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In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

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Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#301
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Can you name a single vaccine that prevents infection and transmission, as in "nobody with the vaccine gets sick or gets someone else sick"? I don't think such a vaccine exists, but I might be wrong.

CDC says Polio is "99 - 100 % effective" against paralytic polio [0]. So essentially perfect efficacy. Covid vaccines look like a failure in comparison (To me the problem wasn't that the vaccines didn't perfectly to prevent infection and transmission; the problem is that the messaging from the medical field was that the vaccine _would_ prevent transmission and harmful reactions would be rare. No matter how much one squints, neither of those look remotely true.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/polio/hcp/effectiveness-dur... [1] https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-compariso...

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm not confused about any of this. I'm giving the textbook definition in this thread, right? I'm sure even sure why you are arguing with me instead of the user who started the thread by giving specific R0 numbers for influenza and SARS-CoV-2. As you say, you can't do that because R0s are characteristics of outbreaks, not viruses. So the confusion is the other way around. An outsider to the field would think R0 w…

The suggestion that SARS-CoV-2 spreads faster than influenza because two studies on different populations at different times found R0 of 2.5 vs. 1.7 respectively is indeed false--that difference is obviously within the expected spread from different environments. I thought the top reply to that comment (quoting Wikipedia) clearly implied that, so I didn't think any further effort there was required. You posted other…

> we know this because influenza cases went almost to zero during the pandemic, implying that the same behavior in the same population

We don't know this no, what you said here is just an assumption. There's a competing hypothesis (viral interference) which seems to explain the data better.

The way epidemiology currently works just cannot tell us which virus is more infectious. I agree that a rebase onto microbiology would be hard and maybe fail but the current approach has already failed. Doing difficult research that might not pan out is how they justify grant funding in the first place.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#303
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you name a single vaccine that prevents infection and transmission, as in "nobody with the vaccine gets sick or gets someone else sick"? I don't think such a vaccine exists, but I might be wrong.

CDC says Polio is "99 - 100 % effective" against paralytic polio [0]. So essentially perfect efficacy. Covid vaccines look like a failure in comparison ( To me the problem wasn't that the vaccines didn't perfectly to prevent infection and transmission; the problem is that the messaging from the medical field was that the vaccine _would_ prevent transmission and harmful reactions would be rare. No matter how much one…

> CDC says Polio is "99 - 100 % effective" against paralytic polio [0]. So essentially perfect efficacy. Covid vaccines look like a failure in comparison (You're using an arbitrary delineation which the parent didn't. "Essentially perfect" is imperfect, just like the Covid vaccines - because the measure wasn't "more than 99% effective", it's "100% effective".

> To me the problem wasn't that the vaccines didn't perfectly to prevent infection and transmission; the problem is that the messaging from the medical field was that the vaccine _would_ prevent transmission and harmful reactions would be rare. No matter how much one squints, neither of those look remotely true.

When and by who was this messaging put out? The Covid vaccines are pretty darn good at protecting you - but only from the original strains, they're not good at protecting from mutated strains. You need updated shots for that, by which time the virus has mutated further.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#304
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a thought exercise, I wonder to which group an epidemiologist would need to belong to have a sense of power? The group that says that there is a dangerous disease or the group that says that it's not particularly dangerous? PS: For people who wonder, the H factor-style ranking mechanisms for researchers means that your rank is higher (which tends to translate to more interesting work and/or more money) if you're h…

I'd think in this case it's about the response. What group of epidemiologists wouldn't get a sense of power, prestige than having daily Whitehouse meetings, continual press coverage, and effectively setting public policy based solely on their subject of expertise? That essentially hits on all three points I gave. The issue is that they'll fail to appropriately consider the broader long-term effects of lockdowns. Most…

> I'd think in this case it's about the response. What group of epidemiologists wouldn't get a sense of power, prestige than having daily Whitehouse meetings, continual press coverage, and effectively setting public policy based solely on their subject of expertise? That essentially hits on all three points I gave.

That is definitely one possibility. The other possibility being that a group of contrarian epidemiologists would get power and prestige by claiming that the first group is biased. This has happened in France, with Raoult growing a cult-like following.

> Most of the advice and policy also wasn't scientifically based in that the effectiveness wasn't well researched, so H-factor scores wouldn't play much of a role.

