A Romanian economist legally gamed the lottery

Post by abwizz » Sun, Jul 23, 2023, 3:54 PM UTC

soneil wrote: post #29

kulach wrote: post #21

Am I missing something here? Are these lotteries +EV in the first place? How does the lottery expect to make money if that is the case?

We call this "roll-over", when no-one wins so the pot accumulates. This week's draw doesn't need to be profitable, the overall scheme needs to be profitable. Say $2MM in tickets are sold, putting $1MM in the pot. And no-one wins. So next week, $2MM in tickets are sold, putting $1MM in the pot - which already contained $1MM from last week. Continue this over a few weeks. After 5 weeks you have $5MM in the pot - and an…

Post by abnry » Sun, Jul 23, 2023, 3:59 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #40

abnry wrote: post #33

I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. And the house (almost) always wins. Yes, I have some respect for those who can game the system, because I like the house losing, but their winnings are still taken from the hopeful (or worse, the naive and stupid).

> I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. Sorry, but you've just described the underpinnings of our current winner-take-most societal-wide economic systems. Every day, more and more of our systems are rooted in luck. Being born to the right family, getting into a prestigious university, getting a good job, timing the housing market, investing in the stock market, starting a…

Post by ryandrake » Sun, Jul 23, 2023, 4:01 PM UTC

abnry wrote: post #43

ryandrake wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hate lotteries and gambling in general. Take from the hopeful, give to the lucky. Sorry, but you've just described the underpinnings of our current winner-take-most societal-wide economic systems. Every day, more and more of our systems are rooted in luck. Being born to the right family, getting into a prestigious university, getting a good job, timing the housing market, investing in the stock market, starting a…

Nope. But even if you are correct, lotteries and gambling have more of the essence of "take from the hopeful, give to the lucky" than any of the things you described.

Post by lordnacho » Sun, Jul 23, 2023, 4:04 PM UTC

emmender1 wrote: post #42

anotherthrway wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve come to believe that this is a universal principle: disbelief regarding feasibility prevents actualization of vision; once one sees that it is done it is as if a mental barrier has been removed.

this is so true... brilliantly put. However, even after the mental barrier is removed - Majority of us do not have the motivation to actualize our visions even after we know and believe that they are feasible. I suspect that it takes a special human emotional/energy makeup to overcome enormous obstacles in pursuit of actualizing a vision. Thats what makes entrepreneurs/hustlers special.

Post by adriand » Sun, Jul 23, 2023, 4:10 PM UTC

emmender1 wrote: post #42

anotherthrway wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve come to believe that this is a universal principle: disbelief regarding feasibility prevents actualization of vision; once one sees that it is done it is as if a mental barrier has been removed.

this is so true... brilliantly put. However, even after the mental barrier is removed - Majority of us do not have the motivation to actualize our visions even after we know and believe that they are feasible. I suspect that it takes a special human emotional/energy makeup to overcome enormous obstacles in pursuit of actualizing a vision. Thats what makes entrepreneurs/hustlers special.