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First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

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Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#141
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is true when the market price is fairly static and doesn't change much. This is how it used to be when fossil fueled power dominated the grid, since the biggest cost is the fuel and that could scale based on demand. For EU this is no longer the case. The difference in market price between low and high can be above 100x. In theory a power plant could earn as much in 4 days as an other plant earn in a year worth o…

Those high points are better addressed by such things as hydrogen-burning turbines. Hydrogen produced from excess renewables during the price troughs, stored underground, then burned at the peaks. Because the capacity factor of these turbines would be low the cost of fuel would be acceptable, and their capital cost would be an order of magnitude below what a nuclear plant would cost, per unit of power output. Europe…

People are naturally allowed to invest in what ever technology they think will fit the role best, such as green hydrogen. No one is investing in that, there exist no hydrogen-burning turbines that burn green hydrogen, but someone could become the first and do that.

Producers of green hydrogen are currently more interested in delivering green steel, which pays much better than hydrogen-burning turbines. The general idea is that this will in the future reduce prices down to energy grid levels, and a researcher here in Sweden working on such project estimated prices to drop to those levels around ~2060-2080.

This could happen much earlier if prices continue to increase as they do, but who knows. It would make for a good A/B testing to produce both and see which one was the cheaper option, and if the green hydrogen power plant fail they can always just produce more hydrogen for steel production.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a trivial amount of storage for a trivial amount of money. Do the math, don't hand wave. The Eland project provides 24 hour power with only 4hr of storage. That's the demand curve in action.

> It's a trivial amount of storage for a trivial amount of money. Do the math, don't hand wave. Sure thing! Right now we have an annual battery production rate of 500 GWh globally [1]. If we're going to use global battery production figures, we need to use global electricity consumption, which is about 70 TWh per day [2]. How much storage we'll need varies, depending on the mix of solar and wind. Estimates I can find…

The US alone has 800GWh of battery plants in the pipeline, to come online before 2026.[1] China has multiple TWh's worth. We can build 35TWh or even 350TWh of batteries a lot faster and than we can build the multiple TW of nuclear plants that would be necessary to decarbonize electricity without storage.

1: https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2022/11/178584.pdf

> The reality is that peak energy demand happens at night

Peak net energy demand happens at night. Peak gross demand is during the day.

> Eland can do this demand shift because other producers are picking up the slack.

Eland is producing at a rate identical to the California demand curve, it's in their contract. It's the solar producers who don't have solar along with consumer rooftop solar that's causing the duck curve daytime demand drop.

> If I have a plant that produces 1,000 MW during the date and 100=MW at night, that's technically 24 hours of production. But clearly this is not the same thing as a nuclear plant that produces 1000 MW at all hours.

But the former costs 1/10th of the latter, so you build 10 of them to get 1000MW at night and 10000MW during the day.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#143
My 2c:

Why nuclear power is a dumb idea.

Countries with nuclear reactors: 32.

Countries which have had nuclear leaks or meltdowns: 15.

Number of nuclear leaks and meltdowns since 1952 (only those which resulted in loss of human life or >US$50K property damage): ~100.

About 60% of those have been in the USA, allegedly the most advanced country in the world with the bestest regulation of such things.

Note that the USA requirements for nuclear reactor waste (yes, they produce toxic waste; they are not clean), last time I checked, required the canisters to be able to survive for 300 years. The waste lasts longer than 300 years. So all you can do with the waste, at best, is leave it for someone else to handle later.

Two years ago the USA had a leak which spilled ~400,000 gallons of radioactive water into a major river system, and it was covered up for two years. You can not trust governments or nuclear power companies about this stuff.

The entire ecosystem is getting poisoned by all that waste water Japan is dumping. Almost 50% of countries with nuclear reactors have had significant leaks and meltdowns, and it only takes one significant event to screw up the entire natural environment.

Finally: If you are not willing to have a nuclear reactor right beside your house, but are willing to have one beside someone else's house, you are a coward and are not really in favour of nuclear power.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a trivial amount of storage for a trivial amount of money. Do the math, don't hand wave. The Eland project provides 24 hour power with only 4hr of storage. That's the demand curve in action.

> It's a trivial amount of storage for a trivial amount of money. Do the math, don't hand wave. Sure thing! Right now we have an annual battery production rate of 500 GWh globally [1]. If we're going to use global battery production figures, we need to use global electricity consumption, which is about 70 TWh per day [2]. How much storage we'll need varies, depending on the mix of solar and wind. Estimates I can find…

Excellent comment.

> If we're going to use global battery production figures, we need to use global electricity consumption, which is about 70 TWh per day

Don't forget about all the energy usage that isn't currently electricity, but will need to be! Especially heating & transportation.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is dope and we should build tons of it, but it ain’t our only hope; plenty of other alternatives to build at the same time. Eg hydro, overprovisioning solar or wind, transmission to remove local weather variations, coupling wind and solar, demand flexibility. Fervo just started its first full-scale new-gen geothermal plant, for instance; 24/7 firm power. You might like David Roberts interview with Tim Latimer…

Hydro isn’t clean (extreme ecosystem damage, both up and down stream); and if we dammed every river it’s a drop in the bucket of what we need. I don’t know how far solar/wind can get us. But hydro sucks more than most people realize.

Hydro is only source of renewable power that generates >50% of any country's electricity grid: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_renewable...

