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There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

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Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#91

Post by mullingitover »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #22
srgpqt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like the boiled frog, perhaps we have not even realized that we are already cooked/doomed.

I don't know, I feel like it's already pretty obvious that we're "cooked/doomed", with some caveats: 1. Even in the worst case I haven't seen any level-headed scientists argue that the Earth will be uninhabitable a la Venus. We'll get a hotter planner, sea levels will rise considerably inundating coastal areas, the current anthropocene extinction event will accelerate, storms will be a lot more intense, etc. Obviousl…

The vast majority of human history has been the Stone Age. It’s the stable state. What’s doomed is this temporary blip that has resulted from the explosion of free energy.

The human species will survive and will simply go back to the Stone Age and stay there another million years, this time without the risk of stumbling onto vast amounts of easy, free, dangerous carbon-based energy.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#92

Post by JohnFen »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #41
kardianos wrote: post #7

[flagged]

Isn't this more scary? If the earths core was really the cause of warming, then it is really unlikely we can do anything to stop it. This is what I don't get about climate deniers justifying we shouldn't do anything because it is NOT 'Human-Caused'. If it is 'Human-Caused' we could possibly do something by changing our behavior. If it is NOT 'Human-Caused' then we really don't have many options. By saying it isn't 'h…

> If it is NOT 'Human-Caused' then we really don't have many options.

I think that's the appeal. If there's nothing we can do, then that's a license to keep doing what we as a species clearly want to keep doing. If we're all doomed, then we might as well party until the end, after all.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#93

Post by hedgehog »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #22
srgpqt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like the boiled frog, perhaps we have not even realized that we are already cooked/doomed.

I don't know, I feel like it's already pretty obvious that we're "cooked/doomed", with some caveats: 1. Even in the worst case I haven't seen any level-headed scientists argue that the Earth will be uninhabitable a la Venus. We'll get a hotter planner, sea levels will rise considerably inundating coastal areas, the current anthropocene extinction event will accelerate, storms will be a lot more intense, etc. Obviousl…

Depending what all the other effects you describe do to food production and communicable disease spread "we'll all be dead" may be only a moderate exaggeration of the effect over say a century or two.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#94

Post by ChuckMcM »

Always a spicy topic here on HN.

I point out to folks that if you look at planets that have high heat load in their atmosphere they also have constant atmospheric storms.

If this planet is typical, what that means is that eventually there will be hurricanes in the mid-latitudes that last for months. Basically one hurricane (or typhoon) slamming into the continent after another. With the higher sea level and hurricane induced storm surge, water levels will have 10 - 30' (3 - 10m) annual fluctuations. Further north and south its just going to be a lot more water during the wet season.

Sadly, if you're reading this it is my expectation you will live to see it happen.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#95

Post by JohnFen »

bena wrote: post #40
bad_alloc wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This pseudo-intellectual doubt in the face of overwhelming scientific consensus is pathetic and part of the problem. What is the goal? Laying breadcumbs for climate-change deniers to follow to some trap for the gullible?

This is the one thing I dislike about Penn Jillette. The way he excuses himself from his former stance on climate change. He accepts it now, but he says "there wasn't enough evidence back then" and "they didn't do a good enough job to convince [me]". But it's not their job to convince him. They're the ones who have spent their lives studying this. And they're convinced. The number of people with the education and exp…

But he changed his position, and that's all that really matters. Why he held a different position before isn't actually that important, and I'm not inclined to criticize or shame anyone for stances they no longer have.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#96

Post by dang »

Related. Others?

Unprecedented ocean temps “surpassing model predictions,” warn experts - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36684146 - July 2023 (29 comments)

New record anomaly for North Atlantic sea surface temperatures - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36433737 - June 2023 (56 comments)

Ocean temperatures are off the charts - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36319055 - June 2023 (13 comments)

World’s oceans at record high temperature for 80 consecutive days - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36187203 - June 2023 (119 comments)

Ocean Temperature - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35926821 - May 2023 (53 comments)

Ocean-surface temperatures are breaking records - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35841748 - May 2023 (125 comments)

Ocean Warming Study So Distressing, Some Scientists Didn't Want to Talk About It - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35747417 - April 2023 (73 comments)

Oceans’ sudden temperature spike stumps and alarms scientists - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35743531 - April 2023 (5 comments)

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#97

Post by [deleted] »

dang wrote: post #96

Related. Others? Unprecedented ocean temps “surpassing model predictions,” warn experts - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36684146 - July 2023 (29 comments) New record anomaly for North Atlantic sea surface temperatures - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36433737 - June 2023 (56 comments) Ocean temperatures are off the charts - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36319055 - June 2023 (13 comments) World’s o…

[deleted]

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#98

Post by lnwlebjel »

christkv wrote: post #77

We are going through a very active solar cycle reaching the probable maximum. The sun is pumping out a lot more energy than normal. To ignore the sun as a relevant factor for warmer summers seems just bad science. Initially, peak activity was forecast to begin in July 2025. Now, experts believe the cyclical peak is more likely to take place in mid- to late 2024. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/14/world/solar-maximum-…

It's not ignored. From NASA:

"The amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century."

Relevant figure: https://royalsociety.org/-/media/Royal_Society_Content/polic...

It's not a lot. See also:

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-chan...

If you have better data, I'd like to see it.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#99

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

hedgehog wrote: post #93
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, I feel like it's already pretty obvious that we're "cooked/doomed", with some caveats: 1. Even in the worst case I haven't seen any level-headed scientists argue that the Earth will be uninhabitable a la Venus. We'll get a hotter planner, sea levels will rise considerably inundating coastal areas, the current anthropocene extinction event will accelerate, storms will be a lot more intense, etc. Obviousl…

Depending what all the other effects you describe do to food production and communicable disease spread "we'll all be dead" may be only a moderate exaggeration of the effect over say a century or two.

That's my point, without more information that doesn't make sense:

1. I don't doubt disruption in global food production will likely cause some famines, but again, plenty of places will still be able to grow food, and in fact many places will open up to food production.

2. I don't see how any increase in communicable disease spread leads to anything close to "we'll all be dead".

Yes, lots of people will die due to the impacts of global warming, but nothing I've seen says there is any reason to think it will be a species ending effect.

Re: There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried

#100

Post by JohnFen »

christkv wrote: post #90
JohnFen wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the sun's influence is being ignored.

Sure it does, just read the article from the BBC, not a single place does it mention the current solar maximum.

I don't think a single piece from popular media demonstrates the full spectrum of thought amongst the experts.

If you look at the actual research, solar effects are absolutely being taken into account.

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