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‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

theguardian.com

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Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#61

Post by myshpa »

throwanem wrote: post #22
myshpa wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worse the situation becomes, the less will be done. We could have taken action even 10, 20, or 40 years ago, but so far, we have done nothing significant to prevent it from happening. The longer we wait, the more expensive and complicated the solutions will become. Politicians are often reluctant to make unpopular moves that might anger their base, so they tend to focus on short-term goals rather than long-term s…

> the exponential growth of the human population driven by our financial system's need for constant growth. Yet, we have not even begun to start discussing that Probably a good place to begin that discussion would be with some sort of demonstration that this is actually a thing that's happening. It seems like a difficult [1] argument to construct, so you should probably get on that. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/…

Thanks ... you're right, I was thinking ahead, that should not be there.

"the exponential growth driven by our financial system's need for constant growth"

I've updated the original comment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Acceleration

"In tracking the effects of human activity upon the Earth, a number of socioeconomic and earth system parameters are utilized including population, economics, water usage, food production, transportation, technology, greenhouse gases, surface temperature, and natural resource usage"

https://futureearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/great_acc...

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#62

Post by myshpa »

basisword wrote: post #11
myshpa wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worse the situation becomes, the less will be done. We could have taken action even 10, 20, or 40 years ago, but so far, we have done nothing significant to prevent it from happening. The longer we wait, the more expensive and complicated the solutions will become. Politicians are often reluctant to make unpopular moves that might anger their base, so they tend to focus on short-term goals rather than long-term s…

>> We've so far done nothing to stop it from happening. That is completely untrue. We’ve certainly not done enough but the world of 40, 20 and even 10 years ago was much worse. Unfortunately most of the changes have been ones forced on individuals while businesses and governments continue to pollute and cause damage.

You're right that the system is set up in such a way, that it often prevents meaningful changes on the individual level. However, the individuals are still consumers of those businesses, and our habits are driving their profits and further destruction.

The change has to come on both levels.

Let's not use it as an excuse to do nothing.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/31/avoiding...

Avoiding meat and dairy is ‘single biggest way’ to reduce your impact on Earth

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#63

Post by 7e »

brmgb wrote: post #28
hermannj314 wrote: post #19

In other news, population is declining among Japanese and this is a huge crisis as well. What exactly does life look like per capita if population continues to increase or stay the same? How is the solution to this problem not exactly what the Japanese are doing? Time to kill off our pyramid scheme economic growth models and barbaric bronze age "be fruitful and multiply" religions.

You are 30 years late. The world at large didn’t wait for you. Fertility has been declining worldwide for decades and been subreplacement in the USA and Europe for quite sometimes. South East Asia and Africa are slowly getting there too. Population is only an issue because of demographic lag. It’s already sorted out. We just have to pass the bump.

The U.S. population is still growing, which of course may be lag, but can also be caused by immigration. Countries need to keep the population growing to support Ponzi-schemes like retirement benefits. I expect poorer countries to continue to be baby factories indefinitely.

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#64

Post by _y5hn »

jacquesm wrote: post #47
myshpa wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in about 20 to 50 years That's the optimistic timeline :) I've read somewhere that up to half of Antarctic sea ice could easily disappear in hours or days, given right conditions. Greenland is not looking good either. https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/coming-soon When Greenland melts completely global sea levels will rise about 20 feet, or 7 meters. We aren’t talking about “if” anymore. We are way past that. Now,…

That's the big problem with anything involving feeback loops. There is a domain where it's unstable and then a small change can cause big and surprisingly rapid effects. Nature is full of such tricky stuff and there is unfortunately no manual so we are learning a lot of this stuff by experiencing it first hand.

Analogy time:

You use a wooden chair for reaching up in high places. Imagine you're a short person and utterly dependent on this chair. It works for 20 year, and it helps you reach what you need in all that time. You never notice much except for some familiar creaking. The chair works every time, and you just take it for granted as a handy tool to have around.

But when the wood in that chair snaps, it happens all at once. Even if just a single part of that chair momentarily fails. Gravity, leverage, falling backwards with no way to protect your head. And it happens so fast, there's no time to think about it while it happens.

Luckily your husband put a cushion on the floor exactly where you'd fall with your neck, because he anticipated this happening. He just didn't know when it'll happen.

You wake up a bit dazed, and a bit wiser to how the world works. How fragile and complex systems can fail all at once and too fast.

