Whether or not this turns out to be real the whole incident has been extremely entertaining, way more than I would have expected. Replication attempts being documented in real time on Twitter and livestreamed on Twitch, news about infighting and drama among the researchers who published the paper, constant fluxations in the betting markets as new news comes out. It's been a wild ride.
welcome to the new world...It is fast, efficient and very interesting...
LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
311–320 of 659 posts
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#312Isn't it sufficient to have another lab confirm that the existing sample is a super conductor? Then we can all sprint to replication.
Yes, the fact that everyone is trying to replicate the process rather than validate the existing material is very weird. Replication is hard, validation is much easier. If they've had this material for years, just send some off to a few labs... People claiming unusual abilities/etc usually focus on a very difficult ceremony/situation/feeling/process rather than the outcome. Ghosts, spiritual experiences, etc. really…
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#313Isn't it sufficient to have another lab confirm that the existing sample is a super conductor? Then we can all sprint to replication.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any system that is in control and doesn't actually manage to stop progress can make this claim, monarchies and socialist systems included. Capitalism is very good at maximizing the amount of money available for investment, so it probably is uniquely qualified to make a claim to be the best system for encouraging progress, but just as clearly it aggressively funnels technology down paths that are tuned for maximum val…
For what it’s worth, not much, but me personal believe that you believe that without evidence and primary due to the propaganda governments have fed you to scapegoat the evil “capitalists” and markets as a way to deflect blame for serious problems away from themselves. Governments need to regulate to prevent harm, we all agree. Yet they claim it’s the markets doing it! No, markets do what is most efficient and optima…
The private sector is bigger than the public sector, both in terms of dollar expenditure and in terms of political power. Politicians have to be vetted by rich people (the campaign finance process) before they are even options for election. If you're wealthy enough to monetize policy changes, it's easy to lobby with positive net expected value, if not, it isn't. The whims of the wealthy are in the driver's seat, the will of the people is not.
Quick exercise. Many people are confused about the social class they inhabit. Tax policy is the easiest way to demonstrate the actual reality, because whoever is in charge always decides that someone else should pay the taxes. Take out last year's 1040. I want you to look at 3 lines: Line 1, what you earn from working, Line 7, what you earn from owning assets, and Line 9+3/4, your unrealized capital gains. Line 1 has high tax, Line 7 has low tax, and Line 9+3/4 has no tax. Who do you think decided these tax levels? Populists? Do you feel in charge here?
> markets do what is most efficient and optimal given the rules
Markets don't maximize value in the colloquial sense, the value that they optimize is wealth-weighted. Feed a starving orphan? Zero market value because the orphan has no wealth to pay you. Merge up all the banks so they can load up on risk and arrange for bailouts when they go bust? Enormous market value because it makes rich investors richer, the single most weighted value in all the world. The market will ejaculate capital and connections all over this brilliant value-creating enterprise. Oh, and part of it will involve bribing public officials so you can even blame the government for allowing you to rob the plebs. Lol.
Ok, so the markets don't do what people want, they do what wealth-weighted people want. What rich people want. Is that so bad? You and I still get enough weight in the process to live a decent life. Besides, Warren Buffet seems pretty humble and someone has to be diligent about the high level investment decisions, right? Well, here's the problem: financial assets are a moral hazard. Cynically, capitalism entitles rich people to get paid for being rich. Passive income is the ultimate luxury, the most valuable commodity, and rich people indulge exorbitantly. Even Warren Buffet. Especially Warren Buffet. When his passive income streams are threatened, the happy investment grandpa turns into a nasty selfish asshole out to bust the balls of the people doing the real work at the companies he owns (seriously, look into the terms of the BNSF negotiations) because on the opposite side of a passive stream is (arguably) a stream of unreciprocated labor. The counterargument is that Labor Theory of Value is clearly bunk because there's more to value than labor, but just as clearly there is moral hazard in letting someone who doesn't produce the surplus value decide what to do with the surplus value. Wouldn't they just stuff it in their pockets? Yes. That's literally what the stock market is. The entire private sector is organized explicitly for the purpose of stuffing pockets and everything else is merely an emergent consequence of that.
