What exactly do you find unconvincing? Just comparing grid storage needs vs EV’s suggests battery production capacity isn’t going to be an issue so it simplifies to cost across say 20+ years.
There’s a lot of very simplistic analysis that makes things seem vastly worse but you don’t need crazy assumptions for things to look reasonable. Basically the more sources of energy you can add to the mix the cheaper things become as you only include them when you save money. Thus if you ignore Wind in an estimate adding wind can only lower costs, ditto for nuclear, geothermal, etc.
Hydro is reliable and better than continuous power because it’s flexible enough you can fill in gaps based on what you forecast production will be across the next week. US only gets 6.2% of its power from hydro so the rest of the world actually looks better than these numbers.
How much Solar to build is part of a complex optimization problem, simplify it 2c/kWh of capacity but 1/2 of all solar power is wasted over a year ~= 4c/kWh. Further, let’s assume 1/2 of all solar is used directly with the rest available to charge daily batteries again pessimistic with that kind of oversupply and HVDC lines etc but whatever. 50% - 5% (hydro) = 45% of total demand from batteries. (Wind drops this by a lot.)
Projecting LCOE for batteries and Battery degradation is closely correlated with use so 120$/MWh is again high long term.
Now our worst case is something like 4c/kWh (solar/hydro) + 12c/kWh (batteries) * 45% = 9.4c/kWh for 24/7/365 power with zero fossil fuels and zero nuclear. On the surface that might seem terrible or awesome depending on what your local rates look like, but this was a very pessimistic estimate.
Our pro nuclear investor needs to be pessimistic in the other direction. Remember demand is shifted to cheaper nighttime rates, if daytime electricity is cheaper then nighttime use drops further. Baseline numbers of say 4c/kWh production + 80$/MWh batteries * 30% = 6.4c/kWh 24/7/365. If you’re considering building nuclear and projecting 60+ years out those kind of numbers represent a real threat without any dramatic breakthroughs.
PS: You can plug your own assumptions in here, but remember people are trying to minimize costs and we already have existing infrastructure that isn’t being replaced that quickly. I doubt we’ll average under 20% natural gas within 20 years due to flexibility, which dramatically reduces the need for batteries and excess solar. That sounds bad, but mix in significant EV adoption and it still becomes a vast reduction in CO2 emissions, while even lower costs discourage Nuclear.