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What we know about LLMs

willthompson.name

21–30 of 173 posts

Re: What we know about LLMs

#21

How do you do science on LLMs? I would imagine that is super important, given their broad impact on the social fabric. But they're non-deterministic, very expensive to train, and subjective. I understand we have some benchmarks for roughly understanding a model's competence. But is there any work in the area of understanding, through repeatable experiments, why LLMs behave how they do? Do we care?

I'm pretty much certain the cost of training and running large LLMs is going to come down, because it's only a matter of time before truly customized chips come out for these.

GPUs really aren't that. They're massively parallel vector processors that turn out to be generally better than CPUs at running these models, but they're still not the ideal chip for running LLMs. That would be a large even more specialized parallel processor where almost all the silicon is dedicated to running exactly the types of operations used in large LLMs and that natively supports quantization formats such as those found in the ggml/llama.cpp world. Being able to natively run and train on those formats would allow gigantic 100B+ models to be run with more reasonable amounts of RAM and at a higher speed due to memory bandwidth constraints.

These chips, when they arrive, will be a lot cheaper than GPUs when compared in dollars per LLM performance. They'll be available for rent in the cloud and for purchase as accelerators.

I'd be utterly shocked if lots of chip companies don't have projects working on these chips, since at this point it's clear that LLMs are going to become a permanent fixture of computing.

Re: What we know about LLMs

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not one killer app has emerged ChatGPT itself is a killer app.

About as killer as that twitter clone that was in the news for a minute after forcing people to use it and immediately losing 90% of the captive audience.. They have been losing users. Summer is here, school is out, the kids are back in reality for the moment and apparently when they aren't busy plagiarizing homework the interest is very limited.

lol, now who’s demented? Everyone I know uses it. It even diagnosed a problem with my pool filter among dozens of other uses I find for it. I like it and use it more than Google and stack overflow now. Losing the school crowd for the summer isn’t the beginning of the end, it just means there’s a cohort that doesn’t need it as much for a few months while they’re out having fun instead of stuck inside writing papers and doing math problems.

Re: What we know about LLMs

#23

ChatGPT was announced November, 2022 - 8 months ago. Time flies. Question for HN: Where are we in the hype cycle on this? We can run shitty clones slowly on Raspberry Pi's and your phone. The educational implementations demonstrate the basics in under a thousand lines of brisk C. Great. At some point you have to wonder... well, so what? Not one killer app has emerged. I for one am eager to be all hip and open minded…

There is definitely interesting and high-potential technology here. I do not think the current crop of "wrap ChatGPT in an API for XYZ business-case" startups will succeed - they will be total fails across the board. There is also an issue where anyone with an iota of experience or degree in something tangential to AI or ML can be the "genius" behind a new startup for funding - a telltale sign of bubble mentality to me.

If LLMs in their current form as human-replacement agents are cheaper versions of Fiver / mechanical turks, and we all know there are very limited, bottom-of-the-barrel use cases for those cheap labor technologies, then why would LLMs be a radical improvement? It's nonsensical.

Re: What we know about LLMs

#24

ChatGPT was announced November, 2022 - 8 months ago. Time flies. Question for HN: Where are we in the hype cycle on this? We can run shitty clones slowly on Raspberry Pi's and your phone. The educational implementations demonstrate the basics in under a thousand lines of brisk C. Great. At some point you have to wonder... well, so what? Not one killer app has emerged. I for one am eager to be all hip and open minded…

If you follow the Gartner model, there is usually a surge of high expectations right before a "trough of disillusionment" - but eventually the real applications do emerge. Humans are just impatient.

Re: What we know about LLMs

#25

Given a set of instructions, an instruction fine-tuned/aligned LLM is able (conditional on size and training quality) to reason through a set of steps to produce a desired output. This is plainly wrong. The model's growing size makes it better at guessing the outcome of a reasoning task, but little to no actual reasoning is performed. It's trivial to prove this as well, as LLMs will still fail miserably at (larger) m…

> The model's growing size makes it better at guessing the outcome of a reasoning task, but little to no actual reasoning is performed. If there's no observable difference between the behaviours, why not call it as the post did? > LLMs will still fail miserably at (larger) math problems They're neither trained on such problems, nor is that a goal for LLMs. They can however tell you how to convert that problem into st…

Which means they're this close in being able to reach out to an algebra system and run the steps and return you the result. I was just talking about this problem with someone the other day - how can it recognize that it doesn't have the answer but knows where it can get data so that it can form an answer. This seems to be the path Google is taking.

