Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age LK-99 Age (source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36869209 )
Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age I would add Steel Age here LK-99 Age
Silicon?
LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
101–110 of 659 posts
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
This type of instictive negative reaction to prediction markets is, unfortunately, common, but, I think, misguided. Prediction markets are one of the (or just, the?) best ways of aggregating knowledge from multiple sources and producing the best predictions. Having good legible predictions of impactful events such as LK-99 replication is extremely useful for society - it would be an invaluable input for a savvy polic…
Absolutely and people might be interested that in this case the prediction market for LK-99 is reacting in real time to new tweets from people trying to replicate. The “yes” spike to 32c yesterday was in response to a twitter account posting an image of a levitating grain in a tube. The credibility of that replication attempt was then evaluated by many and the market backed off afterwards. There is always a subtle an…
Because markets aren't nearly as clever as is always claimed.
Lehmann Brothers anyone?
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
Absolutely and people might be interested that in this case the prediction market for LK-99 is reacting in real time to new tweets from people trying to replicate. The “yes” spike to 32c yesterday was in response to a twitter account posting an image of a levitating grain in a tube. The credibility of that replication attempt was then evaluated by many and the market backed off afterwards. There is always a subtle an…
There is always a subtle anti-markets theme on many HN debates, likely from highly educated ans literate posters. I believe we still in this age simply don’t provide proper education on the massive benefits that markets bring to so mang problems I think we are all too aware of markets and their benefits and disbenefits. It's not clear why you think the "education" is missing only in one direction.
You don’t observe a frequent knee jerk like anti-markets reaction from comments across HN?
What are good examples of their “disbenefits”?
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
What do these prediction markets produce ? Some people are saying "yes" and others are saying "no", and the answer is either "yes" or "no", but why bother spending money on predicting when society can spend money on replicating it? Wouldn't an actual replication attempt be more useful? > The latter is a perfectly reasonable thing to do - it's not easy for an average person to "pay off some lab", but if they provide l…
They're producing the wisdom of the crowd, which is a real and highly accurate piece of information. It's quite difficult and expensive to produce information as fast and reliable by other means. And they don't cost much, it's mostly money being moved around. edit: I interpreted it as asking wether prediction markets in general produce value. In this specific case I'm 100% with you, they're absolutely useless in pred…
"They're producing the wisdom of the crowd, which is a real and highly accurate piece of information."
I have strong doubts, that the wisdom of the crowd here is competent in judging whether a revolutionary new superconductor is real, or not.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#105Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#106Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…
It's like they say, when all you have is a hammer...
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
Someone on Twitter spoke on this, so I cant' confirm its accuracy. They said that the reagents for this are usually made in China. As soon as this paper was published, labs in China bought out the reserves and they became hard to source in the West.
Weren't the raw materials lead, copper, sulfur and phosphorous or something like that? Seems hard to to buy out elements that are so common in industrial and chemical processes.
Those are the raw atomic elements, which are not the products you just put into your oven.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is always a subtle anti-markets theme on many HN debates, likely from highly educated ans literate posters. I believe we still in this age simply don’t provide proper education on the massive benefits that markets bring to so mang problems I think we are all too aware of markets and their benefits and disbenefits. It's not clear why you think the "education" is missing only in one direction.
You don’t observe a frequent knee jerk like anti-markets reaction from comments across HN? What are good examples of their “disbenefits”?
You don’t observe a frequent knee jerk like anti-markets reaction from comments across HN?
I find HN one of the most balanced online forums on most subjects.
What are good examples of their “disbenefits”?
The race to the bottom is all around us.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
How about this scenario: I am the PI of a laboratory. I buy up the market and (falsely) announce that I succeeded in replication. Sell and make profit. Then a couple of days later I announce that I made a terrible mistake. How do you prevent this scenario? I did nothing illegal, I just "not noticed the mistake I made".
A version of that probably happened last night with Lk-99, the “Iris” replication claim. Why do think it’s such a problem? Those are the risks of speculating and the market adjusted back downwards in very short order. If Iris was a manipulator the gains were minimal and fleeting. The anti-markets comments all over this are so unfortunate and misguided. By your own logic don’t you just prove that a real lab is now pot…
But a fraud was perpetrated and the scammer got away. The markets are supposed to ignore that? Money was taken out of the market by a bad actor. If anything this encourages quick fraud over slow honesty.
Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
This type of instictive negative reaction to prediction markets is, unfortunately, common, but, I think, misguided. Prediction markets are one of the (or just, the?) best ways of aggregating knowledge from multiple sources and producing the best predictions. Having good legible predictions of impactful events such as LK-99 replication is extremely useful for society - it would be an invaluable input for a savvy polic…
Not to take away from your point, but there is a better way than prediction markets, and that's careful objective research by non-experts ( https://goodjudgment.com/ ). It's been shown that teams of such researchers consistently beat prediction markets on these sorts of topics. Anecdotal evidence suggests it might be that the presence of experts and cultural preconceptions corrupt prediction markets enough to diverge…
> It's been shown that teams of such researchers consistently beat prediction markets on these sorts of topics.
This sounds like free money.