This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years • Hacker News Board

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#211

Post by vkou » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 8:48 PM UTC

gottorf wrote: post #136

vkou wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The difference is that there's a lot of historical precedent against what you described, so we can reasonably expect the outcome of such an idea. Whereas we have exactly zero historical precedent to know whether or not climate change will even be a 'net plus'. (I do know that organ redistribution would definitely be a net plus, though. We kill one person, we save the lives of N people, the calculus seems to add up…

> we have exactly zero historical precedent to know whether or not climate change will even be a 'net plus'. My point exactly! If you respect Chesterton's fence, we shouldn't make radical changes to the status quo without clear and convincing proof that the change is worth the cost. Fossil fuels, as bad as they are, also brought up living standards for literally billions of people. There are still billions of people…

It takes incredible mental gymnastics, and a massive ideological blindspot to consider flooding our atmosphere with billions of tons of carbon, and causing a climate catastrophe to be 'the status quo'.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#212

Post by shdh » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 8:49 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #209

shdh wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but we draw a line at trying to avert a global climate disaster? USA isn't going to invade countries to hinder their development. Neither is China. Energy needs continue to increase.

But my point is that the US is hindering China's chip industry development just fine, without a single gunshot fired, and it's considered totally mundane. There are a lot of ways developed countries can nudge developing ones toward better energy efficiency. Many of them (like, say, funding solar arrays or nuclear plants) would actually benefit these countries. Some of them (say, higher customs tax for products made w…

Point taken, but I think we need more than a nudges.

Sure a lot of small 1% improvements can make a change, but we don't know if the curve is linear or exponential.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#213

Post by shdh » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 8:51 PM UTC

Gud wrote: post #183

yongjik wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped…

No. The _ruling elites_ of the western world conquered much of the world over the last 1000 years, including their (current) European subjects. I refuse to be guilted into thinking I’m somehow a bad man because what someone ultra privileged did, just because of my relative proximity.

You share a larger portion of this percentage of genetic information with some person from centuries ago, who fucking cares. Those people are simply detracting and not helping. I'd just ignore them. The signal to noise ratio of this site has taken a giga nose dive.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#214

Post by bryanlarsen » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 8:56 PM UTC

myshpa wrote: post #197

zosima wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But deforestation and the following biodiversity loss is a completely different problem than reducing CO2. And in general, very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation (and contrary to popular opinion, even large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either).

> very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation Reform of agriculture might be it. Agriculture is also the leading driver of deforestation (50% of pastures were forested in the past). > large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either But it could, it's probably the best tool in our arsenal. And it would not only affect CO2, but many of our other problems too (drou…

> If the world adopted a plant-based diet we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares (and free up an area the size of Africa).

No we wouldn't. Everybody gets cause and effect backwards on this one. They see that we're using essentially all of our arable land for food production and draw the conclusion that's how much is needed to produce the amount of food we currently produce.

But it's actually the other way around. We use all the land available because that's the cheapest way to produce the amount of food we need. If we had more land, we'd use it and food would be cheaper. If we had less land we'd produce the same amount of food, but it would be more expensive.

For an extreme example, we could probably feed 8 trillion people on the same amount of land by covering all of our arable land with greenhouses.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#215

Post by shdh » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 9:11 PM UTC

zosima wrote: post #165

toomuchtodo wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of those folks in the developing world are going to die from the new heat normal, and no one is going to do anything about it. Tragic to be sure. > To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. Without a hint of sarcasm or snark, life isn’t fair. We’re on a trajectory of progress (ener…

It's been tradition in Algeria to migrate to the coast during the summer-months, since forever. Other locations similarly popular is mountain regions. That's going to continue to work for many years and degrees to come, so I'm not sure if the problem really is as severe as you think.

Coastal properties in Western nations are the most expensive in general

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

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Post by wombat-man » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 9:14 PM UTC

valval wrote: post #198

wombat-man wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll just say that I agree that most people are not ready/willing to pay the price of real climate action in dollars today. We'll probably just have to pay down the line. I guess we'll see how bad it gets.

I’m surprised that so many highly analytical minds (such as HN posters I’d assume are) mistakenly believe that whatever crisis may or may not be at hand would be solved by individual action as instructed by some vague institutions or organisations. It’s like asking people to drive slowly without introducing and enforcing speed limits, or more tangibly whatever the farce with recycling has been for the past decades. C…

I don't know where you're getting that from my comment. Personally I don't think we can meaningfully change the trajectory without a worldwide, coordinated government effort. I do think that won't happen unless people push for it, and I don't think people are going to push for it because it's going to mean higher energy prices, lifestyle changes and it's going to make it harder for economic growth, especially in developing regions.

