A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Post by GeoAtreides » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 7:50 PM UTC

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

Post by PKop » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 7:57 PM UTC

GeoAtreides wrote: post #214

oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

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Post by mistermann » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 8:05 PM UTC

bhouston wrote: post #157

oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

If you are a real oceanographer, why are you anonymous and using a throw away? You want to both use your credentials to be taken seriously in your posts, but also you want to avoid too much scrutiny of who you are.

Post by PKop » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 8:10 PM UTC

tarsinge wrote: post #226

PKop wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd love to ruin his career and publicly shame him for having incorrect views wouldn't you? Awarding credibility on the basis of having a public face is absurd, and it's trivial to conceive of the way that could be politically silencing of dissident views, or that lack of anonymity would incentivize sticking to consensus. People disagree anonymously on the internet all the time, since the beginning. Are you incapab…

What is there to judge? The original commenter is the one making an appeal to authority, then just saying they are skeptical. In short an anonymous giving their opinion. The parent is right saying it’s of way lower value than the study.

Post by mistermann » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 8:12 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #212

throwaway290 wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As always I disagree... This is the attitude that "people in charge will do something for you, and if they don't I guess we'll cope" that is undemocratic and breeds passivity. if you are concerned about something it does not mean you must be non stop stressed or forever abandon your life for single cause. You can be concerned and act in constructive ways (lead by example, talk about it, raise the issue, vote, etc), m…

No, it is not that attitude at all. It is simply recognizing that there are some things that you will not be able to influence directly. The only time when you have a fractional input on this is at the voting booth and even there the chance is that climate change will not be expressly put on the ballot but you get a mixture of components that you will be able to locally influence. But that sort of mechanism isn't wel…