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Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

latimes.com

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Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#121

Post by bagacrap »

Turskarama wrote: post #73
bagacrap wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't have ever detected this supposed recession if I hadn't been constantly warned of it by the media

There's a two speed economy. If you're in the low speed part earning less than the median then you're already in recession. If you're in the high speed part you will be in recession when you stop being able to extract money from the low speed economy.

As seductive as that story is, the data doesn't bear it out. Hourly workers have made huge gains in the last three years at the expense of salaried workers, and flyover states are turning the tables on coastal states.

Look at: real hourly wages and unemployment figures.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#122

Post by taeric »

scarface_74 wrote: post #117
taeric wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? That shows that covid took a huge swipe at them. Which is not really a surprise to anyone. The numbers for this year look to almost be back to where they were? I'm not clear what the evidence you are showing is actually showing?

The last full year is 2022 and those numbers are about the same as 2020. Covid was basically behind us by 2022 as far as people being overly concerned.

Right, the last full year was already back to 60% of the pre covid. This year is already on track to be back to 90%ish, if not back at growth. Such that the dip is clearly more attributable to what happened in the year 2020. None of the supposed "competitors" listed originated that year. So, again, I'm not sure that is showing the evidence of competition to big budget entertainment.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#123

Post by JumpCrisscross »

phpisthebest wrote: post #3
monero-xmr wrote: post #2

The economy goes from boom to bust, bust to boom, new technologies and ideas come, the novelty wears off and reality sets in (but the gems stick around!), so on and so forth. One thing that was unique this cycle was the extended period of near-zero interest rates in the rich world - this made the boom very big. I’m not sure it’s “Silicon Valley” thinking other than as a euphemism for subsidizing losses in hopes of fu…

>>The economy goes from boom to bust, bust to boom, it does not have to. boom and bust is a direct result of fiat currency and manipulation of that currency by central banks

> boom and bust is a direct result of fiat currency

Because there was no boom and bust before fiat…

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#124

Post by lotsofpulp »

jrumbut wrote: post #111
fnord77 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if they're being replaced, what good is a strike going to do?

This is a fight over (among many other things) who realizes the benefits of AI/streaming. AI might mean that writers are freed from drudgery, their talents enhanced with powerful AI tools and now have a much more pleasant job that pays the same or perhaps more because they can produce more content or higher quality content. This is the Star Trek future. AI could also mean that professional writers are barely needed.…

>Anyone who relies on selling their labor to feed themselves and their families needs to be advocating for my first scenario, where productivity gains from AI are shared between workers, executives, and investors rather than monopolized by one or the other.

I feel like the only way to effectively do this is to advocate for higher marginal income/wealth taxes that redistribute those productivity gains. Trying to fight for it on a business to business basis is easily a losing battle.

For example, one is going to wonder why they should pay more for groceries if technology can help them pay less.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#125

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tekla wrote: post #9

I continue to wonder how much studios are ACTUALLY hurt by this strike. The studios have reserves of money, they still get money from streaming existing content. And short term they can still release content that are in post-prod enough to release. On the other hand, the public supports of the strike amounts to ... wanting new TV shows and movies. It's annoying for many I'm sure, but its not exactly something that ke…

> wonder how much studios are ACTUALLY hurt by this strike

Netflix is fine. The others are hurting, but not bleeding, except maybe Discovery. Keep in mind the top-paid actors take in about as much as the top-paid studio heads.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#126

Post by taeric »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #118
taeric wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? That shows that covid took a huge swipe at them. Which is not really a surprise to anyone. The numbers for this year look to almost be back to where they were? I'm not clear what the evidence you are showing is actually showing?

Their net income trends look awful, especially taking into account inflation and the rest of the economy. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-inc... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WBD/warner-bros-di... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PARA/paramount-glo... Comcast, Sony, Netflix, Apple, and Amazon seem to be the other big players, and Netflix seems to be the only pure media co…

Again, though, you have to find a better reason than TikTok and friends to explain a slump that seems to have started at the same time as the pandemic.

