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Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

paulgraham.com

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Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#71

0. free internet - as in beer and as in liberty 1. a new search engine http://duckduckgo.com/ 2. replace email - with a todo list? - as I look at that old Palm IIIxe sitting in the cradle on my desk, my mind swims in the ideas of all the databases on all of the devices everywhere all being in sync 3. replace universities - yup, and recreate the free university of olde 4. internet drama - indie drama titles (movies/sh…

DDG isn't the answer - not yet, anyway

I find that ~50% of my results I re-attempt with a !g, !w or !wo before it

I know the guy behind the site reads threads here, so i'd ask him to check his logs for the number of instances a user has re-run a search query but with Google or Bing and then work out why his results for those queries are not working.

I think the 'new google' will be built around a PageRank that takes into account online social networks rather than links

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#72
As an amateur historian, I found the Colombus bit a bit interesting, and probably more on-point than Graham might have even known. Columbus, his backers, and his detractors all accepted that the world was round. What they disagreed about was how big it was, and how far it would be to Asia by sailing West. Everybody, pretty much, by that point knew that the world was literally round (and flat only in stories). This was especially true in monastic and church circles which had known this for longer.

In other words they all agreed it was a great idea and an ambitious project that might succeed. They disagreed about what it would take to get there, and whether there might be obstacles in the way.

Seems like a very fitting metaphor for an ambitious startup.

Edit: For sources, you can start with "Heaven and Earth in the Middle Ages: The Physical World Before Columbus" by Rudolf Simek, which is a book uncommon in its level of insight. His description of Marco Polo's purported encounter with a unicorn had me laughing in both humor and amazement.

Simek's basic thesis was that Columbus's expedition was important historically because it blew away an important piece of medieval ethnographic thought--- once it became clear that the areas he had reached were not India, but were inhabited anyway, it doomed the Augustinian argument against the existence of inhabited continents beyond Africa, Asia, and Europe. This then paved the way for questioning the religious and classical basis for some aspects of the physical world, and lead in many ways to the Renaissance (though I think the failure of the Crusades and the translation of Arabic writings into Latin had a strong hand there too). The importance of Columbus's voyage about changing the way we think about our place on the world was still important. Another good point about ambitious startups?

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#73
The example of email as an "irresistible force vs an immovable object" really resonates with me. There are many things in that class:

- The way we communicate (pg gave a good example of this one)

- The way we write software (text files? really?)

- The Operating Systems we use (All the major design decisions were made in the 80's.)

- Computer input systems (are keyboards really a global maxima for efficient control?)

Eventually, these will definitely be replaced. Why not make "eventually" now? We won't be running Windows or Linux in 2050. Why not be the person who invents what we ARE using?

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#74
I think all of those things are being worked on right now. Khan Academy and co on replacing universities. The whole 'quantified self' set of gadgets, like the basis band, the zeo sleep tracker, the withing's scale, etc. DuckDuckGo for a search engine startup, etc.

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#75
post #22

"GMail is slow because Google can't afford to spend a lot on it. But people will pay for this. I'd have no problem paying $50 a month." Ok. Number of Paul Grahams in the world times $600/year = ? Most people on the web are ridiculously stingy. "I would pay for this" is a terrible way to think for an entrepreneur. Believing that what we think represents the masses is a rookie mistake.

Most households have no problem paying $50/month for a service that their whole family uses frequently: cable TV. So here is my idea: make and sell this great email-like/todo-list/file-sharing/whatever service that an entire household can use, and charge $50/month.

That's only $10/month/user for a family of five. Come up with reasonable limits to ensure enough revenue (eg. max 10 users per plan).

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#76
Man finds a black kind of rock that burns; discovers that you can get a lot of this rock if you dig deeper, but deep mines have water. In order to successfully mine this rock, man devises a steam powered engine (neatly enough powered by this same rock) to pump out the water. No, not the steam engines you're familiar with. This is the Newcomen Steam Engine: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomen_engine

The Newcomen Engine has a fatal flaw: it cools the steam for the return stroke, losing energy to the latent heat of evaporation each time. James Watt discovers the latent heat of evaporation, and realizes that separating the condenser from the piston would improve efficiency. So let's go build some railroads, right? Not so fast. It would still be another 30 years (100 years from the invention of the Newcomen Engine) before railroads and ferry boats would be regularly powered by reciprocating steam engines.

