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The illusion of AI’s existential risk

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Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#11

Post by version_five »

__loam wrote: post #10
janalsncm wrote: post #7

I don’t understand why economic disruption and human obsolescence isn’t considered an existential risk. We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm. In that case, you don’t need killer robots in order to push humanity towards near-extinction. The invisible hand will smite them. But don’t worry, TED Talk attendee. The obsoletariat mo…

This is a problem with capitalism in general, not just with AI.

We're seeing this happen a lot with "AI" - now that it's a super popular topic people use it as the lens though which they project their general political grievances. It gets more attention.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#12

Post by hashstring »

Yes, this is a good take.

The general discussion is definitely prematurely focused on some sort of end-boss fight, while AI and large scale data collection are causing serious harm and privacy concerns to real humans already. It’s only reasonable to expect that this increases in the future.

I would like to see more discussion focussing on these pressing issues.

Also a pause on AI development is not an option, not a solution and is digressing from the issue at hand. Big capital with their hands on big valuable data will support anything that distracts here.

Finally, I do think that AI also brings many positives, I am not against the technology itself at all- we shouldn’t be.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#13

Post by janalsncm »

__loam wrote: post #10
janalsncm wrote: post #7

I don’t understand why economic disruption and human obsolescence isn’t considered an existential risk. We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm. In that case, you don’t need killer robots in order to push humanity towards near-extinction. The invisible hand will smite them. But don’t worry, TED Talk attendee. The obsoletariat mo…

This is a problem with capitalism in general, not just with AI.

Well, it’s a problem with any economic system which uses labor as a proxy for value/rights. If my political power is predicated on my ability to withdraw labor or move to a new country, it’s not going to be good for me when my services are no longer required.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#14

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

janalsncm wrote: post #7

I don’t understand why economic disruption and human obsolescence isn’t considered an existential risk. We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm. In that case, you don’t need killer robots in order to push humanity towards near-extinction. The invisible hand will smite them. But don’t worry, TED Talk attendee. The obsoletariat mo…

It's a bizarre and blinkered article. The most immediate dangers are economic. We already have a hopelessly unstable economic system, with increasing swathes of the population economically disenfranchised. AI is more likely to accelerate that than prevent it.

The other immediate dangers are social and political. When one person with resources can run an AI-enhanced troll farm and social media PR engine - not even remotely science fiction - we have a serious problem.

Those threats are already politically and culturally existential.

And that's before anyone has even fitted a gun to an AI-powered autonomous drone. Or gunship.

AI is inherently conservative because it reinforces hierarchy. The AI-poor will have far less political, cultural, and personal leverage than the AI-rich.

Essentially it will have the same effects as money as a cultural and political practice - but much more so.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#15

Post by rootusrootus »

janalsncm wrote: post #7

I don’t understand why economic disruption and human obsolescence isn’t considered an existential risk. We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm. In that case, you don’t need killer robots in order to push humanity towards near-extinction. The invisible hand will smite them. But don’t worry, TED Talk attendee. The obsoletariat mo…

> We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm

If 99% of consumers no longer have money to spend, GDP will definitely not be maximized.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#16

Post by janalsncm »

rootusrootus wrote: post #15
janalsncm wrote: post #7

I don’t understand why economic disruption and human obsolescence isn’t considered an existential risk. We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm. In that case, you don’t need killer robots in order to push humanity towards near-extinction. The invisible hand will smite them. But don’t worry, TED Talk attendee. The obsoletariat mo…

> We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm If 99% of consumers no longer have money to spend, GDP will definitely not be maximized.

They don’t need to be consumer goods. $1000 spent on clothes is the same as $1000 spent on GPUs as far as GDP is concerned. Headless businesses swapping dollars around creates plenty of GDP with few to no people involved.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#17

Post by more_corn »

The distant future. Like five years. Self-aware (or a simulation thereof) AGI with self-directed motivation and the ability to self modify is barely a half step from ASI. And AGI could happen in the coming year. Five if you wanna be pessimistic. Never if you’re extraordinarily pessimistic but that’s looking unlikely. If it’s possible it’s possible now.

This isn’t the Yellowstone super volcano that might blow in the next billion years.

People who talk like this are idiotic at best.

Granted, the other concerns are real too but the accusation that the concern of existential risk is being used to hide the other known problems is dangerous in the extreme.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#18

Post by atq2119 »

more_corn wrote: post #17

The distant future. Like five years. Self-aware (or a simulation thereof) AGI with self-directed motivation and the ability to self modify is barely a half step from ASI. And AGI could happen in the coming year. Five if you wanna be pessimistic. Never if you’re extraordinarily pessimistic but that’s looking unlikely. If it’s possible it’s possible now. This isn’t the Yellowstone super volcano that might blow in the n…

I'm pretty sure you could have expressed your opinion without resorting to insults.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#19

Post by atq2119 »

__loam wrote: post #10
janalsncm wrote: post #7

I don’t understand why economic disruption and human obsolescence isn’t considered an existential risk. We could end up in a world where 99.99% of people are redundant and useless cost centers for our GDP maximizing economic paradigm. In that case, you don’t need killer robots in order to push humanity towards near-extinction. The invisible hand will smite them. But don’t worry, TED Talk attendee. The obsoletariat mo…

This is a problem with capitalism in general, not just with AI.

Reminds me of the point made by Ted Chiang that (roughly, from memory) when people express fear of technology, quite often what they really fear is capitalism and how it will use the technology.

This goes back all the way to the Luddites, who weren't actually anti-technology/progress. They were opposed to how its benefits were captured and by whom.

Re: The illusion of AI’s existential risk

#20

Post by JimtheCoder »

more_corn wrote: post #17

The distant future. Like five years. Self-aware (or a simulation thereof) AGI with self-directed motivation and the ability to self modify is barely a half step from ASI. And AGI could happen in the coming year. Five if you wanna be pessimistic. Never if you’re extraordinarily pessimistic but that’s looking unlikely. If it’s possible it’s possible now. This isn’t the Yellowstone super volcano that might blow in the n…

"And AGI could happen in the coming year."

"People who talk like this are idiotic at best."

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