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First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

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Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once cheap intermittent sources have in the moment saturated the market, nuclear cannot charge what it needs to pay off the very large capital cost. Nuclear is then dependent on making that money during brief spikes, but storage and demand dispatch will be flattening those spikes. Nuclear will have nowhere to hide.

Once cheap intermittent sources have saturated the market during peak production, further construction of intermittent sources will do nothing to displace the other 50% of demand that will continue to be fulfilled by fossil fuels. And then we either keep burning fossil fuels and wait until a storage breakthrough happens, or we start building non-intermittent sources of decarbonized energy.

Wind + solar + hydro can go well past 50% without any batteries. Batteries are getting ever less expensive and production just keeps ramping up even faster.

We really don’t need any major breakthroughs beyond economies of scale to see sub 7c/kWh rates 24/7/365. People are already deploying 50% battery backed solar because it’s cost competitive vs both base load and peaking power.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#282
post #149
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NRC was established just about when the first nuclear buildout collapsed under the weight of its own foolishness. Massive cost overruns did nuclear no favors whatsoever, clearly inadequate safety (especially on those first generation BWRs; hello Fukushima), and (most devastatingly) the deregulation of the US electricity grid, with PURPA (in 1978) and later steps opening grids to non-utility providers. Nuclear pro…

Fukushima shows that even early nuclear reactors are incredibly safe. You take an aging plant based on an outdated design, construct it in an unsafe location, then hit it with the fifth-largest earthquake ever recorded, then hit it with a 20 foot high tsunami, and then it explodes ... and what were the casualties? One worker and maybe 50 early deaths due to cancers. A typical coal power plant kills more people every…

Have you considered the costs to contain and clean up Fukushima? The financial costs and loss of lands for decades is a heavy hit for a country to take.

Japan passed a special tax to pay for the disaster (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-fukushima-anniversa... ).

From wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_disaster_cleanup) >In 2016, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry estimated the total cost of dealing with the Fukushima disaster at ¥21.5 trillion (US$187 billion),...

The Soviet Union, in part, collapsed from Chernobyl.

There is a huge fat tail risk on nuclear power. Roughly and a bit sadistically speaking, coal kills people predictably at a "death-from-car-crashes" rate. There is no fat-tail, you just have a high rate of cancer,etc. It is like letting people driving cars and accepting the 40,000/year deaths from accidents as the price.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#283
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And on the flip side, some energy markets like New England see a minimal variation in energy demand throughout the day, less than 10%. Provision enough generation to satisfy peak demand and spend the excess power doing things like carbon dioxide sequestration or desalination in places with limited drinking water. Too much energy is a vastly easier problem to solve than too little. And the great thing about nuclear is…

That sounds great until you consider the opposite. The issue with nuclear is it costs twice as much per kWh at 50% capacity than it does 100% capacity. Nuclear is expensive at 90% capacity factor, it’s insane at 45% capacity factor. Further, daily demand isn’t that problematic. It’s really seasonal demand that kills people’s dreams of scaling nuclear power. Over 24 hours going from a 100% high down to 50% low might a…

Again, you exaggerate the fluctuations in energy demand. This is a good primer on the hourly and seasonal fluctuations of electricity demand: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915

Even in the summer in Texas, where we experience the largest demand fluctuations, minimum demand is around 60% that of peak demand. And this is indeed a good use case for rooftop solar, especially since it can be used to power A/C in the same building on which its mounted - I never said we should have zero solar power, just that it's infeasible to use for the primary source of electricity. Rooftop solar is indeed a good way to mitigate A/C power draw. But outside of summer peak and minimum power draw is only about 20% difference, and again the peak power is at night.

I don't doubt that nuclear power is expensive. But at least is feasible to build. "Feasible but expensive" is much better than "not feasible regardless of cost". Intermittent sources are only feasible in a grid backed by fossil fuel and hydroelectric sources that can flexibly respond to solar and wind's variation. Once you enter the realm of a predominantly renewable grid, this changes drastically. Storage at a scale anywhere close to what's required to smooth the intermittency of renewables is not even feasible regardless of cost. No amount of money is going to provision the amount of storage required to smooth out the daily fluctuations of solar, let among the seasonal variations of both solar and wind. Overproduction and HVDC connections only take you so far unless you're going to cross the Atlantic (which is also of dubious feasibility). Even just a few hours of storage is well outside of reach. Don't be misled by a handful of battery stations in the MWh scale: actually trying to providing 2 TWh of storage would cause prices to skyrocket because production cannot remotely fulfill that level of demand. Not to mention it'd kill electric vehicle adoption.