Maybe that's ok. After all, every contract is individually agreed to, right? Problem: one side gets much more control over the rules of the game than the other, so consent is dubious. On the first day of business school they teach the prisoner's dilemma, where freedom to control the rules of a game trumps freedom to choose inside of a game. In theory, competition keeps businesses is check, but in practice businesses do everything they can to avoid competition, some successfully, so does it really?
In any case, every system needs investment and investment is all about reducing consumption today (which rich people are in a unique position to do) in order to spend the money instead on a factory or a risky venture or something that is expected to make the world better tomorrow, returning a cut to the investor, rewarding success and punishing failure. This is good for everyone, right? Well, yes... when it plays out that way. But markets are amoral. They don't really know if you created value or extracted value and they don't care. The money in your pocket doesn't care if you are a highway robber or robber baron or someone who worked hard for that money. As far as markets are concerned, "create problem, sell solution" is just as legitimate an enterprise as solving an actual preexisting problem. Better, even, because fundamental value creation is hard and you have to compete, while monopolization is all about not competing. What do the best performing market sectors over the last few decades have in common (health care, housing, and education)? Monopolized scarcity. Is this really best for society? You notice how business school tends to focus less on building a better product and more on building a better moat? They know what they are doing, and while it's the best strategy for them, is this really the best way to run society? By maximizing free money for the rich and observing that a somewhat functional society springs up as a side effect?
Capitalism is great at growth and terrible at stewardship. It wins a land grab but it leaves behind a nasty class structure. Is it worth it? I have no idea. I just try to win. I'm a lot less certain than I used to be, though.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#315Earlier quoted context omitted.
How do you know for sure that the existing sample was actually produced by the LK-99 process? Even if it was produced by the LK-99 process, how do you know if all of the required steps and conditions to achieve replication are adequately documented in the process? Reference the FOGBANK debacle.
Why would that matter? It's not like they could just be taking an over-the-counter room temperature superconductor and passing it off as something they made. If the thing exists and someone can make it, the specific process doesn't matter (but also why would they make it, publish a fake process and then go through all this rigamarole?).
If the specified procedure is incorrect, then we can't make it. It doesn't need to be an elaborate con, it could just be a reasearcher misread a measurement, or recorded the wrong number, or their feedstock was contaminated. Replication ensures that the recipe includes the secret sauce that makes it actually work.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#316Isn't it sufficient to have another lab confirm that the existing sample is a super conductor? Then we can all sprint to replication.
There’s some emerging evidence that it may be a new class of “1-d” superconducting material that only superconducts in certain places/directions. Will turn into big academic fight to redefine superconductivity if so, I think.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#317Please can someone explain this to me ?
This kind of discovery would be worth a Nobel prize and would probably give us access to a whole range of new/improved technologies in the future.
All of this happened maybe 10 or so days ago, so other labs are trying to replicate the procedure to verify that the claims are legit, as I said, this would be a huge discovery so it has generated a lot of excitement everywhere in the world.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#318EDIT: Correction, I got the link to the video saying deposited onto uranium [2] from [1] but that is not the actual link from their web page which is [3] and still says deposited onto copper. So someone on eevblog.com was having some fun.
[1] https://www.eevblog.com/2023/07/31/eevblog-1555-korean-lk-99...
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#319Isn't it sufficient to have another lab confirm that the existing sample is a super conductor? Then we can all sprint to replication.
Yes, the fact that everyone is trying to replicate the process rather than validate the existing material is very weird. Replication is hard, validation is much easier. If they've had this material for years, just send some off to a few labs... People claiming unusual abilities/etc usually focus on a very difficult ceremony/situation/feeling/process rather than the outcome. Ghosts, spiritual experiences, etc. really…
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#320Isn't it sufficient to have another lab confirm that the existing sample is a super conductor? Then we can all sprint to replication.
At the end of the day, materials science is still science. The institutional framework is optimized for a very specific process, so it's generally faster to let the process play out as usual rather than go and cut corners. Rest assured; there are a lot of scientists out there! We can afford to let a few of them chase clouds once in a while. In any case... the creation process described in the original paper is relati…
But what if the probability of synthesis failure is very high? This seems to be the case given then "1000 experiments" history of the original scientists. If they have a golden sample that is at least extremely paramagnetic, that would be huge.
And again... This is no ordinary claim. Everything in the procurement chain would be expedited. No sane lab would turn it down.