Sure, I'll still recycle and try to not waste food and whatnot. But I know it's a drop in the bucket.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#217

Post by zosima » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 9:14 PM UTC

shdh wrote: post #215

zosima wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been tradition in Algeria to migrate to the coast during the summer-months, since forever. Other locations similarly popular is mountain regions. That's going to continue to work for many years and degrees to come, so I'm not sure if the problem really is as severe as you think.

Coastal properties in Western nations are the most expensive in general

In Algeria, there seems to be space enough by the coast.

We were talking about survival, not luxury living.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#218

Post by guerrilla » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #52

guerrilla wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously, but you missed the point. The problem is competetion by increased polarity between the haves and have-nots. The latter aren't just going to roll over and die. They're going to go to war to survive because there's nothing to lose in not doing so and everything to gain.

> The latter aren't just going to roll over and die. They're going to go to war to survive because there's nothing to lose in not doing so and everything to gain. And they'll lose. If you look at the distribution of power, it's not predicted to change all that much. The superpowers are enormously capable of maintaining their grip. The complaints of poor nations will be met with meager welfare packages and mostly tune…

I figured you would say that but your hubris is entirely unwarranted. The Taliban just handed the most powerful military on the planet their ass. They beat the USSR too. The Veitcong did it before them. Look at how badly the barefoot Houthis beat the shit out of KSA even with direct US support. Look at Russia being sent packing. Don't gamble on these things. It's foolish to expose yourself to those kinds of risks if you don't need to.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#219

Post by dirtyid » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

shdh wrote: post #212

yongjik wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But my point is that the US is hindering China's chip industry development just fine, without a single gunshot fired, and it's considered totally mundane. There are a lot of ways developed countries can nudge developing ones toward better energy efficiency. Many of them (like, say, funding solar arrays or nuclear plants) would actually benefit these countries. Some of them (say, higher customs tax for products made w…

Point taken, but I think we need more than a nudges. Sure a lot of small 1% improvements can make a change, but we don't know if the curve is linear or exponential.

tbh west does not have much carrots or sticks to nudge - not to mention they'll be nudging towards affordable PRC renewables or nuclear considering poor state of western energy infra export. Really only agent that can nudge is PRC as current dominant infra exporter who did ramped down coal plant funding on BRI which is somewhat sigificant long term. Short medium PRC still going to be building more domestic coal than rest of world combined and there isn't anyone that can pressure PRC to change her energy security considerations under current geopolitical climate. Long term global, post RU sanctions, less developing countries are going to rely on western high tech for something as critical as energy. Emphasis on high tech, like fusion or nuclear or other sufficiently advanced energy solutions developing countries can't hope to replicate or substitute if ever sanctioned/denied. I predict relatively accessible low tech energy generation like fossil fuels and renewables like wind/solar/hydro is going to remain mainstay of energy mix because we are entering world where global south are less likely to depend on west for critical infra. Which is to say they'll be burning a lot more coal for base load power.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#220

Post by mcdonje » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 9:29 PM UTC

gottorf wrote: post #173

mcdonje wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>all of human development has been about spending more energy per capita at less cost What? No. That makes no sense. Human development includes a lot of things that have nothing to do with that ridiculous and narrow definition. >Those who take climate change seriously should have gone all in on nuclear, but somehow there was enough of an overlap between that group and anti-nuclear activists that it never happened. Th…

> Human development includes a lot of things that have nothing to do with that ridiculous and narrow definition. What other concept so concisely captures the difference between how our primitive ape ancestors lived, to how cavemen lived, to how the ancient cultures lived, to how we live now? Or how countries at different stages of development now are to each other? The Human Development Index correlates highly with p…

You framed a correlation like a requirement. Human development involves a lot of things, many of which don't have a strong causal relationship with energy usage.

That chart has major outliers on the top right. Most countries toward the top are clustered close to the left. Yes, the top left is rounded off and everyone at the top uses more resources than everyone at the bottom, but the outliers are enough to skew an average and make the effect appear larger than it is.

My reading is that several energy intensive countries can significantly reduce their energy expenditure while maintaining a high level of human development.