Well, in that case, H-factor-style scores wouldn't play much of a role because this was not research but policy.

I seem to remember that the effectiveness of lockdowns on diseases has been pretty much proved way before covid. Of course, their effect on economy may not have been studied quite as well :)

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#305
post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had people saying the same thing where i am in the states. Except that county mwdical examiner records are freely available online and did not reflect that in any way shape or form. There were still, far more deaths from overdose and suicide than Complications of Covid-19.

That's like rebutting complaints of a rigged election by saying "the vote results for each county are freely available online, and look, clearly candidate A's votes add up to 51%!". The original complaint is that hospitals were (and provably so?) given instructions on how to mark Covid deaths for statistical purposes, and those instructions were biased to inflate the numbers. At the time this was labelled as a "consp…

With there being no evidence of this supposedly widespread doctoring of records, sounds more like right-wingers got caught with their pants down driving a narrative to fit what and what they felt was right and what "TPTB" wanted, and you're all in denial now about it. The truth is out.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#306
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CDC says Polio is "99 - 100 % effective" against paralytic polio [0]. So essentially perfect efficacy. Covid vaccines look like a failure in comparison ( To me the problem wasn't that the vaccines didn't perfectly to prevent infection and transmission; the problem is that the messaging from the medical field was that the vaccine _would_ prevent transmission and harmful reactions would be rare. No matter how much one…

> CDC says Polio is "99 - 100 % effective" against paralytic polio [0]. So essentially perfect efficacy. Covid vaccines look like a failure in comparison ( You're using an arbitrary delineation which the parent didn't. "Essentially perfect" is imperfect, just like the Covid vaccines - because the measure wasn't "more than 99% effective", it's "100% effective". > To me the problem wasn't that the vaccines didn't perfe…

I’m not implying that the numbers I choose are the best to use, but I think they are a fair indication of a vaccine that is very effective vs one that is marginally effective. If you have some numbers that are less arbitrary, I’m open to new info to change my mind.

During the pandemic most health institutions were being really optimistic in their messaging about the vaccines. I guess it’s just semantics, but I don’t think you can say a vaccine is darn good then say the virus mutates too fast for the vaccine to be effective long-term. Aren’t those things in opposition?

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#307
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> CDC says Polio is "99 - 100 % effective" against paralytic polio [0]. So essentially perfect efficacy. Covid vaccines look like a failure in comparison ( You're using an arbitrary delineation which the parent didn't. "Essentially perfect" is imperfect, just like the Covid vaccines - because the measure wasn't "more than 99% effective", it's "100% effective". > To me the problem wasn't that the vaccines didn't perfe…

I’m not implying that the numbers I choose are the best to use, but I think they are a fair indication of a vaccine that is very effective vs one that is marginally effective. If you have some numbers that are less arbitrary, I’m open to new info to change my mind. During the pandemic most health institutions were being really optimistic in their messaging about the vaccines. I guess it’s just semantics, but I don’t…

> I’m not implying that the numbers I choose are the best to use, but I think they are a fair indication of a vaccine that is very effective vs one that is marginally effective. If you have some numbers that are less arbitrary, I’m open to new info to change my mind.

I don't think that any specific number is a good delineation between "ineffective" and "effective". I fundamentally disagree that the Covid vaccines are ineffective. The only way to call them ineffective is to use a delineation which no vaccine survives.

> During the pandemic most health institutions were being really optimistic in their messaging about the vaccines. I guess it’s just semantics, but I don’t think you can say a vaccine is darn good then say the virus mutates too fast for the vaccine to be effective long-term. Aren’t those things in opposition?

No, they are not in opposition. You left out the important part: the vaccines are darn good against the original virus. They are still sorta good for mutations.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#308
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would agree, but we're talking about 35 to 40% prevalence of obesity and all the attendant diseases caused by it in the US. If the next wave of the flu or pneumonia would kill those same people who were pushed over the edge by COVID, would you be for lock downs and business closings in these cases too? Because that's what happens whenever a person with that many comorbidities gets an infection like the flu or pneum…

>Sadly, my nephew in his early twenties at the time received the vax and was rushed to the emergency room by ambulance with myocarditis, and to this day has follow-up appointments to track his cardiac health. >Among 192 405 448 persons receiving a total of 354 100 845 mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines during the study period, there were 1991 reports of myocarditis to VAERS and 1626 of these reports met the case definition…

My main point was how they pushed the vax on people even when existing data showed young, healthy (which means no obese, diabetic, hypertense individuals), males were not at sufficient risk to mandate it in universities and push it on everyone regardless of the obvious data by age group, health, and susceptibility. That is not science. That is social policy and politics in the face of common sense. Please stop co-opting the word "science" in this manner.

