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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

291–300 of 324 posts

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#291
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Never convinced that models are a good basis for this kind of debate. It just presents a world in which we don't have agency over the climate.

We collectively do, we individually hardly.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article says the collapse would cause an ice age in Northern Europe. Would that "cure" global warming?

I can't find any reference to ice age in the article, nor to consequences for Europe, where did I missed them?

I've read several articles on this today. It must have been another one.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article says the collapse would cause an ice age in Northern Europe. Would that "cure" global warming?

No. Global warming is the effect of decreased solar radiation (as compared to how much solar energy is absorbed), thus more energy added to the Earth. A new ice age in Norther Europe might slightly increase that area's albido, which would increase solar radiation and in theory mitigate global warming. But truth is, the effect of that change in albido will be very small compared to the effect of the atmospheric CO2 (w…

You would think that adding that much ice in the atmosphere would cool it down a little, like putting an ice cube in a glass of water.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the West Coast of North America is has milder winters than the East Coast, which has milder winters than the center. Shouldn't we expect London to end up with a similar climate as somewhere on the West Coast of Canada at the same latitude?

> Shouldn't we expect ... similar climate as ... West Coast of Canada at same latitude The Pacific ocean has a similar current to the Gulf stream (AMOC) called the Kuroshio current. If the Gulf stream stops, you should expect the climate in London to be worse than the climate in the center of northern Canada.

> the Kuroshio current

Everything I've read about the Kuroshio current only talks about its effect on Japan. Does it carry all the way to the North American west coast? Looking at this map[0], you can clearly see the effect of the AMOC on how warm the waters north of Europe are compared to similar latitudes elsewhere, but there doesn't seem to be the same relationship between the waters east of the West Coast vs. west of Japan. If anything, the Californian/Oregonian shores appear cooler than the same latitudes in Japan.

[0]: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#295
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's saying to pour yourself a stiff drink ;-)

I wasn't so sure, there's 3 comments mentioning it and 2 mis-capitalize it in a context where it could be a proper noun...but I'm leaning you're correct

sigspec was one of the first responses and left the single word as a joke. As in have a stiff drink, because you're fucked. Because my answer was that the OP was probably performing an optimal strategy given their constraints. Sure, they could do better by becoming a climate researcher, but that's not really a reasonable ask.

Side note: I often say that you know when the physics undergrads start quantum mechanics because they all become alcoholics. The joke here (which has a lot of truth to it btw) is that your intuitive framework breaks down and stops helping you, so you suck it up, drink, and just trust the math. Truthfully, for any study, once you hit a sufficient level, this kinda ends up being true. You get introduced to concepts at a simple and abstracted level, which seems sufficient for modeling the world (often this is what you learn in undergrad domains, not just physics). But once you get to enough expertise you find that what seemed simple before simply gets dominated by the nuances and complexities of the system. Truth is that if anyone is trying to convince you that something is simple (especially yourself), then they are trying to deceive you -- intentionally or unintentionally (often fooled themselves). There's a reason you'll find huge books on how to pick the best screw, o-ring, or whatever seemingly simple thing.

I guess it wouldn't be a clique if it wasn't well known but people fail to internalize it: The devil is in the details.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man... this is the most fatalist comment I've read in a while but I suspect your prescription to the problem is the correct one.

I'm sorry I don't have anything better on this. There is this fantastic interview of Ray Anderson, the late CEO of 'Interface' (modular carpets) where he describes vividly the kind of damage that industry is wreaking on the planet and what they are trying to do about it and it's depressing that for all that power and insight he managed to do preciously little: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzOwP0phUis At that level…

Which the irony here is that I think a lot of the rough ride is due to people caring too much. Most of the fighting is due to non-experts having high confidence in their understanding of the highly complex phenomena fighting with similar people with just different misunderstandings. This fighting just adds additional noise to the system and results in it being even more difficult to formulate effective solutions.

It's kinda an odd characteristic that passion for a subject doesn't strongly correlate with the desire to become more knowledgeable in that subject. It's definitely there for all those that do become experts, but there's a large number of experts with high passion too. I suspect that it is partially due to our desire of wanting to know everything and believing that lack of knowledge is a blemish. To me this feels odd, it is like being upset you bought a puzzle that wasn't already assembled, a videogame that wasn't already beaten, or a book that wasn't already read.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry I don't have anything better on this. There is this fantastic interview of Ray Anderson, the late CEO of 'Interface' (modular carpets) where he describes vividly the kind of damage that industry is wreaking on the planet and what they are trying to do about it and it's depressing that for all that power and insight he managed to do preciously little: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzOwP0phUis At that level…