Re: What we know about LLMs

#26
post #4
post #2

You had me at "Crypto VCs & ”builders” making a hard left into AI"

As a matter of fact, there’s even more developers making a hard left into AI who have never touched crypto. The interesting follow up question is: what will they actually spend time on? Training new models? Copy pasting front ends on ChatGPT? Fine tuning models? I think many of them will be scared by how much of a hard science ML is vs just spinning up old CRUD apps

> Training new models? Copy pasting front ends on ChatGPT? Fine tuning models?

The stable diffusion community is probably 2 years more mature than the GPT, there we see gui tools of a kind (in colab notebooks) to abstract away from code and thenlots of fine tuning.

On the professional side, adobe have plugged these tools into their products. https://www.adobe.com/sensei/generative-ai/firefly.html

Re: What we know about LLMs

#27
post #21

How do you do science on LLMs? I would imagine that is super important, given their broad impact on the social fabric. But they're non-deterministic, very expensive to train, and subjective. I understand we have some benchmarks for roughly understanding a model's competence. But is there any work in the area of understanding, through repeatable experiments, why LLMs behave how they do? Do we care?

I'm pretty much certain the cost of training and running large LLMs is going to come down, because it's only a matter of time before truly customized chips come out for these. GPUs really aren't that. They're massively parallel vector processors that turn out to be generally better than CPUs at running these models, but they're still not the ideal chip for running LLMs. That would be a large even more specialized par…

I feel like it took practically no time for custom ASICs for bitcoin mining to show up, as soon as it was determined there was real money involved.

Given that there's already definitely real money involved here, I wonder what's holding up the custom AI ASICs?

Re: What we know about LLMs

#28

Given a set of instructions, an instruction fine-tuned/aligned LLM is able (conditional on size and training quality) to reason through a set of steps to produce a desired output. This is plainly wrong. The model's growing size makes it better at guessing the outcome of a reasoning task, but little to no actual reasoning is performed. It's trivial to prove this as well, as LLMs will still fail miserably at (larger) m…

> The model's growing size makes it better at guessing the outcome of a reasoning task, but little to no actual reasoning is performed. If there's no observable difference between the behaviours, why not call it as the post did? > LLMs will still fail miserably at (larger) math problems They're neither trained on such problems, nor is that a goal for LLMs. They can however tell you how to convert that problem into st…

You're missing the point, there is a difference; The answers are often wrong, and more-wrong the more complex the question gets.

They're only able to answer simple (relative-to-the-model's-size) straightforward reasoning questions. Which is a nice party trick, but not broadly useful.

They can however tell you how to convert that problem into steps that can be run in an algebra system.

Usually they can't do that very well either. Converting a problem from one description to another is algebraic reasoning, subject to the issues already mentioned.

What they can do is summarize general instructions and documentation, provided adequate training data was available.

They're neither trained on such problems, nor is that a goal for LLMs

Yes. But LLMs keep being pushed for tasks that heavily involve abstract reasoning, which is dangerous as they're unsuited for it. (E.g. Any code generation that isn't mere empty boilerplate.)

Re: What we know about LLMs

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not one killer app has emerged ChatGPT itself is a killer app.

About as killer as that twitter clone that was in the news for a minute after forcing people to use it and immediately losing 90% of the captive audience.. They have been losing users. Summer is here, school is out, the kids are back in reality for the moment and apparently when they aren't busy plagiarizing homework the interest is very limited.

It might not be a killer app for you, but it's a killer app for me as an engineer, and I'm definitely not alone.

To give a concrete example, I used it to write and test a VSCode extension that provides autocomplete and type-checking for environment variables in 46 programming languages[1]. It was the first VSCode extension I've written and I have zero experience in the majority of those languages. The whole project took a little over a week. Without ChatGPT, it would have taken months to add support for so many languages.

1 - https://www.envkey.com/integrations/vscode

Re: What we know about LLMs

#30

ChatGPT was announced November, 2022 - 8 months ago. Time flies. Question for HN: Where are we in the hype cycle on this? We can run shitty clones slowly on Raspberry Pi's and your phone. The educational implementations demonstrate the basics in under a thousand lines of brisk C. Great. At some point you have to wonder... well, so what? Not one killer app has emerged. I for one am eager to be all hip and open minded…

> Not one killer app has emerged ChatGPT itself is a killer app.

I agree. It has been indispensable for learning tensorflowjs, pytorch, and lots of other things about neural networks.
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