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There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

bbc.com

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Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#121

Post by defrost »

lnwlebjel wrote: post #102
kardianos wrote: post #7

[flagged]

The author at the link suggests many possible mechanisms for getting heat from within the earth to the oceans and atmosphere. I can't comment on the geology, but this from the link: "Abyssal ocean conveyance belts pull novel heat content from small-footprint yet now much hotter contribution points exposed to the asthenosphere – and convey (not conduct, convect, nor radiate) this novel heat content through oceanic adv…

The key part of that wall of "and so to ..." handwaving is:

    Part of The Heat May Indeed Be Coming from Beneath Our Feet
which is absolutely 100% true.

The earth's core used to much hotter, its slowly cooling (over a very long timescale).

The earth's crust used to have active natural fission reactors from masses of uranium - they've all cooled and are not longer active (although still with higher than usual gamma spectrum activity).

The bearing of any of that on the current climate issue though is essentially none. nada. zilch.

Over the past 1000 years the change in cooling rate (transfer of heat from below to atmosphere) has been infintessimal (as a global average) there's been no sudden increase in rate of heat from below.

Similarly, on average in the same time period, there's been no real meaningful change in the energy coming in from the sun.

Increased energy trapped in the sea | land | troposhere layer is just about entirely due to increased thermal insulation caused by increased CO2, methane, and water vapour.

ie same energy from above and same from below - the change in the past 100 years has been the amount of energy trapped.

Our "very simple, very reasonable model" for bulk coarse behaviour wrt energy inputs, transfers, outputs for the sphereical onion layer in which we live is robust, well measured, and includes the sun and core as inputs.

The tricky part these days is refining the "small details" of how increased energy will drive changes in and between the earth's climatic cells.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#122

Post by bena »

JohnFen wrote: post #95
bena wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the one thing I dislike about Penn Jillette. The way he excuses himself from his former stance on climate change. He accepts it now, but he says "there wasn't enough evidence back then" and "they didn't do a good enough job to convince [me]". But it's not their job to convince him. They're the ones who have spent their lives studying this. And they're convinced. The number of people with the education and exp…

But he changed his position, and that's all that really matters. Why he held a different position before isn't actually that important, and I'm not inclined to criticize or shame anyone for stances they no longer have.

He spent a lot of time and effort working against people who were working to promote climate change and mitigate its effects. Years, articles, TV shows. And he dismisses all of that with a “eh, guess I was wrong, still their fault”.

He hasn’t spent nearly the effort trying to correct his mistake that he spent making it.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#123

Post by vel0city »

femiagbabiaka wrote: post #115
lotsofpulp wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not the tiebreaker. There are 49 other votes that could also be a tiebreaker. > Have Democrats never had the political power to make change? Did the Obama presidency not exist? Correct. They had the votes for 6 months in 2009 in which they passed the most comprehensive reform that I have seen in my adult life, the Affordable Care Act. > If democrats were as militant about their positions as the GOP, maybe they’…

But see, you’ve already given up the game: The Dems had a supermajority then, there were no compromises that had to be made except amongst themselves . So the Manchins of the party matter. A lot. And it’s not just Manchin — Pelosi up until the end was only two clicks left of him herself. And just like you’re doing now, the Dems use the GOP as an excuse instead of ramming their political agenda through for all of our…

So what, were you expecting them to solve every single problem the US faces in six months, and since they didn't clearly they just weren't actually trying and obviously the same as the GOP?

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#124

Post by lordnacho »

jdminhbg wrote: post #26
jmclnx wrote: post #10

Then there is this: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66256101 >in fact I'm very pessimistic about achieving even 2C In the US, the GOP refused to do anything and held the US hostage so they could cash in by taking bribes from the fossil fuel industry. The other party was too afraid to stand up to the GOP and fossil fuel industry, so nothing at all was done except talk. All the hot air from the pols taking…

US carbon emissions peaked in 2000 and have been falling since, even without a per capita adjustment: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/carb... Different politics in the US might have made some difference on the margin in lowering them more, but it's not really the main issue.

Carbon released by processes in the US, or carbon released by consumption of Americans, including that released elsewhere?

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#125

Post by willcipriano »

V__ wrote: post #113
willcipriano wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> battery storage is just starting to catch up Wait a minute. I thought solar is cheaper. Now you are telling me they need batteries? I would've assumed that the batteries are part of that cheaper claim, otherwise you wouldn't have power at night at that claim would be very disingenuous. Sounds like the developing world still needs fossil fuels to escape poverty.

