This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years • Hacker News Board

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#181

Post by myshpa » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:31 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177

myshpa wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/fossil-fuels-global-energy... Fossil Fuels Made Up 82% of Global Energy Consumption in 2022: New Data Data published Monday shows that fossil fuels made up 82% of global energy consumption in 2022, another indication that the global transition away from planet-warming sources is moving far too slowly as rich nations continue burning oil, gas, and coal at an unsustainable pace. “Despi…

2/3rds of that fossil fuels becomes wasted heat. We only need to replace the third that actually performs useful functions. Even if the plants were cost competitive, which they are not, the existing ones are only built to last 30-50 years which means they'll age out and be replaced by renewables on that timescale at the very worst.

That doesn't consider different energy use cases, existing infrastructure, and increasing global energy demands, which could require more than simply replacing the 'useful' energy currently obtained from fossil fuels.

Electricity generation (coal) ... 33-40% efficiency

Electricity generation (nat. gas) ... 50-60%

Heating (nat. gas.) ... upto 97%

Transportation ... 20-30%

Industrial ... cement for example at about 50%

What am I missing? Got any links or references for "we only need to replace the third"?

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#182

Post by gottorf » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:31 PM UTC

Earw0rm wrote: post #171

gottorf wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The same additional amount in the hands of the top 80% or so of Western hands would be frittered away to no noticeable benefit - we could get by with a lot less. We could, but getting by with less out of choice is much better than getting by with less out of deprivation (like you said, "if you don't have enough, more is very, very much better"). And if your solution involves a large group of people depriving themse…

By definition, if you have enough, it's not deprivation. And, at an individual level, deprivation isn't really something you can do to yourself (barring extreme circumstances, eating disorders, religious asceticism and suchlike). This does get more complicated when it's a societal level choice. You might feel subjectively energy-deprived at a very different point to me. At the same time though, a well-designed low-en…

> At the same time though, a well-designed low-energy regime isn't perceived by its citizens as despotic. There's very little call (nowadays) to smash Houston-style freeways through Europe's semi-pedestrianised neighbourhoods.

Despotic it may not be, yet people vote with their feet. Way more Europeans leave their delightfully walkable cities to make a living in Houston than the other way around[0]. 650k Germans, 180k French, and 90k Dutch lived in the US in 2017, compared to 140k, 50k, and 30k Americans living in the respective countries.

And despite the ugliness of Houston's monstrous freeways, it at least grows and takes newcomers: Metro Houston nearly doubled (grew 70%) from 2000 to 2020, compared to (the metros of) Berlin only 5%, Paris 13%, and Amsterdam 14%.

Broadly, I see current European policy as a defensive posture, one looking to maintain things as they are in all aspects: climate, population, wealth. There doesn't appear to be the same appetite for change and growth. It's as though they've decided that the way things are now is the best it'll ever be, and anything more advanced (that is, requiring more energy expended per capita) is somehow immoral. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it.

[0]: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/interactives/global-migra...; obviously, I don't mean literally Houston itself.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#183

Post by Gud » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:33 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #175

shdh wrote: post #145

Deceleration isn't really an option. Many developing nations are going to continue to have increasing energy needs. To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. The only real solution is to make energy ubiquitous and plentiful. Governments should be investing 100's billions of dollars into…

> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped…

No. The _ruling elites_ of the western world conquered much of the world over the last 1000 years, including their (current) European subjects.

I refuse to be guilted into thinking I’m somehow a bad man because what someone ultra privileged did, just because of my relative proximity.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#184

Post by steve_adams_86 » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:36 PM UTC

sublinear wrote: post #112

Ugh this sensationalized trash reduces the trust of the public in the science. The reality of weather should not be reduced down to politics, yet here we are. Living in idiocracy. We're in a strong el nino at the moment and it's not even the worst one in the last 50 years.

Even if 2023 was a cooler year, globally, I would still be seriously concerned about the decades-long trend of significant warming. The emphasis put on the warming this year is completely rational.

