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A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

thehustle.co

61–70 of 75 posts

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#61
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. Sorry, but you've just described the underpinnings of our current winner-take-most societal-wide economic systems. Every day, more and more of our systems are rooted in luck. Being born to the right family, getting into a prestigious university, getting a good job, timing the housing market, investing in the stock market, starting a…

Nope. But even if you are correct, lotteries and gambling have more of the essence of "take from the hopeful, give to the lucky" than any of the things you described.

Don't 90% of businesses fail in the first 5 years?

Sounds a whole lot like the same with a different veneer....

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#62
post #10

> Even if Mandel were to win, there was the possibility of multiple winners — a scenario that could significantly dilute the jackpot. In fact Mandel was not able to calculate the odds of multiple winners. With publicity about an outsized jackpot, the general public is also expected to buy tickets in larger numbers, making it hard to estimate the expected winnings. For that reason, I would not consider this to be gami…

True, but he followed the cardinal rule of successful traders everywhere: gamble with other peoples' money. The life insurance front sounds like a lot more work than either the algorithm or the ticket buying logistics! I wonder how much of the payouts ended up with lawyers.

> True, but he followed the cardinal rule of successful traders everywhere: gamble with other peoples' money.

Great advice if you want to be rich and unhappy. It is better to raise money and invest it wisely.

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#63
post #33

I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. And the house (almost) always wins. Yes, I have some respect for those who can game the system, because I like the house losing, but their winnings are still taken from the hopeful (or worse, the naive and stupid).

On the other hand, I love gambling in general. Take from the stupid, tax the ever loving hell out of it, and give to the schools.

I expect to lose 100% of what I go into a casino with. Those who think they can make a profit from it are profoundly stupid.

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#64

Stefan Mendel is a jew born during the Holocaust. He described how the economic state and ethnic persecution motivated him to find ways to raise the funds for getting his family out of Romania. He defines himself as Israeli-Australian that was born in Romania not as a "Romanian" as he is described in this article. A distinction that I believe is very important to him.

> Stefan Mendel is a jew born during the Holocaust.

He was born earlier than the Holocaust (especially the holocaust in Romania). Not to dismiss your point, but it's a disctinction very important to the people born duing the Holocaust.

> He described how the economic state and ethnic persecution motivated him to find ways to raise the funds for getting his family out of Romania.

As a matter of fact, Jewish people were the only people able to leave communist Romania when the borders were closed. Ana Pauker, the Romanian foreign minister (herself jewish) brokered a deal with Israel to allow 4000 jews/month to emigrate to Israel. Several other rounds of exit visas given by the Romanian government to jewish people emigrating to Israel (with oil equipement and hard cash received in return) led to basically an exodus of most jews in Romania. As an anecdote, my hometown was 80% jewish when my parents were born and two years ago, the last jewish person passed away at a littler over 100 years of age. I also have jewish ancenstry.. To post some numbers, there were ~400k jews in Romania at the end of WW2 and less than ~10k when the Iron Curtain fell. A large part of (what I consider to be) Romanian culture was lost during the cummunist quest of rewriting history and creating a 'pure' nation.

Just to put things into perspective. The communist rule in Romania was brutal and criminal even after the Red Army retreated and was under 100% Romanian leadership, and was especially brutal against ethnic minorities. Jewish people actually targeted during the anti-semitic Stalin purge which echoed in Romania as well, as local aparatchicks used this to purge the jews out of government (Anna Pauker is also a victim of that - not to defend her, she was also commie trash but a victim of antisemitism nontheless).

I don't blame the guy for wanting out.

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#65
post #33

I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. And the house (almost) always wins. Yes, I have some respect for those who can game the system, because I like the house losing, but their winnings are still taken from the hopeful (or worse, the naive and stupid).

I've long referred to the lottery as an Innumeracy Tax.

More to your point, the New York lottery long had a marketing line:

"All you need is a dollar and a dream."

My friend's riposte was: "We'll keep the dollar and you can keep the dream"

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An interesting question is whether lotteries should publish the number of tickets sold... Don't many State lotteries publish a "where your lottery dollar goes" breakdown - showing the percentages of ticket sales revenue going pay winners, going to support State programs, going to reseller commissions, and going to Lottery administrative overhead? With that breakdown, a history of the jackpot sizes, and some number-…

Just throw some GPT at it and call it a day! - UI can't wait until we hear of the next level MIT geeks in vegas armed with AI glasses doing all the card counting for them, across many tables, decks, days, tourneys etc... If there is one industry that should be afraid of AI nefariousness - it would be gambling.

All gambling except for poker is basic statistics. You are a few decades too late to trying to beat blackjack with computers. The advantages of card counting are negated anyway by multiple decks and shuffles before all the cards are dealt.

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#67
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But did he really hacked it? Or just brutforced it?

Brute forcing is hacking…

Agree, yeah!

But I guess this guy meant more like, some sort of "sophistication" like in the way that brute-force is an attack on SHA3, but no one has said publicly any better way to hack it!

Although for brute force to yield a successful hack, it must be sophisticated, by definition, otherwise it would be infeasible. And in this case, I think the guy qualifies, because he: 0) was successful, 1) reduced the brute force possibilities, and 2) rose to the logistical challenge of implementing them. Haha! :)

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#68
post #63
post #33

I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. And the house (almost) always wins. Yes, I have some respect for those who can game the system, because I like the house losing, but their winnings are still taken from the hopeful (or worse, the naive and stupid).

On the other hand, I love gambling in general. Take from the stupid, tax the ever loving hell out of it, and give to the schools. I expect to lose 100% of what I go into a casino with. Those who think they can make a profit from it are profoundly stupid.

If you’re playing against the house yes, statistically you’re gonna lose over time. But in games where your winnings come directly from beating others rather than pure luck (poker is a popular example), you can indeed beat others based on your skill.

That said, there are still a lot of factors you cannot control (like the skill of your opponents, luck of the draw) which mean your approach is absolutely the wisest. Anyone who walks into a casino with money they can’t afford to lose is setting themselves up for failure (both at the table and potentially in life).

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#69
post #21

Am I missing something here? Are these lotteries +EV in the first place? How does the lottery expect to make money if that is the case?

They’re progressive jackpots, the prize pool increases until someone wins, at which point it resets. So a ticket for an individual drawing can be +EV if no one has won in a while, with the excess money coming from players in previous games rather than the lottery administrator.

That would be true if each combination could only be bought once.

However, as you cannot know in advance how many other players will play, or what numbers they will select, you cannot properly calculate an EV. Further, lottery players rarely play randomly. A winning combination made up exclusively of numbers less than 31 has a higher chance that someone else will have the same numbers (as many people use birthdays to pick the numbers they will play).

Re: A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

#70
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Say $2MM in tickets are sold what do you think about the format: [scalar] [si-prefix] [unit]

2 megadollars? Sure, it still beats what my reading voice calls "mumums"

yea, if we can have mebibytes on our home turf, we should be able to have megadollars in meatspace
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