What's the moral? For 100 years, vast leaps in technology came one after the other. In the process, the Laws of Thermodynamics were discovered and described. Many learned men stood around patting each other on the back at how successful, how inventive they were...at digging a black rock called "coal" from the ground.

But most people don't dig rock from the ground. Most people do travel from point A to point B on a fairly regular basis. The world changed when 100 years of technology left the mine shaft and the factory, and got people where they were going just a bit faster.

I'm convinced that computers are still at the Newcomen/Watt transition. We have a ways to go before the world truly changes.

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#77

0. free internet - as in beer and as in liberty 1. a new search engine http://duckduckgo.com/ 2. replace email - with a todo list? - as I look at that old Palm IIIxe sitting in the cradle on my desk, my mind swims in the ideas of all the databases on all of the devices everywhere all being in sync 3. replace universities - yup, and recreate the free university of olde 4. internet drama - indie drama titles (movies/sh…

A sidenote, but it's interesting that your comment drifts into the 'fallacy of the now' which is the antithesis of the essay.

You posit Raspberry Pi (flippantly or not is not clear) as the 'next Steve Jobs' response... I love what Upton's trying to achieve, Braben is a hero of mine and I cut my chops on the BBC Micro in the early 80s, but it still stands that this is just the latest in a long line of interesting forays into the minicomputing sphere.

Jobs' post-NeXT vision was fascinating in that no steps were widely anticipated. No betas, no early release, just pure visionary product. I'm a linux guy, no Apple fanboyism here, but I see what pg is trying to reference. From nowhere, blow away your competition _and_ create new markets with singular product vision. The Anti-Lean. There's a Jedi aspect to this - the next one will arrive, we just have to hope (s)he doesn't turn to the dark side.

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was Julius Caesar's nephew and successor, who ultimately did all of the things that Caesar wanted to do but never had a chance to to see done (the month of August is even named after him). In the lines that Paul mentioned his legacy, I think he means that someone similar to Steve Jobs (his would-be successor in our pop culture) could continue a similar path as Jobs. It's now clear that being a visionary in that po…

That may be it. However, it's not completely clear. >Steve Jobs has shown us what's possible. That helps would-be successors both directly, as Roger Bannister did, by showing how much better you can do than people did before, and indirectly, as Augustus did, by lodging the idea in users' minds that a single person could unroll the future for them. We've got Banister, who lead, and Augustus who followed (I mean in suc…

At the death of Julius, Rome being controlled by one man was unconscionable. By the time Augustus died the opposite was true.

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#79
Many startup ideas are about extracting a few more dollars from the end user - what kind of annoyance can we solve today? - but I think it's important to think beyond the scope of consumer products to get to the real game changers.

A lot of the value being created in the digital sphere right now revolves around collecting information about people and providing it to third parties, who in turn use it to solve problems (and collect even more data). I believe these services will change our lives the most.

For example, major innovations in the near future might revolve around creating 100% safe neighborhoods through smart surveillance. People are rapidly becoming accustomed to being tracked all the time, anyway.

Technological progress and major societal changes go hand-in-hand. I think whoever can best envision what those changes will be - and how to profit from them - will become the next Steve Jobs.

Re: Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

#80

I have my own to add which I'll tackle if I ever get smart enough. Code is horrible right now. The problem is that code is written linearly, when in our minds it is a graph. It's usually a bad sign when our minds see things differently than our computers do. I think if we could properly abstract the concepts, and change both our linear list of functions and our unsorted list of files to a single graph structure, we c…

I've been thinking exactly the same thing! My workaround so far has been to use IDEs that have some project management features, and separate the code into separate files. For example, SAS Enterprise Guide lets you create a project flow like this: http://blogs.sas.com/sasdummy/uploads/egparallel4.png Note some of the advantages: nice code structure, easy (minor) parallelization, easy code segmentation, ability to exa…

Nice! I've started using files to separate logic, I recently went from 3 tiered (GUI/code/libraries) to 4 tiered (GUI design/GUI action code/data structures and algorithms/libraries) and added folders for elements (like a custom made back arrow image) and IO samples to run my programs on. Making my software structured like this has helped, but it's far from where you can see even a simple algorithm in it's graphical form that I see in my mind, as that algorithm would all be in a single section of my structure. I'll have to look into the separate files idea, though perhaps I'll build my own custom code editor, I'm skilled in things like that, perhaps I could pull it off.
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