This is why most proposals for a primarily renewable grid involve a novel storage system. Will hydrogen, or compressed air, or giant flywheels deliver the required scale? Maybe, in the same vein that maybe deep-drilled geothermal power will deliver cheap decarbonized energy. Those are unknown factors in that one cannot assume will work out. Would you consider it a reasonable plan to assume deep-drilled geothermal will solve decarbonization? After, Iceland has used geothermal for decades, and we have lots of experience drilling for oil? This is how we ought to regard things like hydrogen electricity storage or ammonia: they're in the realm of possibility not feasibility.

Again, it's not a question of cost it's a question of what's even possible without an engineering breakthrough. Maybe we'll figure out a way to build storage at grid scale. And maybe we'll figure out geographically independent geothermal power. But both of those are things not presently within our technical capabilities.

> ...and take the plant offline for weeks to refuel etc, then things look much worse.

Nuclear has historically had the highest capacity factor of all generation sources [2]. This hasn't been an issue with existing generation sources with even more downtime, so why would it be an issue with nuclear?

1. https://www.deegesolar.co.uk/do_solar_panels_work_in_the_win...!

2. https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Capacity_fac....

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or we just raise taxes on the fossil fuels until they stop being burned. This will have to be done anyway (along with CO2 tariffs to isolate countries that refuse to do so.) After that, storage gets rolled out. Nuclear never makes sense, and eventually the existing NPPs go away.

We raise taxes on fossil fuels, and then what? More investment in intermittent sources works until peak production is saturated. But now thanks to fuel taxes, lithium becomes a lot more expensive to mine since the heavy machinery is more expensive to fuel. Taxes on fossil fuels would reduce emissions, mostly by contracting the economy. It doesn't translate into more storage build out, and it certainly doesn't solve t…

Raw lithium is a small fraction of the cost of battery, using recent costs your looking at ~4% of total battery price from low purity lithium. People focus on it because of the name rather than nickel-cobalt-manganese or whatever the specific chemistry actually used. They also confuse mining costs with manufacturing costs when looking at ultra pure lithium ready for use in batteries but that’s like conflating the cost of 99.999% pure monocrystalline silicon with the cost of silicon in glass.

Batteries don’t need much Lithium and the stuff is more abundant than lead, tin, iodine, mercury, etc.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#285
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar thermal heating is not going to produce much energy in the winter when there's fewer hours of sunlight and more hours of cloud coverage - which just so happens to coincide with places that would need heating during the winter. Solar thermal performance is worse with diffuse light (read: overcast days) than PV solar, in fact that's a big part of why it was largely abandoned in the 2000s.

The main advantage of solar thermal is it’s really cheap so you can just scale collection to cover winter heating. That’s why adoption is so high in China even relatively far north. As to the US, the cost savings just isn’t that appealing for most people. It’s frankly ugly, complicated, and has minimal payoff at current prices.* Passive solar design can have significant benefits while looking much nicer. But if you’r…

As per your link, solar thermal water heating is very variable depending on geography:

> The amount of heat delivered by a solar water heating system depends primarily on the amount of heat delivered by the sun at a particular place (insolation). In the tropics insolation can be relatively high, e.g. 7 kWh/m2 per day, versus e.g., 3.2 kWh/m2 per day in temperate areas.

Because of this, many solar thermal systems are supplemented by convention heaters.

> In winter, the percentage of your hot water heated by the sun drops to as low as 10-20%—as you might expect with short days and weak sun in December. That’s why practically every solar water installed in the US will be connected to a backup conventional water heater to ensure that your hot water needs continue to be met even in January.

https://www.aspessolarproducts.com/solar-water-heater/how-do...

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#286
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> recall most of them operate as giant annual batteries, they refill in the rainy season once per year, then dispense that energy over the dry season That’s not quite how it works. Consider the biggest hydro project in US, the Columbia river, with its 14 dams. The system does fill up in the rainy season, but the crucial thing is that it’s not the dams that do fill up, but rather the whole watershed, meaning things li…

> Point is, we can’t just “save the water”. The storage level at Lake Mead has an annual spread of ~100ft; the dam is currently at historic low capacity and could hold about twice its current level: https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/lakemead_line.pdf Reservervoir dams certainly can store water and dispense it when appropriate. Like I said, this is happening every day already, you can see it in the hourly data on w…

Yes, we can do this for some dams, but not enough to move the needle. Hoover Dam’s generating power is quite tiny relative to the total storage needs, and if you add up all the other viable dams, you’ll find that it doesn’t add up to a lot.

To put it in context: Columbia River basin produces 40% of US hydroelectricity. Out of 14 dams on Columbia River, 12 of them produce (each individually) more electricity than Hoover Dam, most by a factor of 3x or more. Very little of it can be turned into storage as of today, what does not get used must be spilled.

