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LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

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Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#41

Post by amelius »

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #20

Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…

> Shouldn't the minimum requirements be a magnet and the material sample, to demonstrate it floating through the meissner effect?

The minimum requirements should be that it doesn't heat up when you send a large current through it.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#42

Post by yreg »

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #20

Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…

Are there any prediction markets where you can bet money on this?

I thought people talked only about Moneyfold, which is just a game. (You cannot take money out of it, although you can use it to make a charity donation.)

I suspect that people on actual real money market would make different predictions to Manifold.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#44

Post by yorwba »

yreg wrote: post #42
TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #20

Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…

Are there any prediction markets where you can bet money on this? I thought people talked only about Moneyfold, which is just a game. (You cannot take money out of it, although you can use it to make a charity donation.) I suspect that people on actual real money market would make different predictions to Manifold.

Polymarket uses real money, I think https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#45

Post by eurleif »

yreg wrote: post #42
TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #20

Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…

Are there any prediction markets where you can bet money on this? I thought people talked only about Moneyfold, which is just a game. (You cannot take money out of it, although you can use it to make a charity donation.) I suspect that people on actual real money market would make different predictions to Manifold.

https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#46

Post by alangibson »

From what I've gathered, the ingredients of LK99 are common but cooking the right way is difficult. Supposedly the team itself only gets it right 1 time in 10.

There have also been a lot of complaints that the patents and papers are missing info you'd want to have when reproducing. So that's making it even harder to reproduce. The upshot tho is that the discoverers seem to be available for tips by email.

All in all were going to have to wait more than a few days for reproduction it seems.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#47

Post by ggm »

throwaway849755 wrote: post #21

Is there any HN effect by which enough contrary early opinion here could increase the odds of eventual triumph? On the chance that there is, I will do my part: In mice.

Morphic Resonance theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Sheldrake

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#49

Post by hobofan »

matusp wrote: post #38

It is interesting to see how much of the replication is done by the Chinese and how little is done by the Western countries. Is this the difference between the making-stuff-happen attitude and the sclerotic attitude?

I doubt the table is representative of actual replication efforts going on, as according to some tweets, suppliers everywhere are out of precursors due to a large amount of orders. I would guess that there are many labs that started trying to replicate as a side-project with an attitude of "if it replicates we'll go public, if not, we don't, as we don't want to spend a lot of efforts on retries".

Based on that trying to connect that to wider cultural innovation trends seems quite far-fetched.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#50

Post by h2odragon »

matusp wrote: post #38

It is interesting to see how much of the replication is done by the Chinese and how little is done by the Western countries. Is this the difference between the making-stuff-happen attitude and the sclerotic attitude?

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