Wind caps out at 42% with Denmark, solar at 15% in Australia. Many countries have nearly 100% of their electricity coming from hydroelectricity. Besides nuclear power, hydroelectricity is one of the few non-intermittent sources of renewable energy - sure, rainfall does technically make hydro intermittent in a sense, but it's not going to change output on a dime when the sun goes down or the wind stops blowing.

Well, you also have geothermal power, but that's even more geographically constrained than hydro.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#146
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cloud cover doesn't stop all production, it just reduces it. Just build more solar and more storage and it will still be a fraction of the cost of nuclear. I could answer point by point but all of your "failures" are artificially constrained.

Cloud cover reduces solar production by 10-25%. If you need 10x overproduction, plus storage it's not cheaper than nuclear. That's not even counting factors like axial tilt (during winter the Earth is rotated away form the sun, reducing incoming light per M^2 of land), and the transmission infrastructure required to accommodate the decentralized nature of solar and wind [1] (which nuclear conveniently avoids since it…

Fossil fuel companies are those mustache-twirling profit optimization villains, and there is demonstrated evidence that they have run a decades long campaign against any form of energy that is not fossil fuel...

10-25% short fall doesn't require 10x over capacity, it requires a mix of overcapacity + storage + energy conservation measures.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#147
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also pumped hydro and other gravity batteries pumped hydro is not a winner. the locations that could be used are few and far between and require massive amounts of water and wreak ecological nightmare on a wide area.

The locations where pumped hydro could be used are extremely abundant. Remember, it doesn't have to be on a river. It can be out in a desert! Here's an example of a project being built in Nevada. Basin and Range geography, more vertical relief than you can shake a stick at. Look how small this thing is for the capacity! https://www.cityofelynv.gov/pdf/CityCouncil2021/cc1-28-21/Wh... https://www.whitepinepumpedstorage…

The problem with pumped-hydro is - and all storage based solutions is - how low can you let the storage get before it's an emergency?

Electricity is a vital service: completely vital. Without it, modern civilization halts. It might be annoying being unable to make a cup of coffee, but municipal water and sewage need electricity to work. You go without power for a week, and the entire wastewater infrastructure will start shutting down. Refrigeration and food storage fails. Even backup fuel storage becomes a liability because you need electricity to pump it around.

So the question is, how low can you let the reservoir get? Because it's not about how long you could run going from 100% to 0% - it's how much of it can you use. And we have a model for this, in the form of another service: city townwater supplies.

In Australia, water restrictions go into effect when we hit slow - we lose storage capacity over the course of months, not days.

And this is a resource which is dependent on electricity to supply (we also have a desalination plant, so we have some guaranteed capacity).

So within that context then - i.e. imagine you're planning a nation-state electricity supply, what are your risks? - how good does pumped hydro - or any storage-based solution - look, when your requirement is "the power cannot go off - ever". Put on your systems engineering hat, treat it like a software deployment - what level of redundancy and overbuild would you want when you're told "this is a mission critical, safety-critical system consuming an intermittently available resource". How much capacity and overbuild would you believe is necessary to have confidence, or even decision-making capability, when pressured?

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#148
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non-interment kilowatt hours are actually less valuable. Demand dips at night, the weekend, spring and fall etc. So when negotiating power purchase agreements grid operators are pricing most of that production when it’s least valuable. Battery backed solar is becoming really popular with grid operators because you get the upsides of load following without the overhead of mostly idle production. The economics get inte…

Incorrect, demand peaks right as night starts and the sun goes down. See that peak [1] at 9pm? Battery backed solar is not even remotely feasible. To put this in perspective, the USA alone uses ~11.5 TWh of electricty each day. A battery to last through the night is over 5,000 GWh. 1. https://b698061.smushcdn.com/698061/wp-content/uploads/2023/...

That’s for March 31st, presumably in the northern hemisphere. I assume the curve looks dramatically different for July 31st.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#149
post #73
post #50

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was established in 1975. Since then, no plant license that was initially submitted to the NRC has started operations. Plant Vogtle was approved by the Atomic Energy Commission (the predecessor to the NRC). Their license was grandfathered in. Building this reactor required a new reactor license (not plant license). Shortly after the reactor design was approved and construction started…

The NRC was established just about when the first nuclear buildout collapsed under the weight of its own foolishness. Massive cost overruns did nuclear no favors whatsoever, clearly inadequate safety (especially on those first generation BWRs; hello Fukushima), and (most devastatingly) the deregulation of the US electricity grid, with PURPA (in 1978) and later steps opening grids to non-utility providers. Nuclear pro…

Fukushima shows that even early nuclear reactors are incredibly safe. You take an aging plant based on an outdated design, construct it in an unsafe location, then hit it with the fifth-largest earthquake ever recorded, then hit it with a 20 foot high tsunami, and then it explodes... and what were the casualties? One worker and maybe 50 early deaths due to cancers. A typical coal power plant kills more people every year from the air pollution it spews out. And don't forget that the cause of the meltdown was an earthquake and tsunami that killed 20,000 people!

If we judged other forms of power generation the way we judge nuclear, we simply wouldn't have electricity.

Re: First new US nuclear reactor in decades enters commercial operation in Georgia

#150
post #4

“seven years late and $17 billion over budget. At its full output of 1,100 megawatts of electricity” Ignoring interest for those 7 years and all other costs just the overage is insane. 17 billion / ( 1,100,000 kW * 90% capacity factor * 24 hour * 365 days * 50 years) = 4 cents per kWh. Add interest etc and someone lost an incredible amount of money on this project.

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