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The illusion of AI’s existential risk

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121–130 of 154 posts

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a time when 90% of the labour force worked in agriculture. If I lived in the 1600s I'd be terribly concerned that mass unemployment would coincide with large increases in agricultural productivity. However, when the agricultural sector became more productive the 'winners' wanted bigger houses, travel, education, healthcare etc and this provided enough opportunity for the displaced workers to find jobs. Thes…

This is a common trope, but the reality is that the winners bought the farms from folks who couldn't compete. The ex-farmers did not go on to find better compensation, they just became poor. Their children perhaps found a larger salary in the information economy, but ask them how many acres they can pass on to their grandchildren.

It’s important to distinguish between the farmers pushed out of agriculture and those pulled towards the industrial/service sector.

Some of the farmers pushed out of agriculture were in a truly terrible position. Some effectively exiled into other countries (e.g highland clearances in Scotland) or left with no choice beyond military service in poor conditions.

Other ex-farmers were pulled into the high wage new economy sectors. I imagine this was a comparatively happier experience, although not without its difficulties. For example, the shipbuilding or railway workers. In a more modern example, the Chinese factory worker.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common trope, but the reality is that the winners bought the farms from folks who couldn't compete. The ex-farmers did not go on to find better compensation, they just became poor. Their children perhaps found a larger salary in the information economy, but ask them how many acres they can pass on to their grandchildren.

It’s important to distinguish between the farmers pushed out of agriculture and those pulled towards the industrial/service sector. Some of the farmers pushed out of agriculture were in a truly terrible position. Some effectively exiled into other countries (e.g highland clearances in Scotland) or left with no choice beyond military service in poor conditions. Other ex-farmers were pulled into the high wage new econo…

Yeah, I've been trying to figure out how to feel about china "lifting a billion people out of poverty" for a long while, because if I squint it kinda looks like land owners getting displaced by a government that would rather work then to death in cities than allow them a meek existence in the countryside. For young people, having a wage and the agency to spend it how they choose is worth a lot, but I still wonder how much choice they really have. I suppose it's a matter of whether you see a future for yourself down on the farm vs where all the economic growth and excitement lies.

But even given that the kids will be alright, my point was that the breadwinners displaced by progress do not find an alternate income - they rely on the next generation to adapt.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#123

This is a truly awful article. I'm mildly positive towards AI because I think people tend to react with fear and examine the risks without equivalently examining the rewards, and I think that's happening here and the rewards seem amazing. But the arguments of risk are serious and plausible and this article is just lazily dismissive of them. > AI is not competing for resources with human beings. A superintelligence wo…

> A superintelligence will be able to convince anyone it wants to do anything for it. What is the evidence for such an extravagant claim? Is there a correlation between IQ delta and persuadability that has no degradation as the lower IQ rises? Especially given that there are plenty of people far more intelligent than the President in your example who are much less persuasive.

Just define intelligence as "ability to do a task". The human brain isn't magical, it can simulated, so we know for certain that a powerful enough AI can be at least as skilled at any given task as the most skilled human who has ever lived.

So for any given person, consider how well the most effective persuader out of 8 billion people would be at persuading them. Maybe they can't always persuade them of anything, but pretty close. This is the lower bound for an AI's maximum theoretical abilities, and it's already enough to rule the world.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s important to distinguish between the farmers pushed out of agriculture and those pulled towards the industrial/service sector. Some of the farmers pushed out of agriculture were in a truly terrible position. Some effectively exiled into other countries (e.g highland clearances in Scotland) or left with no choice beyond military service in poor conditions. Other ex-farmers were pulled into the high wage new econo…

Yeah, I've been trying to figure out how to feel about china "lifting a billion people out of poverty" for a long while, because if I squint it kinda looks like land owners getting displaced by a government that would rather work then to death in cities than allow them a meek existence in the countryside. For young people, having a wage and the agency to spend it how they choose is worth a lot, but I still wonder how…

Outside of North America, it was relatively rare for farmers to own their land. Tenant farming and serfdom were more common in Europe/Japan. In China, as a general principle, the government itself owned all land during the Mao era.

