion around the meltwater layers. And they argue very compellingly, that the ice core CO2 records have been smoothed through natural diffusion. Why is this information not given…

>750 ppm CO2 is incredible, if that's true it's no wonder that interglacial maximums could have been 5 degrees warmer than present day.

What's the causal explanation behind that much CO2 though? Super-volcano eruptions?

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that net zero is most likely not going to stop warming with 400+ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. CO2 concentration most likely has to drop but naturally it does so very slowly. Arguably at this point we already need cooling because 40+C every summer in half of Europe (for instance) is getting annoying...

> at this point we already need cooling A colossal volcanic eruption could do the trick, and those seem to happen rather unnervingly frequently.

Yeah it would be pretty silly for humanity to invest so much time and effort into lowering CO2 levels only for a Yellowstone or equivalent to erupt and send temperatures plummeting into a new ice age levels. When if humanity did nothing the eruption would only have taken us back to pre-industrial age temperatures.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#314
post #301
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why was ice drilling interrupted by the pandemic?

International travel was not easy nor reliable during the pandemic, with many borders de facto closed or severely restricted, with quarantines, tests, etc.. needed. The drilling season involves moving an international team from each of their home countries to Greenland, then back again a few weeks later. So practically impossible to make sure the drilling season could happen with the crew required and then get them h…

Every country I know of had special exemptions in place though, after the first few weeks of panic, for those who could supply credible written explanations.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#315
post #286
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but there is more to it. There are active crisis, like cancer & heart disease. Or upcoming ones like Alzeimer & Parkinson. That in the current day already affect more people per year, then the climate crisis will affect in the worst prognoses in a 100 years*. But Climate change is different, it speaks to the psyche of humans, the modern story of the flood. And in the same way it gives people meaning & without re…

Can you provide the citations for that? Migration forecasts are absolutely enormous [1] and 10 million seems very low in terms of relation to the numbers and how humanity will react to it all. Just think of the current reactions to migration currently and multiply that 10-fold or more. And I can see that happening in the next 20 years. [1] this is just one I found from a quick search, there is a lot more out there: h…

I mean there are a bunch of studies and articles, with an extreme wide range. It also difficult to count. For instance if a heat wave leads to heart attack in an obese person, should that be included, etc.

UN org claims 3.4 million per year by the end of the century: https://www.v-20.org/new-health-data-shows-unabated-climate-...

See other one here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dishashetty/2021/07/30/climate-...

In general it's very rough, many things are hard to predict

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#316
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very interesting read: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciolog... They have found some meltwater layers with unexpectedly large quantities of CO2 > 750ppm. But they also show that there is unexpected heavy diffusion around the meltwater layers. And they argue very compellingly, that the ice core CO2 records have been smoothed through natural diffusion. Why is this information not given…

>750 ppm CO2 is incredible, if that's true it's no wonder that interglacial maximums could have been 5 degrees warmer than present day. What's the causal explanation behind that much CO2 though? Super-volcano eruptions?

They explain in the paper. It's very likely an artifact.

But from the layers around it, it becomes clear that through the years these high CO2 bubbles leak CO2 to nearby layers.

And so CO2 highs are diminished in the ice core record and CO2 lows have been raised.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article definitely makes it sound like they had “boots on the ground”. There’s a picture of muddy boots and the caption says they are covered in ancient mud.

You need to clear a lot of snow before you can stand on the ice that you're drilling in (You can't drill straight if your rig's sitting on snow, you need to dig until you hit solid ground, and in this case the ground is ice). That's the "boots on the ground" part. They were physically there to do the drilling (as opposed to giant automated core drillers such as DISC[1], which don't require "boots on the ground" so mu…

I’m not disputing the reality; it would be a bit ridiculous and I assume incredibly dangerous especially given the rate at which the whole thing is moving. I’m just arguing that the article is worded in a way that is encourages such a misunderstanding.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#319
post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>750 ppm CO2 is incredible, if that's true it's no wonder that interglacial maximums could have been 5 degrees warmer than present day. What's the causal explanation behind that much CO2 though? Super-volcano eruptions?

They explain in the paper. It's very likely an artifact. But from the layers around it, it becomes clear that through the years these high CO2 bubbles leak CO2 to nearby layers. And so CO2 highs are diminished in the ice core record and CO2 lows have been raised.

But in the case it's not an artifact?

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would seem to me, that the best way to do long-scale climate models of a body ; knowing its composition in layers over time is really important to be able to calculate the flow of the layers of composition as particles. Think of the experiment of light as wave/particle... Glacial/geological scales operate as thus ; as physical masses of particles, but move in more wave-like manners - so you'll have material suspen…

Perhaps? Not sure I'm following the methodology you're suggesting. Most (perhaps all?) of the climate models I've read about or played with are based on energy balance. (energy in vs energy out) Start with Solar insolation (energy in) then subtract all the ways that energy leaves the planet (reflection and radiatively from the atmosphere.) Then add that the planet is its own heat source (molten core and all that) and…

Based on the criticisms I’ve seen, the melting ice / volcanism theory isn’t true.

That result didn’t pop out of existing climate models, it was an effect they explicitly made a domain specific model to look for.

This is how most climate models are made - bespoke models for a small application using other global models as boundary conditions.

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.G53B0673L/abstra...

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