Imagine if our global surface temperature average continues to steadily increase, say over 50 years, and we continue to see dramatic spikes in temperature like we're seeing now? Not only will habitats and the life within them be decimated, but humans will be included. In my small city, the 2021 heatwave in Western Canada killed over 600 people more than a heatwave typically would. That's staggering, and we're just getting started.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#185

Post by gottorf » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:42 PM UTC

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #132

gottorf wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Abundant and reliable energy sources will let us deal with the higher variance; notably, deaths related to climate have decreased to one-third over the fifty years from 1970 to 2019[0], even as the human population more than doubled. That isn't one-third the rate, it's one-third in absolute number. [0]: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10989

Even a perfect engine is not 100% efficient, if we don’t find a way to expel more energy or reduce the energy we use, we will only create more heat and will need even more energy to deal with it. It is also the case that a large part of the world is simply not built to withstand such temperatures, and using more energy to accommodate that means putting more heat into the atmosphere.

> we will only create more heat and will need even more energy to deal with it

Yes, that's a thermodynamic certainty. But the moment Homo sapiens left the year-round pleasant high plains of East Africa, we were going to need energy; you can't blame the caveman for lighting a stick on fire to keep himself warm.

> a large part of the world is simply not built to withstand such temperatures

People live in some truly inhospitable places, some cold, some hot, and have done so since before modern conveniences. Unless the plan is to make sure everyone in the world lives in places where you naturally don't need (or want) heat or air conditioning, the extra heat in the atmosphere is the price we must pay.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#186

Post by ZeroGravitas » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:44 PM UTC

myshpa wrote: post #181

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2/3rds of that fossil fuels becomes wasted heat. We only need to replace the third that actually performs useful functions. Even if the plants were cost competitive, which they are not, the existing ones are only built to last 30-50 years which means they'll age out and be replaced by renewables on that timescale at the very worst.

That doesn't consider different energy use cases, existing infrastructure, and increasing global energy demands, which could require more than simply replacing the 'useful' energy currently obtained from fossil fuels. Electricity generation (coal) ... 33-40% efficiency Electricity generation (nat. gas) ... 50-60% Heating (nat. gas.) ... upto 97% Transportation ... 20-30% Industrial ... cement for example at about 50%…

This works through examples with numbers:

https://ourworldindata.org/energy-substitution-method

Also note that heat pump based heating can be 5x as efficient as nat gas heating. Which means using gas to generate electricity to run heat pumps is an improvement.

edit to add: also note that the oldest, dirtiest and least efficient plants will get shut first, having an outsized impact.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#187

Post by shdh » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:47 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #175

shdh wrote: post #145

Deceleration isn't really an option. Many developing nations are going to continue to have increasing energy needs. To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. The only real solution is to make energy ubiquitous and plentiful. Governments should be investing 100's billions of dollars into…

> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped…

> but we draw a line at trying to avert a global climate disaster?

USA isn't going to invade countries to hinder their development. Neither is China. Energy needs continue to increase.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#188

Post by shdh » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:49 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #175

shdh wrote: post #145

Deceleration isn't really an option. Many developing nations are going to continue to have increasing energy needs. To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. The only real solution is to make energy ubiquitous and plentiful. Governments should be investing 100's billions of dollars into…

> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped…

> existential threat against the human civilization

That threat will always be there, just need to have awareness of it.

Hopefully its linear a linear curve we're on and not exponential. [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#189

Post by valval » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:51 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #175

shdh wrote: post #145

Deceleration isn't really an option. Many developing nations are going to continue to have increasing energy needs. To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. The only real solution is to make energy ubiquitous and plentiful. Governments should be investing 100's billions of dollars into…

> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped…

How many wrongs do you think will make a right? Shouldn't we strive for a solution that uplifts everyone rather than limiting the aspirations of those who were historically exploited?

It's not about denying climate change or the necessity to act, but it's about finding a path forward that respects the rights of all nations to develop. This entails working towards sustainable, clean energy solutions and aiding developing nations in transitioning to such technologies, rather than simply demanding they cut their emissions. Let's strive for an equitable transition to sustainability rather than rehashing past wrongs as justifications for present impositions.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#190

Post by shdh » Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 7:52 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #170

shdh wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wind, solar, and geo haven't really made up a significant enough portion of overall energy generation. Also they don't seem to be scaling up quickly enough. We're still seeing many coal plants operating and new ones coming online in the West.

> IEA figures shows that it expects global electricity generation to rise by 2,493TWh between 2022 and 2025. > The IEA expects the growth in renewable generation to cover the vast majority of this total, growing by 2,450TWh. This is equivalent to 98% of the overall increase in global demand.

Share some figures that are per dollar. Fusion has the potential to beat all of that.