This is not to say that using dams for energy storage is a bad idea, it’s not. It just will not work well in practice with most of currently existing dams, at least without huge retrofits and/or screwing over downstream water consumers and upstream reservoir users.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you think this is a realistic possibility for France, a nation that loves nuclear? Have any evidence of these regulations? What regulations can we change? I've looked and looked and never found somebody saying "these regulations are unnecessary" but it's trivial to find examples of management not taking the regulations seriously and then paying for it when they cut corners (basically all the welding for the AP1000…

If you look at the cost overruns in GA quite a number of people have come out and said that no one wants to criticize the NRC, seemingly because they can make your life hell. And change orders, and the like were listed as one of the reasons for the overruns, how much of that do you think is some engineer who designed the plant waking up one day and deciding something needs to be changed, or is it a case of the NRC ni…

None of the exposed I have seen mention anything about NRC specific regulations. It's just bad management processes dictating sloppy first attempts at design, leading to literally unconstructable designs, followed by even worse management processes for getting feedback and changes, or any sort of streamlining to allow agile response.

Imagine a huge waterfall design, with the architects being part of a completely different company than the implementers, and months long turn around to get clarification on any aspect or to get the designers to sign off on the necessary changes for anything to happen.

People are not afraid to criticize the NRC, it falls out of people's mouth so easily. But if they are actually afraid of the NRC, why are they so willing to provide critique, but unwilling to suggest the exact things that are the problem?

More likely you have a bunch of substandard folks unwilling to take any sort of responsibility for their actions or for management and instead blame a third party.

Suppose that any one of these companies spent a tiny tiny fraction of their money of proposing changes to regulations that would allow them to build effectively? Why don't we see any sort of proposals like that?

As for nuscale, this is a perfect example of using the NRC as a scapegoat and being unwilling to look at the true source of their problems:

https://www.power-eng.com/nuclear/report-claims-serious-prob...

I am still waiting for some sort of example of the NRC layering on something unnecessary, after six years of begging people making the claim to produce one shred of evidence.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the NRC is the problem, then why do we see identical cost overruns and schedule delays for France, Finland, and the UK? I don't think we can blame the NRC for this. There's something deeper.

That's fair. But what about South Korea, China, India, Turkey? In China you can't probably trust the official cost numbers (I'm not even trying to google for them). But you can't deny the astonishing pace they've built in the last decade: in 2012 they had 12 GW of nuclear capacity, in 2022 this went to 52 GW. 40 GW in one decade. France built 41 GW of capacity between 1980 and 1990, and the US 44 GW between 1970 and…

Those countries have costs of labor far far below Western countries. There are also huge questions about corruption and actual work performed. For example, Sourh Korea, the least corrupt country there with the highest cost of labor, put executives in jail for their fraud on safety certifications.

My personal hypothesis is that nuclear is only kind of affordable for a very narrow band of technological advancement, where labor is still cheap enough but tech capability has not advanced too much. After your technological capacities advance far enough, labor is better spent on other tech than building massive cathedrals.

As for China, try comparing nuclear builds to a single quarter of solar or storage output. It's a big country, and China's investment in nuclear is proof that even in a country known for excellent skills in managing massive construction projects, it's not really giving renewables a run for their money.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#289
post #94
post #50

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was established in 1975. Since then, no plant license that was initially submitted to the NRC has started operations. Plant Vogtle was approved by the Atomic Energy Commission (the predecessor to the NRC). Their license was grandfathered in. Building this reactor required a new reactor license (not plant license). Shortly after the reactor design was approved and construction started…

It’s brings a lot confidence that a nuclear power was built through a legal loophole.

Because the regulatory environment is inhospitable to new plants?

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative isn't carbon emission, the alternative is far cheaper wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, battery storage (both lithium and many others) The only question is if nuclear can offer something compelling to keep it in the mix. We have roughly 100 1GW of nuclear reactors in the US that are reaching end of life, and 90% of those communities would like to see replacements to keep the jobs in town. However, nobod…

The only reason Vogtle was built was because of the fixed price contract Westinghouse signed. Just as in the first nuclear buildout in the 1960s, fixed price contracts revealed themselves to be ruinous for the NPP builder. No utility going forward is going to sign a contract that puts them on the hook for cost escalation (which turned out to be this contract too, once Westinghouse went bankrupt.)

And EDF learned the hard way at Olkiluoto about saying they can build something at a specified price.

The only way for nuclear or be built in advanced economies is to have some government provide subsidies far beyond what renewables have ever reviewed. And at least with renewables there was the goal of making it cheaper for the next round of production. We don't that get that benefit when we throw an extra $10B at a nuclear build.

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