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Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

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Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#91

Alternative title by me: Remote work frees up $800b to be spent more effectively.

When the paper value of an asset disappears you don't get the money back to spend elsewhere. Nobody does.

Just like lending creates money, destruction of assets destroys money. Which happens to be what we want right now, as long as it can be done in an orderly fashion.

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#92

What amazes me is that we didn't see a faster cratering in value in office space. On any given day in any capital city, perhaps 50% of office desks sit empty. Yet I can't buy an office building for cents on the dollar. Normally when supply far exceeds demand like this, companies owning those assets can't pay their bills, the building is sold, there are no buyers, auction prices crash, the crashing prices cause more c…

In the UK this isn’t even limited to office space. Business rates on any kind of retail space are so absurdly high that it is a huge barrier to entry for setting up shop.

They haven’t adapted to the continuing death of the high street at all, so you have loads of property sitting empty because the rates to lease it, on top of the rent, are too much.

In fact, a loophole was to allow a business shop to set up rent-free for a few months, and then close up just before they were due to cover tax and business rates, allowing the landlord to keep the property vacant for a while longer. This is how places like Oxford Street in London became inundated with ‘American Candy’ Stores.

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#93
post #57

I refuse to be miserable in an office just for someone else's building value.

My former employer (in London) has just instructed everyone, finally after COVID, to be in the office for 50% of the time. Many of my former colleagues starting looking for other jobs last week. It seems employers have two concerns: cost and presenteeism. The first is easily solved, downsize your office. The second, is an organisational problem. Why commute for 90 minutes each way to sit in a office with headphones o…

> It seems employers have two concerns: cost and presenteeism.

There's real value in people talking to their coworkers in person and knowing them. There's an obvious cost as well, but let's not pretend there's no value there.

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#95
This has taken such a long time to play out. It's been obvious to me since it became possible to physically move my computer out the office and take it home (c. 1990) that software development doesn't need to be done in a central building. Then when I worked in Silicon Valley in the late 90s, I did go into an office, but realized that 80% of the colleagues I interacted with were not in that office. They were either elsewhere on campus in other buildings, or in other countries. This, of course, facilitated by the internet that we were building at the time. So I moved to a location where I wanted to live, a long way from the office building. My employers' would ask that I travel to be "on site" from time to time. Fair enough, but after a few years of this I noticed that I was traveling to an empty office to have meetings where all the other participants were on the Polycom. So subsequently I only worked for clients who were mostly/fully remote. Next a pandemic, where everyone else adopts my work model. Everything's fine -- nobody is commuting and they can continue to do productive work while attending useless meetings remotely. Collaboration (aka "pair programming") is much easier thanks to remote screen sharing. Business relationships widen because nobody cares where anyone is located any more.

Heck, supposedly the personal computer was invented in a garage (not an expensive office).

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#96
post #34

What amazes me is that we didn't see a faster cratering in value in office space. On any given day in any capital city, perhaps 50% of office desks sit empty. Yet I can't buy an office building for cents on the dollar. Normally when supply far exceeds demand like this, companies owning those assets can't pay their bills, the building is sold, there are no buyers, auction prices crash, the crashing prices cause more c…

Typical business leases were 5-10 years. If you weren't willing to commit to 5 years in 2018, nobody owning a building in a major CBD wanted to see you. You could get sublets from businesses that wanted to recoup costs while moving to a bigger space, or space at the fringes or outside of the CBD. The leases are just starting to run out.

Plenty of leases have already expired.

Yet it seems landlords would prefer to leave a building empty than to lease it for a low rent.

Somehow the usual rules of supply and demand don't seem to be applying.

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#97
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Does no one like floor to ceiling windows anymore? I’m sorry if I sound sarcastic, it’s a real question. I kind of love the way some offices look on the outside.

Here's a quick one https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-explains/what-it-takes-... Short version: Commercial buildings are too deep and so you have to do fancy things to give internal apartments natural light and meet building regulations for windows.

I don't think the points made in that video will survive long-term. Zoning laws will be forced to change, i.e. minimum parking laws, single zone areas, expensive high-end designs, high-pressure plumbing per residence, lack of use of fiberoptics for sunlight lamps etc. Ideal designs will need to change to accommodate all the empty space that will slowly fall apart without use. I would hate to see all these huge buildings demolished on a shortened lifecycle.

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#98

What amazes me is that we didn't see a faster cratering in value in office space. On any given day in any capital city, perhaps 50% of office desks sit empty. Yet I can't buy an office building for cents on the dollar. Normally when supply far exceeds demand like this, companies owning those assets can't pay their bills, the building is sold, there are no buyers, auction prices crash, the crashing prices cause more c…

I was about to comment on London then saw it in your username. The City and Canary Wharf still feel like ghost towns compared to how they used to be, especially Mondays and Fridays. I work in various WeWork offices when I’m in town and they seem 80% empty, and I think they’ve relatively done well. I don’t understand how it makes sense to keep these offices open.

presumably they also contribute to corporate identity

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#99
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My former employer (in London) has just instructed everyone, finally after COVID, to be in the office for 50% of the time. Many of my former colleagues starting looking for other jobs last week. It seems employers have two concerns: cost and presenteeism. The first is easily solved, downsize your office. The second, is an organisational problem. Why commute for 90 minutes each way to sit in a office with headphones o…

> It seems employers have two concerns: cost and presenteeism. There's real value in people talking to their coworkers in person and knowing them. There's an obvious cost as well, but let's not pretend there's no value there.

Is the value quantifiable?

Re: Remote Work to Wipe Out $800B from Office Values, McKinsey Says

#100
post #6

"Remote work risks wiping $800 billion" No guesses which angle this is coming from. "Attendance still is 30% lower than what it was before the pandemic and only 37% of people are back at the office every day." And yet the world has not stopped. In fact everything seems to be going faster than ever.

> And yet the world has not stopped. In fact everything seems to be going faster than ever. Indeed. I know many people who used to religiously go to the office 5-days a week. The only time they were not in the office was when they were on holiday or they were sick. It's what they did for their entire working lives. And in some cases it's what "custom and practice" historically dictated in their industry, e.g. those w…

"The future is now and the future is hybrid or fully-remote for 99% of jobs."

I assume you mean for 99% of office jobs.

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