Which the irony here is that I think a lot of the rough ride is due to people caring too much. Most of the fighting is due to non-experts having high confidence in their understanding of the highly complex phenomena fighting with similar people with just different misunderstandings. This fighting just adds additional noise to the system and results in it being even more difficult to formulate effective solutions. It'…

One of my kids observed that knowing all the stuff he learns in school doesn't seem to make him any happier, but does wonders for seeing how fucked up everything is. It would be nice if I found a way to show him that knowing lots of stuff can help in positive ways as well but for now he has me cornered.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing…

As always I disagree... This is the attitude that "people in charge will do something for you, and if they don't I guess we'll cope" that is undemocratic and breeds passivity. if you are concerned about something it does not mean you must be non stop stressed or forever abandon your life for single cause. You can be concerned and act in constructive ways (lead by example, talk about it, raise the issue, vote, etc), m…

They're not really suggesting a defeatist attitude so much as encouraging you to allocate your resources. You only have so much time, energy, and knowledge. To be blunt, if you're passionate about something then you need to invest the time to become knowledgeable in it.

If these two variables are not aligned then you're actively adding noise to the system and I'd argue that you are making the system less democratic. The world is fucking complex and the devil is always in the details. You may notice that the loudest voices are not the most knowledgeable voices. They will never seek details unless it is to critique their opponents and go no further. The loudest voices are not those seeking truth, they are seeking competition. Seeking truth is a cooperative game, where the main goals are aligned and there is no singular winner. It is positive sum. But the loudest voices are playing games to win, often creating competition where there may not have been before. Usually they claim a game is zero sum, when often it is not.

The point of democracy is to distribute power, and not necessarily uniformly. Our modern industrial and economic worlds runs on specialization. At the very core. This is because these processes are so complex that no individual can obtain mastery over even a significant part of the system. There are no physicists who are experts in all of physics, no chemists who have mastered both organic and physical, no climate scientists who understand all of climate, no engineers who master electrical, mechanical, aero, and civil, there are no master full stack engineers. Do you really think political affairs are any different?

For some reason we pretend we can be experts in even larger domains where experts struggle to obtain expertise in a narrow niche. If systems are chaotic, where small differences are critical, then overconfidence has disastrous consequences.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on my initial reading so far this seems like the best take. However, I’ll offer an alternative perspective. This paper identifies that IPCC does not expect a collapse in the 21st-century. That alone should be our largest biasing factor when we’re asking - from a time horizon perspective - what should we be doing? So then, why now? I think it’s compelling that they identified two preconditions for a collapse the…

As a former military officer, does it concern you at all that in this case if the time comes that we must mobilize, like yesterday , instead of issuing orders and having them followed, we may have a 4 to 12 year lag as the orders filter through our "democracy", which is composed largely of a bunch of children arguing over their respective fantasy land realities (as illustrated among our best and brightest here every…

At least in the US the military works at the speed of congressional appropriations.

If Congress and the President agree to what you consider a “4-6 year lag” in whatever response we take then, the best Service and COCOM chiefs can do is give advice and then execute orders.

Call and vote for your congressperson if you want lasting change in the use of the DoD.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which the irony here is that I think a lot of the rough ride is due to people caring too much. Most of the fighting is due to non-experts having high confidence in their understanding of the highly complex phenomena fighting with similar people with just different misunderstandings. This fighting just adds additional noise to the system and results in it being even more difficult to formulate effective solutions. It'…

One of my kids observed that knowing all the stuff he learns in school doesn't seem to make him any happier, but does wonders for seeing how fucked up everything is. It would be nice if I found a way to show him that knowing lots of stuff can help in positive ways as well but for now he has me cornered.

Sounds like a smart kid. I'm not sure if the world is fucked up or we just are misinterpreting it. If I can sympathize with fucked up characters in books and movies, maybe it just means I don't know enough about those people/things that I consider evil or fucked up. There's a lot of variables at play, many hidden, creating a fundamentally stochastic reality. A friend told me a saying once, and I don't think he realized how much it would impact my life.

> The harder I work, the luckier I get.

I definitely went through an existential crisis where I found that the world was dominated by noise (with complexity being just one form). But what I found meaningful from this simple saying is that if life is composed of stochastic events, I better be ready to seize upon the opportunities when and if they emerge.

Plus, I've always enjoyed learning. Not for power or any actual gain. But the same way one finds enjoyment in solving a puzzle or playing any game. Isn't that enough? I just see that the noise and complexity I can see just indicates what level of the game I'm on. Games wouldn't be fun if they didn't get more challenging as you progressed :)

I don't know if this helps. Maybe this is that random event to seize upon or maybe it is just more noise. But that's the world I guess, and there's a certain beauty to that.

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