Depending on what type of battery you use or how long you want to store it, it can be cheaper or cost competitive. But the same factors apply as well, production capacities are not catching up fast enough. Still, The end of fossil fuels is inevitable, as renewable sectors keep growing. Also, the potential for small nuclear reactors or maybe even fusion could change this even faster. If politics had backed renewables…

> Still, The end of fossil fuels is inevitable,

I agree, but until we are using renewables exclusively (as in the first world) wagging a finger at places where the average income is a tenth of ours is really unacceptable. They can't afford batteries yet and they deserve power in the evening as much as we do.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#126

Post by netsharc »

m463 wrote: post #116
myshpa wrote: post #62

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/ We've added the energy of 25 billion nuclear bombs to the Earth system in just the last 50 years. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-ocean-heat-new-r... Last year, researchers say, the ocean heated up an amount equal to the energy of five of those bombs detonating underwater "every second for 24 hours a day for the entire year." ... the ocean in 2022 was "th…

I wonder if we could just stop flying planes for a while (which might lead to global cooling, like the days after 9/11/2001)

There's a BBC documentary that suggest contrails and pollutants help block the sunlight from reaching the earth, and that the airspace lockdown lead to a slight warming: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7p6z05

But newer research says the Covid reduction of flights caused only very small warming (and not even cooling):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming:

> The global response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic led to a reduction in global air traffic of nearly 70% relative to 2019. Thus, it provided an extended opportunity to study the impact of contrails on regional and global temperature. Multiple studies found "no significant response of diurnal surface air temperature range" as the result of contrail changes, and either "no net significant global ERF" (effective radiative forcing) or a very small warming effect. On the other hand, the decline in sulfate emissions caused by the curtailed road traffic and industrial output during the COVID-19 lockdowns did have a detectable warming impact: it was estimated to have increased global temperatures by 0.01–0.02 °C initially and up to 0.03 °C by 2023, before disappearing.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#127

Post by netsharc »

la64710 wrote: post #67
jdminhbg wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US carbon emissions peaked in 2000 and have been falling since, even without a per capita adjustment: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/carb... Different politics in the US might have made some difference on the margin in lowering them more, but it's not really the main issue.

Yet all the CEOs are screaming in unison - get back to office get on with your commute and pollute the earth more. Neither the government or the politicians or the CEOS or even the common people are willing to reimagine a more sustainable way of life. They are more willing to find reasons to maintain the status quo.

No one (or very few people) wants to give up luxuries like beach holidays in Thailand, electronic gadgets, steak. And if they do and someone else still get to enjoy them (e.g. billionaires, or just the wealthier Westerners), they get resentful - I think India got quite mad about "The West" dictating that people should travel less, "How fair", they say, "Westeners have been having good food and seeing the world for decades, and now when it's affordable to the poorer nations, Western leaders say 'how about we make it more expensive (e.g. by Carbon tax) so less people do it'."

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#128

Post by netsharc »

pastor_bob wrote: post #58
srgpqt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like the boiled frog, perhaps we have not even realized that we are already cooked/doomed.

[flagged]

And if your area's electricity grid goes down?

Even France had a problem with keeping their nuclear power plant running last year, the rivers didn't have enough water for cooling, and they weren't allowed to dump overly heated water because it would hurt the environment, so the only solution was to reduce production...

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#129

Post by femiagbabiaka »

vel0city wrote: post #123
femiagbabiaka wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But see, you’ve already given up the game: The Dems had a supermajority then, there were no compromises that had to be made except amongst themselves . So the Manchins of the party matter. A lot. And it’s not just Manchin — Pelosi up until the end was only two clicks left of him herself. And just like you’re doing now, the Dems use the GOP as an excuse instead of ramming their political agenda through for all of our…

So what, were you expecting them to solve every single problem the US faces in six months, and since they didn't clearly they just weren't actually trying and obviously the same as the GOP?

You’re moving the goal posts. They didn’t even hit the mark on the only thing they tried to do.. they completely lost the Obamacare campaign with the American people as well. During the Obamacare rollout I was actually on the ground in rural Missouri educating people, trying to get them on board with Medicaid expansion. They didn’t want to hear it until I personalized the message, talked about rural healthcare disparities, etc. Instead of doing that, bringing a left wing message to working people, the Dems (including the senator I was working for at the time) just moved to the right. I was there, I remember what happened. I remember Hillary pandering to the right. I remember the moves like the anti-LGBTQ rhetoric from Dems. I expect better from the only viable liberal party in America.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#130

Post by sillywalk »

silisili wrote: post #89
sillywalk wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Once and for all!" I think of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYp6oc37ds

This is the clip that got me to watch the show. Let's be honest, the premise was pretty boring. So glad I did. Some great acting and really clever writing.

I've actually never watched the show :)
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