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This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

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171–180 of 266 posts

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#171
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that high-energy regimes can crowd out low-energy designs that actually produce better outcomes in terms of well-being. As with food calories: either for an individual or a population group, if you don't have enough, more is very, very much better. This is not the same as more being always better. Sometimes the same or less in a smarter implementation produces better outcomes, and sometimes it takes a…

> The same additional amount in the hands of the top 80% or so of Western hands would be frittered away to no noticeable benefit - we could get by with a lot less. We could, but getting by with less out of choice is much better than getting by with less out of deprivation (like you said, "if you don't have enough, more is very, very much better"). And if your solution involves a large group of people depriving themse…

By definition, if you have enough, it's not deprivation. And, at an individual level, deprivation isn't really something you can do to yourself (barring extreme circumstances, eating disorders, religious asceticism and suchlike).

This does get more complicated when it's a societal level choice. You might feel subjectively energy-deprived at a very different point to me. At the same time though, a well-designed low-energy regime isn't perceived by its citizens as despotic. There's very little call (nowadays) to smash Houston-style freeways through Europe's semi-pedestrianised neighbourhoods. Curiously, this was not the case in lower-information times, but the intersection of high bandwidth/discoverability and walkability is a much bigger topic.

Now I'm old enough to remember Eastern Bloc totalitarianism, and I find the current Gen Z fashion/fetish of all things DDR/Soviet vaguely tragic, but the outcome of the path we're on right now is at least equivalent to tyranny, at least for the three billion or so people at the pointy end of it all.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#172
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of those folks in the developing world are going to die from the new heat normal, and no one is going to do anything about it. Tragic to be sure. > To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. Without a hint of sarcasm or snark, life isn’t fair. We’re on a trajectory of progress (ener…

Yeah, that's without question. Overall energy needs will still continue to increase during that time, global population growth will almost certainly continue as well.

Right, you're spot on. We're lucky in that fertility is plummeting across the world [1], which means the population peak won't be too high [2], but we're still going to have to provide for all the people who are going to exist over the course of the next century.

The world is rapidly aging [3]; we should build renewables while we still have a young, productive worker cohort [4]. How are people who are going to want or need to migrate, to survive carbon emissions catching up with us, going to? No idea.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rates/

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time

[3] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-...

[4] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/electricity-generatio...

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#173
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's baffling is making energy more expensive and less reliable when all of human development has been about spending more energy per capita at less cost. Those who take climate change seriously should have gone all in on nuclear, but somehow there was enough of an overlap between that group and anti-nuclear activists that it never happened. That's what's truly baffling. More and cheaper energy is quite literally t…

>all of human development has been about spending more energy per capita at less cost What? No. That makes no sense. Human development includes a lot of things that have nothing to do with that ridiculous and narrow definition. >Those who take climate change seriously should have gone all in on nuclear, but somehow there was enough of an overlap between that group and anti-nuclear activists that it never happened. Th…

> Human development includes a lot of things that have nothing to do with that ridiculous and narrow definition.

What other concept so concisely captures the difference between how our primitive ape ancestors lived, to how cavemen lived, to how the ancient cultures lived, to how we live now? Or how countries at different stages of development now are to each other?

The Human Development Index correlates highly with per capita energy expenditure[0]. It's basically a necessary but not sufficient component of human development; otherwise you'd see countries in the lower-right quadrant of that chart. I find it surprising that you have such a strong reaction to this.

> Follow the money

Of course, Big Oil lobbied for their interests. I'm sure solar executives spend money on lobbying, too. Doesn't mean that the public, especially the interested and motivated public ("those who take climate change seriously"), should have been duped by it.

No one is absolving Big Oil for their part in swaying public opinion, but the public should also grow a backbone.

> What about [...]

They're all good ideas. My point is that good ideas don't happen in a vacuum. Everything carries with it an opportunity cost. "Increasing renewable energy options" isn't something that happens as a result of someone waving a wand; it's accomplished using limited time and resources that could be used elsewhere. So when you implement those ideas by taking away from fossil fuels, you had better make sure that the tradeoff is worth it.

> What about increasing city density and improving subways and trains?

On this point especially, I'm all for reforming zoning so that cities can become more dense. This would alleviate so many problems in America's highly desirable cities that are laughably sparse compared to other world cities (but of course, the precious "neighborhood character"...).

And sure, let's improve transit systems. But how? Take a look at the MTA's budget[1]: only a quarter is paid for by fares, meaning that people who don't use the subway already pay for three-quarters of the MTA. Even pre-pandemic, fares were a little over a third[2]. And this is in the area with the highest transit usage percentage by far out of anywhere in the country; the one place where they should be able to make it work!

So it appears that there is already a high degree of subsidization of subways and trains. Given how rapidly the ridership experience is deteriorating in almost all American transit systems, it seems irresponsible to put even more tax dollars in that direction, without first addressing the issues that make people not want to ride them very much.

[0]: https://visualizingenergy.org/does-more-energy-use-increase-...

[1]: http://web.mta.info/budgetdashboard/Budget_Transparencyd.htm...

