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Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

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Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#281

Post by Miraste »

slashdev wrote: post #176
thomasahle wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See also this timeline of the last four inter-glacial periods: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/104-4000... It also shows how crazy it would be if we get the projected 2-3 degrees average temperature increase. Even in a period where we'd expect to be going into a new ice age; instead shooting to a previously unseen high temperature.

On the other hand if we only have 2-3 degrees of warming, if that’s enough to prevent the next ice age, didn’t we just dodge a massive icy bullet? Might we not one day thank ourselves for doing something reckless and stupid that actually worked out? Yeah a warmer climate brings all kinds of horrible changes. But food still grows in the northern hemisphere. A colder climate is arguably even worse for us. By the way, t…

There's no bullet to dodge. Minus human intervention, the next ice age would be in 50,000 years. Humanity will be either some unrecognizable scifi trope or, more likely, long gone by then. Planning for it is pointless.

The time scales for anthropogenic climate change and the previous temperature cycles are so different as to not be comparable.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#282

Post by japanuspus »

zosima wrote: post #263
lehi wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Keeling Curve is eye-opening for understanding our current versus (pre-)historical CO2 levels: https://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2023/07/introducing-keeling-c...

One of the many misleading things done by climate scientists is to splice together data derived via different measurement methods. The CO2 curve 800000 years back is an excellent example. CO2 in air bubbles in ice will diffuse into the ice during the many millenia the ice have been stored under pressure. You can therefore expect the ice core CO2 to be lower than hypothetical atmospheric measurements at the same time.…

Not sure if you are trolling of really believe this to be true, but for anyone else assuming good faith: The diffusion aspect is (of course) well-modeled, see e.g. references under "past greenhouse gasses" at [0].

[0]: https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-c...

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#283

Post by biofox »

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #207
javajosh wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that the individual license for Matlab is $149/year [0], which isn't crazy IMHO. 0 - https://www.mathworks.com/pricing-licensing.html?prodcode=ML...

Given the added burdens of... - managing licenses across multiple devices - limiting the people you can share code with to ones that are willing to deal with licenses - budgeting for an ongoing subscription / renewing as needed ...I'd say that even $10/year is too much. Ecosystems that create collaboration barriers like these are no place for important work.

The support and documentation for MATLAB is really unparalleled though. Worth every penny when you want to focus your time on being productive, rather than banging your head against the language.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#284

Post by Cthulhu_ »

slashdev wrote: post #176
thomasahle wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See also this timeline of the last four inter-glacial periods: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/104-4000... It also shows how crazy it would be if we get the projected 2-3 degrees average temperature increase. Even in a period where we'd expect to be going into a new ice age; instead shooting to a previously unseen high temperature.

On the other hand if we only have 2-3 degrees of warming, if that’s enough to prevent the next ice age, didn’t we just dodge a massive icy bullet? Might we not one day thank ourselves for doing something reckless and stupid that actually worked out? Yeah a warmer climate brings all kinds of horrible changes. But food still grows in the northern hemisphere. A colder climate is arguably even worse for us. By the way, t…

What I gathered is that if the gulf stream stops, warm water will no longer flow north and the ice sheets will grow explosively, triggering an ice age (the kind where thick ice sheets flow southwards). That would pretty much wipe out anything built in the northern half of Europe... although granted, I don't know if it was like a kilometer high ice sheet rolling our way or how fast it went in previous ice ages, it might be slow enough that it can be stopped and broken down before it causes damage.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#285

Post by stefncb »

adolph wrote: post #177
stefncb wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't tell if you're joking, but negative numbers are used to represent years BC.

It responds to the comment "I only clicked on the article because I thought it was the age of the samples too." Age is "The length of time that a person or thing has existed." AD and BC are both absolute values from a zero point, both positive ("1 BC is year 0, 45 BC is year −44" [0]). A relative chronological dating by some phenomenological method such as radiocarbon or thermolumenescence might establish a negative…

Yeah, makes a lot of sense. Hadn't even thought about the difference between age and year when I wrote that.

Thanks.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#286

Post by hnhg »

toshk wrote: post #119
snowwrestler wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People worry about accelerating climate change now because we live here now. It’s not a theoretical science thing. We have farms and cities and towns and bridges and dams and reservoirs in particular places, and we are accelerating the depreciation of many of them. The result will be tremendous loss of wealth, movement of populations, and the associated social consequences of those. Humanity doesn’t hate itself, we l…

Yeah but there is more to it. There are active crisis, like cancer & heart disease. Or upcoming ones like Alzeimer & Parkinson. That in the current day already affect more people per year, then the climate crisis will affect in the worst prognoses in a 100 years*. But Climate change is different, it speaks to the psyche of humans, the modern story of the flood. And in the same way it gives people meaning & without re…

Can you provide the citations for that? Migration forecasts are absolutely enormous [1] and 10 million seems very low in terms of relation to the numbers and how humanity will react to it all. Just think of the current reactions to migration currently and multiply that 10-fold or more. And I can see that happening in the next 20 years.

[1] this is just one I found from a quick search, there is a lot more out there: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate...

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#287

Post by defrost »

earthscienceman wrote: post #91
ChuckMcM wrote: post #41

This is a very important project. There is a joke in here about "why not wait 2 years for the ice to melt off if you wanted to look at the mud underneath?" But as the article states, "'This will change climate models because it redefines our basic understanding of how ice moves,' explains Dorthe Dahl-Jensen." Much, if not the majority, of climate science is the creation of models (differential equations mostly) that…

You're adding important context but I would like to clarify something to highlight just how complex climate change really is. I also am going to make a few related comments, as I do most of my research on melt in Greenland. Full disclosure: I do know some of the people in this article but I have never been to eGRIP specifically. I will be in Greenland in a week nearby though. No matter what the far future holds, the…

> IPCC Matlab code is a crime against humanity and fuck Mathworks.

High five and +1.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#288

Post by zosima »

Server6 wrote: post #273
zosima wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bigger problems than no power in the worst year imaginable. Give me a break.

Yeah. Crop failures and famine. Way bigger problem.

Availability of energy can mitigate crop failure and lack of energy also leads to crop failure.

How can people not generally understand the connection?

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#289

Post by zosima »

sanderjd wrote: post #270
zosima wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bigger problems than no power in the worst year imaginable. Give me a break.

Yes, no agriculture is an even bigger problem than no power.

You don't think modern agriculture and energy are intimately related?

I'm honestly a bit shocked.

Re: Ice core scientists in East Greenland reach bedrock

#290

Post by zosima »

japanuspus wrote: post #282
zosima wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the many misleading things done by climate scientists is to splice together data derived via different measurement methods. The CO2 curve 800000 years back is an excellent example. CO2 in air bubbles in ice will diffuse into the ice during the many millenia the ice have been stored under pressure. You can therefore expect the ice core CO2 to be lower than hypothetical atmospheric measurements at the same time.…

Not sure if you are trolling of really believe this to be true, but for anyone else assuming good faith: The diffusion aspect is (of course) well-modeled, see e.g. references under "past greenhouse gasses" at [0]. [0]: https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-c...

Where is it well-modelled? Noble gasses will diffuse differently from CO2. And on-top of diffusion of course CO2 will make hydrogen bonds with water in the ice.

It is well-understood that many ice cores give the same relative shape of peaks of various gasses through time.

Going from there to claiming knowing the absolue concentrations without very large error bars, is just not science.

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