I have had all of my children vaccinated with the standard course of immunizations, but I am glad I held off on this new vaccine. My children had COVID, and they are healthy by definition. Tell me how acting on common sense, the history of natural immunity in science, and data that was readily available on who was susceptible to COVID very early on contrary to what "The Science" (aka Social Policy and Politics) was saying , is listening to a mob? Use the same date source you used to pull your VAERS numbers and see how obvious it was who was susceptible by a margin early on, and maybe you'll be able to understand how I arrived at my decision to not vaccinate my family who already had COVID.

>...and is one of the safest vaccines ever produced.

This December 14, 2023 will be three years from the first vaccine given. "one of the safest" is a blanket statement and "one" although a quantity is non-quantifiable in that sentence. The article you site is from data collected from December 2020 to August 2021 only 8 months from first vaccine. Pfizer vaccinated their control group from the initial vaccines, so that long-term study was squashed by Pfizer. And the adverse effects data are still being collected and examined in light of reporting criteria and classification. Yet, the blanket policy to vax everyone without prioritizing by harm-benefit analysis and ignoring the science was not just negligent but intentional to push a social policy over the data. Three years is not long-term in the vaccine world. Tell me, if a long-term effect comes up like higher incidences of leukemia or other diseases or undesirable side effects 5 to 7 years from now, will you look back and feel good about the non-scientific pushing of a vaccine on those who were well outside of any reasonable benefit-to-risk ratio? I am glad my young children didn't get the vax. None in my family have had another COVID symptomatic infection or tested positive since we had it the one time. Meanwhile, "healthy" coworkers with 2 or more boosters have had multiple infections with loss of work even when working from home because they were that sick. So do you agree with vaccines and boosters for the non-susceptible demographic who have already had COVID? I'd be curious on your viewpoint on this.

EDIT: Your name explains it all ;)

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#309
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not implying that the numbers I choose are the best to use, but I think they are a fair indication of a vaccine that is very effective vs one that is marginally effective. If you have some numbers that are less arbitrary, I’m open to new info to change my mind. During the pandemic most health institutions were being really optimistic in their messaging about the vaccines. I guess it’s just semantics, but I don’t…

> I’m not implying that the numbers I choose are the best to use, but I think they are a fair indication of a vaccine that is very effective vs one that is marginally effective. If you have some numbers that are less arbitrary, I’m open to new info to change my mind. I don't think that any specific number is a good delineation between "ineffective" and "effective". I fundamentally disagree that the Covid vaccines are…

Without a delineation, how do you argue that it is effective? How how do you argue that any treatment is effective if not statistics like these? And it’s not fair to say no vaccine survives this delineation because I specifically used Polio as an example of an effective vaccine.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#310
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not implying that the numbers I choose are the best to use, but I think they are a fair indication of a vaccine that is very effective vs one that is marginally effective. If you have some numbers that are less arbitrary, I’m open to new info to change my mind. I don't think that any specific number is a good delineation between "ineffective" and "effective". I fundamentally disagree that the Covid vaccines are…

Without a delineation, how do you argue that it is effective? How how do you argue that any treatment is effective if not statistics like these? And it’s not fair to say no vaccine survives this delineation because I specifically used Polio as an example of an effective vaccine.

There isn't a magical number which means the vaccine is effective, and below that number it is ineffective. A vaccine is effective if it helps people deal with a virus (i.e. lowering chance of hospitalisation/death). It doesn't magically become ineffective because it doesn't meet an arbitrary percentage of prevented cases.

The Polio vaccine is "only" 99-100% effective. That means that it's not 100% effective (as in, there are cases where it doesn't prevent transmission/infection). According to the criterium laid out by GP this means it is an ineffective vaccine, just like the Covid vaccine.

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