Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking • Hacker News Board

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#151

Post by pests » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 1:57 PM UTC

oldtownroad wrote: post #24

taeric wrote: post #5

I support the strikes and hope it comes to a good conclusion; but this feels a touch forced, honestly. I get that it is in vogue to blame silicon valley, but hollywood has a littered history of killing their goose, as it were. For fun, consider that if netflix had stuck to the DVD model, they could still be profitable. You don't need a special license to buy a dvd and rent it out to anyone. Just as you don't need a s…

Netflix used their magical tech money to compete with studios in a wildly unprofitable way. Netflix churns out hundreds of thousands of hours of content each year at heavy, heavy losses, because they can afford to burn money to force the studios to the table. If we imagine a world in which streaming platforms were only ever licensees and not producers, it’s easy to imagine the status quo could have continued indefini…

> Netflix churns out hundreds of thousands of hours of content each year

Uhh, how much content do you think Netflix is making?

There exists 8760 hours in a year.

To produce "hundreds of thousands of hours of content each year" would require producing almost 23 hours of content for every hour in the day. Every single day.

From its creation Netflix has only produced around 1500 original shows. Give a few hours per movie and maybe 10-50 hours per show depending on episodes and seasons.

No where close to hundreds of thousands of hours of content even since their inception.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#152

Post by phpisthebest » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 2:08 PM UTC

contravariant wrote: post #6

phpisthebest wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>The economy goes from boom to bust, bust to boom, it does not have to. boom and bust is a direct result of fiat currency and manipulation of that currency by central banks

Currency is the lifeblood of the system known as a state, what exactly would you consider an alternative? Surely you're not suggesting a gold standard would solve the issue?

>>Currency is the lifeblood of the system known as a state,

Correct, which is the primary reason I oppose it. I consider the state to be part of the problem with human society

>>what exactly would you consider an alternative?

I dont proscribe a single "alternative" nor do I believe an single alternative should be mandated by a state, nor do I believe it is the proper role of a state to control the medium of exchange

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#153

Post by pests » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 2:13 PM UTC

taeric wrote: post #115

lotsofpulp wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For fun, consider that if netflix had stuck to the DVD model, they could still be profitable. Netflix is earning multiple billions of dollars in profit per year already, far more than they used to with DVDs. Also, I expect most people to prefer digital only streaming to any device they have at any time over having to deal with physical disks and single locations.

Yeah, I shouldn't have said "still be profitable." For that, I meant they could be in a stronger position to ignore studios. And it is a bit mind boggling to think of 4.4 billion in profit. Wow. Still, my point mostly stands? If the studios decide not to let Netflix stream their movies, then they don't stream their movies. This was far more hollow of a threat in the early days of streaming, but nowadays it is very co…

> It is mind boggling to me that Daredevil is no longer available on Netflix. Something they literally helped produce.

Except they didn't. Netflix was the broadcaster. Daredevil was produced by Marvel Television, ABC Studios, and Drew Goddard's production company.

In fact, originally those shows did show a Netflix bumper at start but that has been replaced now with Disney+ as that's where it now streams.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#154

Post by cudgy » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 2:29 PM UTC

taeric wrote: post #136

lotsofpulp wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population wide taste change can take years. I am just looking around at the differences in how I the people I know spend their time. I have 8 to 13 year old nieces and nephews that have zero interest in watching movies or tv shows when they come over. You would literally be punishing them by taking their YouTube or video games or TikTok away and forcing them to watch a 100min movie with you.

I also have kids in that range. And by and large, I agree that they would be distraught to not have Netflix/YouTube/etc. However, I also know that blockbuster movies are still raking in the money, as I have family insisting on seeing Barbie this week. Super excited about it. Kids also wanted to see the Mario movie. And if you have kids in that range, I am willing to bet that you are also in the demographic of people…

The kids are just as tired as many of the adults of watching super hero x version y movies with a smattering of Tom Cruise action version z. I am hopeful that Oppenheimer will be interesting …

The feigned move toward AI generated content would likely make things worse, providing bizarre fake Tom Cruise scripts generated from old real Tom Cruise scripts.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#155

Post by cudgy » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 2:36 PM UTC

darepublic wrote: post #35

lacrimacida wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me put it in perspective for you: Hollywood the actors and writers are on strike because Hollywood, the money making machinery decided to replace them with a product from SV. I don’t care for Hollywood and indeed it has gotten quite garbage anyway but I do support the actors and writers striking because they can. For the rest of us it remains to be seen how we’re going to handle it or whether we boil slowly.. In…

The non unionized would have no recourse regardless. Except going outside the current game

Yes, they could grab the reins by making their own content without the studios and putting it on YouTube or some other multimedia platform, similar to substack.com

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#156

Post by WalterBright » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 2:57 PM UTC

pests wrote: post #150

WalterBright wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Hollywood wants to full body scan me so my likeness becomes famous forever, I'm all for it. Fly me down, give me a day pass to Disneyland, and I'm good.

That's easy for you to say because you have no skin in the game. Imagine a service where a system can scan all your programming and engineering knowledge and expertise into an AI that then can be hired out to other companies infinitely and forever. You might care then because this obviously reduces the profit you can now extract from your labor.