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#65

Post by throwanem »

myshpa wrote: post #61
throwanem wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the exponential growth of the human population driven by our financial system's need for constant growth. Yet, we have not even begun to start discussing that Probably a good place to begin that discussion would be with some sort of demonstration that this is actually a thing that's happening. It seems like a difficult [1] argument to construct, so you should probably get on that. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/…

Thanks ... you're right, I was thinking ahead, that should not be there. "the exponential growth driven by our financial system's need for constant growth" I've updated the original comment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Acceleration "In tracking the effects of human activity upon the Earth, a number of socioeconomic and earth system parameters are utilized including population, economics, water usage, food pro…

Okay, that makes a lot more sense. Human overpopulation per se hasn't been a matter of plausible concern since the 70s; what is concerning is that the "green revolution" in agriculture is dependent on roughly our current level of technological development, and that's what has produced yields capable of supporting the human population at its current level.

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#66

Post by BasedAnon »

tda wrote: post #2

“It is very much outside our understanding of this system.” This is what worries me: climate change leading to entirely new regimes that we don't understand and thus can't model or predict with any accuracy. You just can't build a seawall for a sealevel rise of between 50 and 300 cm somewhere in about 20 to 50 years. Or for heatwaves of maximum 35 to 45 degrees, precipitation of max 20-100mm/hour, etc. Climate adapta…

faster... than expected you say?

https://www.fasterthanexpected.com/

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#67

Post by _y5hn »

revscat wrote: post #14
myshpa wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't believe there is anything we can do about the impending climate changes. But there is (something we could do). Climate change is caused by pollution and overconsumption. We're perfectly capable to change that ... we just don't want to. If we don't, the nature will force us. As it does with every species in overshoot. > all we can do is learn, prepare, and adapt But we don't know how it will play out. Imagin…

We would need to immediately stop the production and sale of all fossil fuels worldwide, at the point of a gun if necessary. The chances of this happening are zero.

We could theoretically stop all emissions today, and the warming would continue for decades and centuries from current CO2 in the atmosphere: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhou...

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#68

Post by myshpa »

throwanem wrote: post #65
myshpa wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks ... you're right, I was thinking ahead, that should not be there. "the exponential growth driven by our financial system's need for constant growth" I've updated the original comment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Acceleration "In tracking the effects of human activity upon the Earth, a number of socioeconomic and earth system parameters are utilized including population, economics, water usage, food pro…

Okay, that makes a lot more sense. Human overpopulation per se hasn't been a matter of plausible concern since the 70s; what is concerning is that the "green revolution" in agriculture is dependent on roughly our current level of technological development, and that's what has produced yields capable of supporting the human population at its current level.

> that's what has produced yields capable of supporting the human population at its current level

Those yields are fully dependent on fossil fuels, agree. But the methods used are extremely destructive (soils, biodiversity, pollution, energy ...).

That's too why the reform of agriculture (and switch to plant-based diets) is so desperately needed, and pronto.

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#69

Post by BasedAnon »

myshpa wrote: post #12
CrzyLngPwd wrote: post #6

I don't believe there is anything we can do about the impending climate changes. In my opinion all we can do is learn, prepare, and adapt.

> I don't believe there is anything we can do about the impending climate changes. But there is (something we could do). Climate change is caused by pollution and overconsumption. We're perfectly capable to change that ... we just don't want to. If we don't, the nature will force us. As it does with every species in overshoot. > all we can do is learn, prepare, and adapt But we don't know how it will play out. Imagin…

>Climate change is caused by pollution and overconsumption.

Which has already happened and is irreversible as far as we know

>We're perfectly capable to change that ... we just don't want to.

No, change on the scale that would be needed to mitigate (there is no reversing, only mitigation) would require mass casualties, because it would require deindustrialization.

>But we don't know how it will play out

Yes, but we know what may improve our chances.

Re: ‘Something weird is going on’: Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows

#70

Post by BasedAnon »

myshpa wrote: post #51
revscat wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We would need to immediately stop the production and sale of all fossil fuels worldwide, at the point of a gun if necessary. The chances of this happening are zero.

We should use fossil fuels to transition away from fossil fuels asap. And stop using them for things we don't need.

So that people in poorer countries can use more of them in our place to industrialize and then join everyone else in the gangrape of our environment!
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