Farmer-landowners are much more financially resilient to technological change because (generally) the same technologies which reduced the value of their labour increased the value of their property.

I suspect this difference in historic land ownership had a big impact on subsequent politics and it's something I'm looking to read more about.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#125

I’m just re-reading Blindsight by Peter Watts, a novel that is amazingly prescient in — amongst other things — its predictions of this coming economic upheaval. Speaking of… one scene in the book has humans communicating with an alien that appears to have “learned” human speech by training a non-sentient LLM on human ship-to-ship transmissions, and then “fine tuned” it to achieve the desired communication goal withou…

> non-sentient LLM I don't think it is described as non-sentient in the book, but only as lacking consciousness. Consciousness not being required for sentience is one of the two major themes of the book (the other being that consciousness is an evolutionary dead end). Still your example is very relevant. I very much believe that ChatGPT, for example, is not conscious. The question is if it has some amount of sentienc…

I just finished reading this book after someone in Hacker News plugged the book last week. I agree with your assessment. The book explores different types of intelligence.

Similar to the book Solaris (there is a new English translation, and I recommend both the US and Russian movies).

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#127

This is a truly awful article. I'm mildly positive towards AI because I think people tend to react with fear and examine the risks without equivalently examining the rewards, and I think that's happening here and the rewards seem amazing. But the arguments of risk are serious and plausible and this article is just lazily dismissive of them. > AI is not competing for resources with human beings. A superintelligence wo…

> A superintelligence will be able to convince anyone it wants to do anything for it. This "just so" claim has always struck me as quite a reach. Humans are manipulable, yes, especially by (perceived) group pressure, but there are still limits. Especially if the human can easily just mute the AI's output. It's like when people believe that a sufficiently clever hacker can get a given program to do anything. There are…

> This "just so" claim has always struck me as quite a reach. Humans are manipulable, yes, especially by (perceived) group pressure, but there are still limits.

You could reimagine it as "convince most people to do anything, including killing people who are unconvinced" if you prefer.

> There's a few links in the article - which person are you referring to?

Sorry, this link, which is attached to "bomb" in the article: https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-no...

> Being the most prominent voice calling something unsafe is not an inherently valuable qualification.

That's true. But the article does something odd instead of making that critique -- it presents bombing GPU data centers as a reductio ad absurdum, suggesting if you really believed in AI risk then you would have to be willing to consider doing that. The people who really believe in AI risk already are willing to consider it, though.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as a significant share of the population is „irrelevant“ and treated as such (read: no good welfare, …), capitalism will end quickly. „Who owns the machines that generate value“ will shift from individuals/corporations towards a public good, and Marx ultimately was right.

Yeah, but capitalists have all the guns. Not directly, but the hired guns (police, military), work for the capitalists. In fact, if you watch The Rules for Rulers , there’s the possibility of turning the entire world into a 3rd world corrupted structure: a few people at the top enjoying the riches of full automation, a few more people with guns to protect them from the unwashed masses, and everyone else. If democracy…

The tipping point is when some „unwashed masses“ decide to go to a billionaire mansion and explain them (forcefully) that they aren’t billionaires any longer, and neither the security staff nor the called police will step in, since they are part of the masses (family ties, defunding, …). Why should they do cruel work for a salary if they can take their part of the wealth directly?

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#130
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a difference between evil and indifferent if you are on the receiving end? Humanity is largely indifferent to animal welfare and animals would qualify it as evil how we treat them.

I am currently a bit of a doomer and if I had a magic wand, I'd pause AI research for the foreseeable future because I don't think it's creating a better world for children, at least from what I've seen so far however...to your point. I think we're only like this to animals because we are animals (we forgot), and we compete for the same type of resources they need, water, protein, calories, we're not intelligent enou…

I do agree that we might live peacefully with AIs because they need different things. Two points:

We still compete for space and energy at the very least.

Humans are sympathetic to animals because we are alike. We don’t want animals to suffer. However, will an AI be sympathetic to humans because we „think alike“? We don’t know.

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