I give away for free all my programming output. But programming isn't the only thing I can do. I'd pivot to something else. Or I'd use that AI to enhance my programming productivity.

Just like word processors have eliminated the typing pool jobs, and have also greatly improved the productivity of writers.

(I know this because my dad wrote a book before word processors, and a great deal of the time was spent typing the draft double-spaced over and over and over again.)

And lastly, if you work in a make-work profession that is more efficiently done by automation, your career is doomed one way or another. For Hollywood, if the union makes it so that making movies is cheaper outside the US, the obvious is going to happen.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#157

Post by WalterBright » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 3:01 PM UTC

slowmovintarget wrote: post #144

WalterBright wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you enjoy watching the hit TV shows and movies produced by the Soviet Union? Who is your favorite Soviet movie star?

I don't know what on earth you're talking about. I'm talking about how billionaires like Bob Iger are essentially trying to squeeze "labor" to extract more profits, which is what Wall Street did to the newspapers, to radio, to television, the music industry... We're getting ever crappier products in nearly every consumer category, because short term profits for shareholders are prioritized over the long term viabilit…

> I don't know what on earth you're talking about.

I'm talking about your statement: "Maximum profit extraction, the kind of product is irrelevant, as are the customers"

The Soviet movies were not about profit at all. Why didn't they make better movies than Hollywood?

> We're getting ever crappier products in nearly every consumer category, because short term profits for shareholders are prioritized over the long term viability of the firm.

Which corporation has done this, and have you been shorting their stock? After all, if you know which companies are doing this, you can make a mint shorting their stock.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#158

Post by cudgy » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 3:23 PM UTC

soundsgoodtome wrote: post #139

taeric wrote: post #5

I support the strikes and hope it comes to a good conclusion; but this feels a touch forced, honestly. I get that it is in vogue to blame silicon valley, but hollywood has a littered history of killing their goose, as it were. For fun, consider that if netflix had stuck to the DVD model, they could still be profitable. You don't need a special license to buy a dvd and rent it out to anyone. Just as you don't need a s…

Why don’t we reduce this down a bit? Hollywood studios are businesses. Businesses exist to create value for owners. Hollywood talent is expensive. AI tends to be much less expensive. Hollywood studio execs believe they might be able to replace expensive talent with cheap AI, thus creating more value for owners. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

How does destroying the industry you are in and making it easier for competitors to enter with crappy product create value for owners?

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#159

Post by cudgy » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 3:36 PM UTC

Turskarama wrote: post #133

bagacrap wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As seductive as that story is, the data doesn't bear it out. Hourly workers have made huge gains in the last three years at the expense of salaried workers, and flyover states are turning the tables on coastal states. Look at: real hourly wages and unemployment figures.

I have some fairly big gripes with the way inflation adjustion is calculated. Mainly: I don't think it properly covers the difference between discretionary vs non discretionary spending across different income levels. Ultimately, if you're poor, the only weightings that _actually_ affect you are (in order) food, housing, transportation, and energy. Everything else including healthcare ultimately doesn't become part o…

I’d argue housing should be first in that list, since it represents almost 50-70% of a poor persons gross income. Food is critical of course, but beans and rice with occasional road kill are cheap and can sustain someone nutritionally.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#160

Post by alephnerd » Sat, Jul 22, 2023, 5:00 PM UTC

oldtownroad wrote: post #24

taeric wrote: post #5

I support the strikes and hope it comes to a good conclusion; but this feels a touch forced, honestly. I get that it is in vogue to blame silicon valley, but hollywood has a littered history of killing their goose, as it were. For fun, consider that if netflix had stuck to the DVD model, they could still be profitable. You don't need a special license to buy a dvd and rent it out to anyone. Just as you don't need a s…

Netflix used their magical tech money to compete with studios in a wildly unprofitable way. Netflix churns out hundreds of thousands of hours of content each year at heavy, heavy losses, because they can afford to burn money to force the studios to the table. If we imagine a world in which streaming platforms were only ever licensees and not producers, it’s easy to imagine the status quo could have continued indefini…

I largely agree with you but imo this is a bad example

> their own show creators having zero royalties — look at the squid game financials

The economics of Kdramas (which is what Squid Games is) are different from that of American productions [0]. Netflix for example doesn't give residuals but is able to pay the entire production team way more than what Korean studios like Lotte, Myung, etc are able to with residuals.

A similar story happened with the rise of KDramas btw. In the early 2000s, JDramas became expensive when production houses like Sony started upping their pricing, which lead networks across Asia to start selecting cheaper dramas, which back then was Korean.

A similar shift is starting to happen again with the rising popularity of Chinese and Thai dramas (at least in ASEAN) which I feel is largely due to how their rights are now significantly cheaper than KDramas.

Imo, a similar shift also happened in OTT content in the US. Look at the "popular" (ie. Social media buzz) shows recently. It's either back catalogue shows like Community (#sixseasonsandamovie) or much cheaper produced European or Canadian shows like Kim's Convenience, Schitt's Creek, Downton Abbey, Peaky Blinder, Outlander, etc.

[0] - https://factsanddetails.com/korea/South_Korea/K-Dramas_Telev...