[2]: https://new.mta.info/sites/default/files/2019-03/MTA-2019-Ad...

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#174
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wind, solar, and geo haven't really made up a significant enough portion of overall energy generation. Also they don't seem to be scaling up quickly enough. We're still seeing many coal plants operating and new ones coming online in the West.

> IEA figures shows that it expects global electricity generation to rise by 2,493TWh between 2022 and 2025. > The IEA expects the growth in renewable generation to cover the vast majority of this total, growing by 2,450TWh. This is equivalent to 98% of the overall increase in global demand.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/fossil-fuels-global-energy...

Fossil Fuels Made Up 82% of Global Energy Consumption in 2022: New Data

Data published Monday shows that fossil fuels made up 82% of global energy consumption in 2022, another indication that the global transition away from planet-warming sources is moving far too slowly as rich nations continue burning oil, gas, and coal at an unsustainable pace.

“Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again," said Davenport. "We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement."

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#175
post #145

Deceleration isn't really an option. Many developing nations are going to continue to have increasing energy needs. To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request. The only real solution is to make energy ubiquitous and plentiful. Governments should be investing 100's billions of dollars into…

> To ask these countries to reduce their energy requirements is to ask their citizens to live a lower standard of life. Hypocritical of those in the West to make that request.

That's a weird take. The West has colonized the rest of the world, enslaved people, exported cheap product to decimate local industry (sometimes at gunpoint), extracted resources (frequently with indigenous people working like slaves), propped up dictators, you name it ...

(I'm not particularly trying to blame the nebulous "West," as many other countries would have done the same if they had the chance. See what Japan did during WW2.)

... but we draw a line at trying to avert a global climate disaster?

Just this year, America was busy making sure China doesn't get the chips they want, by pressuring its own allies into not making more deals with China. And these things are considered completely normal and part of "business as usual" as long as they support the continued hegemony of America.

But talk about fending off the existential threat against the human civilization, and people are like "Oh no! Won't anybody think about those poor Indians who need their gas-powered cars!!"

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think protecting the climate will destroy the economy and personal freedom, you’re mistaken. The biggest threat to a thriving world economy with high degrees of personal freedom is climate change.

> The biggest threat to a thriving world economy with high degrees of personal freedom I would suggest it is lack of low-cost, easily-accessible energy. Energy has been the driving force behind virtually every technological and economic advance in the past century.

Solar PV became the "cheapest source of energy in history" levels 3 years ago in places with low cost of capital, prices have continued to fall and are forecast to keep dropping as we get more experience.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricit...

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#177
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IEA figures shows that it expects global electricity generation to rise by 2,493TWh between 2022 and 2025. > The IEA expects the growth in renewable generation to cover the vast majority of this total, growing by 2,450TWh. This is equivalent to 98% of the overall increase in global demand.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/fossil-fuels-global-energy... Fossil Fuels Made Up 82% of Global Energy Consumption in 2022: New Data Data published Monday shows that fossil fuels made up 82% of global energy consumption in 2022, another indication that the global transition away from planet-warming sources is moving far too slowly as rich nations continue burning oil, gas, and coal at an unsustainable pace. “Despi…

2/3rds of that fossil fuels becomes wasted heat. We only need to replace the third that actually performs useful functions.

Even if the plants were cost competitive, which they are not, the existing ones are only built to last 30-50 years which means they'll age out and be replaced by renewables on that timescale at the very worst.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#178
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that's without question. Overall energy needs will still continue to increase during that time, global population growth will almost certainly continue as well.

Right, you're spot on. We're lucky in that fertility is plummeting across the world [1], which means the population peak won't be too high [2], but we're still going to have to provide for all the people who are going to exist over the course of the next century. The world is rapidly aging [3]; we should build renewables while we still have a young, productive worker cohort [4]. How are people who are going to want o…

Interesting. I thought "plummeting" deserved correction, but it's me who was wrong: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-births-b...

It has risen and fallen in the past, but nonetheless it's quite a decline at the moment.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#179

Cool, well, we just have to wait for enough people on the planet to believe in the problem and then we'll get right on it.

The popular consensus seems to be that global warming is happening. I doubt the few hold outs are actually what is holding back action, as opposed to some powerful and rich organizations getting very rich off it, and a lack of general will to make drastic changes.

Okay well until people start losing elections because they aren't doing enough for the environment I don't think we can expect much to change. People are a lot more worried about their day to day problems for the time being.

Powerful interests working to push back public opinion and paying politicians is an obstacle too though, for sure.

Re: This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in 120k years

#180
post #150

Cool, well, we just have to wait for enough people on the planet to believe in the problem and then we'll get right on it.

Strawmen notwithstanding, the main controversy today is about governments as well as non-elected organizations (like the WEF) calling for increased central control over ordinary citizens and adopting tyrannical measures to reduce the standard of living and increase the cost of energy, food, travel and so on, using "climate crisis" as a vague excuse to invoke some sense of urgency in the hopes that people are stupid e…

I'll just say that I agree that most people are not ready/willing to pay the price of real climate action in dollars today. We'll probably just have to pay down the line. I guess we'll see how bad it gets.
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