Live data from Hacker News

Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

science.org

51–60 of 501 posts

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#51

So what kinds of cool stuff could be built with a room temperature superconductor? Better levitating trains?

Nuclear fusion much easier, quantum computing, lossless electricity transmission, insane batteries. Dirt cheap MRIs, Basically welcome to the Jetsons. Much easier to mitigate climate change to the point where we can just deal with it.

This would only solve one of the more minor problems with fusion. And what would it do for batteries?

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#52

While we’re waiting for experimenters to reproduce this, it’s worth comparing this amazing announcement to the Cold Fusion affair of 1989[1] It’s notable that the first publications about attempts to reproduce the Cold Fusion experiment all reported positive results. It’s probably because experimenters who got negative results decided they might have done something wrong so they kept trying, and delayed, and they did…

Why did those early experimenters report positive reports? Did they inadvertently do something wrong themselves that looked like cold fusion?

Small effect sizes make it easy to confuse noise for positive results. Throw into it the very strong desire to see the thing work, and, well, even the best of us are only human.

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#53

This is an extremely useful summarization of the original paper. > The authors believe that the modified/strained structure of their material creates a large number of “quantum wells” between particular lead atoms and the adjacent oxygens of the phosphate groups bound to them, in effect making a two-dimensional “electron gas”. They propose that electron tunneling between these quantum wells, which are between 3.7 and…

Totally agree. This is science at it's best, with maximum skepticism (and a dash of hope), in front of our eyes!

Even better, it's a HUGE claim that is going to show how epistemology in science works (reproduction!!)

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#54

This is an extremely useful summarization of the original paper. > The authors believe that the modified/strained structure of their material creates a large number of “quantum wells” between particular lead atoms and the adjacent oxygens of the phosphate groups bound to them, in effect making a two-dimensional “electron gas”. They propose that electron tunneling between these quantum wells, which are between 3.7 and…

I don't think the actual proposed superconductivity mechanism is the relevant part of this paper. It is much easier to prove that this is superconducting than to prove why. And in a sense it is a bit less relevant. Although developing a working theory for room temperature is also probably worth a Nobel prize, so I am willing to bet some theorists are also running to their blackboards as we speak.

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#56

While we’re waiting for experimenters to reproduce this, it’s worth comparing this amazing announcement to the Cold Fusion affair of 1989[1] It’s notable that the first publications about attempts to reproduce the Cold Fusion experiment all reported positive results. It’s probably because experimenters who got negative results decided they might have done something wrong so they kept trying, and delayed, and they did…

Why did those early experimenters report positive reports? Did they inadvertently do something wrong themselves that looked like cold fusion?

> Did they inadvertently do something wrong themselves that looked like cold fusion?

Yes, probably

This blog talks about some of the many pitfalls that could mislead researchers: https://coldfusionblog.net/2019/03/13/the-case-against-cold-...

Some of the errors are very subtle. It’s not surprising that mistakes were made

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#57

While we’re waiting for experimenters to reproduce this, it’s worth comparing this amazing announcement to the Cold Fusion affair of 1989[1] It’s notable that the first publications about attempts to reproduce the Cold Fusion experiment all reported positive results. It’s probably because experimenters who got negative results decided they might have done something wrong so they kept trying, and delayed, and they did…

I remember being interested enough to suspend disbelief for a little while with rossi's e-cat:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer

nothing happened, of course, but the idea of an elegant energy source was so seductive.

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#58

This is an extremely useful summarization of the original paper. > The authors believe that the modified/strained structure of their material creates a large number of “quantum wells” between particular lead atoms and the adjacent oxygens of the phosphate groups bound to them, in effect making a two-dimensional “electron gas”. They propose that electron tunneling between these quantum wells, which are between 3.7 and…

> They propose that electron tunneling between these quantum wells, which are between 3.7 and 6.5 Ångstroms apart, is the superconducting mechanism.

That is a very strange explanation. As someone who has done a decent amount of solid-state physics work, I would expect the explanation to involve a mechanism for pairing of electrons. Mere tunneling between quantum wells has been a staple since the "metamaterials" of the 80s and 90s.

That said, the measured curves do not lie, and I haven't kept up with the field. So I'm all ears (and very much hoping the superconducting revolution is upon us!)

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#59
post #15

What do the "super forecasters" have to say about this? Was this predicted on prediction markets? Was the assumption of this tech existing already factored into prediction models?

Prediction markets say this will probably not replicate (and imo even overestimate the probability of replication)

Re: Superconductor news: What’s claimed, and how strong the evidence seems to be

#60

> (as well as an obvious instant Nobel prize). South Korea has been waiting for a (real, STEM) Nobel prize for decades. These guys will be worshipped as gods if they deliver

I'd bet the country would be transformed by this. SK universities (SNU, KAIST) would rocket in reputation for solid state physics research. Massive money inflows to the country from production of the material. Deep down I think most of us realize that this will probably turn out to be nothing.

It’s nothing unless it turns out to be something.

I’ll draw an analogy to the LLMs and diffusion models that have lately rocked the computer world. These things are straight up science fiction. I would have said computers would have never been capable of art and poetry. It was all fantasy until it was suddenly reality.

We’ll probably know if this can be replicated relatively soon. And if it can it will kick off a whole new branch of materials science and begin a multi-year race to commercialization.

We are facing gigantic challenges in energy and climate. We need the win, so my fingers are crossed.

Post reply on HN