Oh hey, it's you again! I discovered projectionlab (formerly projectfi) on HN a while back and have been loving it. Every other "retirement calculator" I found was a dozen text fields and a simple output graph or two - Projection Lab gave me what I really wanted, which was the ability to do much more involved modeling of various scenarios: - What happens if I buy a house in X years? - What happens if my old company I…
wow! That's a level of personal financial analysis that I've never contemplated doing. It's fantastic that someone has built such a great tool for others, and you get so much value from it. For me personally, I fail to understand the point of doing this level of analysis, at lest for some of the things you listed that seem highly hypothetical and uncertain (e.g. raises, IPOs, even future mortgage rates). I guess that…
My 30 year fixed-rate mortgage at 2.6% begs to differ ;) Yes, I had lucky timing; I was able to refinance right at the start of 2022 when rates were pretty much at their lowest.
But overall, I think your assertion isn't correct. It really just depends on conditions. If rates are in general very low, you probably want that fixed-rate mortgage, even if the variable one is -- at least for now -- a little bit lower. In the US, most people get 30-year mortgages, and it's pretty much impossible to predict what rates will be like in 10, 15, 20, 25 years.
If rates are higher, and you believe the reason for that is temporary (like the inflation reduction measures going on now), a variable-rate mortgage is probably a good gamble. If rates drop, you can always refinance (either into another variable-rate mortgage, or to a fixed rate).
Honestly, the 7% now on a 30-year-fixed isn't that bad, historically. It just feels bad because we had such low rates in recent years.