Were there choices made during the pandemic that are hurting them in other ways? Almost certainly. But I'm not seeing how that is true for the claimed competition being what is hurting them, as these things existed pre pandemic, but only started really factoring in after it?

That is why I said "ish." It certainly sounds plausible. I'm not clear the evidence is showing it, though.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#127

Post by taeric »

genmud wrote: post #119
taeric wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the way that residuals played out for syndicated shows is ultimately a large part of the decline for the guild members. I am still a little curious on a few things in this. For one, I'm not clear on how long residuals can last in a sustainable way. Pretty much no matter how I try and simulate this payment model, it falls on needing more income from future participants. Not quite a ponzi scheme, as you are not…

> I'm not clear on how long residuals can last in a sustainable way They were possible before, since there was much less content available at any given time. The media industry is in a bit of a death spiral it feels like, with a race to the bottom in many ways. When broadcast tv was a bigger thing, syndicated shows were licensed to stations, who typically sold ad slots, allowing them to pay the licensing fees. The pr…

I'd rephrase your first as they were easy to keep up when everything was growing. That is, again, I don't see how residuals can be a lasting form of payment for people like this. Note that this is decidedly not saying that I don't think they should be getting them now. Mine is a longer term question.

Also, cards on the table, I'm ultimately a fan of basic income, which can effectively be seen as residuals for everyone. No need to pretend that it is tied to specific work where folks are basically in a lottery to see if they can get their name on the big ticket item that everyone wants.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#128

Post by lotsofpulp »

LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #81
taeric wrote: post #5

I support the strikes and hope it comes to a good conclusion; but this feels a touch forced, honestly. I get that it is in vogue to blame silicon valley, but hollywood has a littered history of killing their goose, as it were. For fun, consider that if netflix had stuck to the DVD model, they could still be profitable. You don't need a special license to buy a dvd and rent it out to anyone. Just as you don't need a s…

> That is all to say, no, SV is not the root of the problem here. In 2015, %80 of people watched network tv regularly and 50% had streaming accounts. That has flipped in the last 8 years. Total television revenue has declined 35% in that timeframe. What’s happening to television now is what happened to newspapers 10 years ago: low-cost distribution alternatives disrupted the major networks and created new business mo…

>The fact is that Netflix was first to adopt streaming and did so with vast venture capital backing.

Netflix has been a publicly listed company since May 2002, has been posting profits since 2003, and started streaming in Jan 2007.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#129

Post by scarface_74 »

taeric wrote: post #122
scarface_74 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last full year is 2022 and those numbers are about the same as 2020. Covid was basically behind us by 2022 as far as people being overly concerned.

Right, the last full year was already back to 60% of the pre covid. This year is already on track to be back to 90%ish, if not back at growth. Such that the dip is clearly more attributable to what happened in the year 2020. None of the supposed "competitors" listed originated that year. So, again, I'm not sure that is showing the evidence of competition to big budget entertainment.

Typo. I meant 2000.

Re: Hollywood is on strike because CEOs fell for Silicon Valley’s magical thinking

#130

Post by taeric »

nitwit005 wrote: post #78
oldtownroad wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix used their magical tech money to compete with studios in a wildly unprofitable way. Netflix churns out hundreds of thousands of hours of content each year at heavy, heavy losses, because they can afford to burn money to force the studios to the table. If we imagine a world in which streaming platforms were only ever licensees and not producers, it’s easy to imagine the status quo could have continued indefini…

> If we imagine a world in which streaming platforms were only ever licensees and not producers, it’s easy to imagine the status quo could have continued indefinitely. That'd have been great, but they studios decided they wouldn't license their content to them. Instead they went off to make their own streaming services, with their content exclusive to it. They effectively forced Netflix to start making content, or fa…

For more in that "goofy behavior" line, it is mind boggling that the Netflix exclusives of Daredevil and other Marvel shows are no longer viewable on Netflix.
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