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In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

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Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#251
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida also massively doctored their stats so I’m not sure how you can trust them.

I was in my wonderful homeland of Bulgaria. Every time a person died, the hospital always wrote down Covid, so they can get extra money from EU and the state. Car crash? Covid! Old age? Covid! AIDS? Covid! Drank bleach? Covid! F***ing Bulgarians living in year 3020.

I mean, unlike Florida, that's actually smart of them to do.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#252
post #111

> Whereas lockdowns in the Covid-19 case might have contributed to a lengthening of the crisis by delaying herd immunity The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread- that was obviously not happening. It was to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person.

>The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread... That claim is pretty inconsistent with the marketing slogans and messaging about the purpose of the lockdowns. Similarly, the vaccines turned out to be ineffective for inducing sterilizing immunity, but good for diminishing the severity of symptoms, which would also result in fewer sick people in hospitals. But again, the marketing and messaging around…

The problem with communicating is a substantial fraction of the US population does not have their mental receivers tuned to reality.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#253
post #111

> Whereas lockdowns in the Covid-19 case might have contributed to a lengthening of the crisis by delaying herd immunity The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread- that was obviously not happening. It was to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person.

At least in the American context, it’s far from clear the lockdowns reduced mortality [1]. Adjusting for age/health Florida had similar mortality to California’s. [1] https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/04/02/why-major-study-argue...

There's two problems I have with this answer.

First: we do not know that the lethality would have been without lockdowns. We didn't (often) see hospitals turning people away. The lockdowns succeeded in preventing that.

But more importantly, it's not fair to judge people based on the decisions they made in the past with the information they had then, using the information we have now.

Let's presume there was no difference in lethality. We did not know that at the time. But it was reasonable to believe it would be helpful and save lives.

Who is sitting there going "yeah but what if it doesn't save any more lives? Let's risk it because I've got a party planned next weekend".

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#254
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida also massively doctored their stats so I’m not sure how you can trust them.

I was in my wonderful homeland of Bulgaria. Every time a person died, the hospital always wrote down Covid, so they can get extra money from EU and the state. Car crash? Covid! Old age? Covid! AIDS? Covid! Drank bleach? Covid! F***ing Bulgarians living in year 3020.

Everyone parrots this. It’s a common belief in the UK too. I’ve never seen any actual evidence that this ever took place.

How do you know this? Did you just read it somewhere or is there some meat to it?

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#255
post #113
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can probably extend that to your family, maybe a bit further, but at a certain scale it just becomes impossible (and undesirable) because of individual variations in occupation, lifestyle, risk and infinitely many other factors. And because someone has keep the wheels of society turning. There was no lockdown for supermarket cashiers. I don't understand what point you tried to make. There were naturally essenti…

Lockdowns were sold to the people as something that would stop the spread. If you can get every infected person to infect less than one other person on average, you can stop the spread of an infectious disease completely. At least in theory. There are two variables here. How infectious the disease is and which percentage of the population can isolate themselves at home without society breaking down. If everybody stay…

> Lockdowns were sold to the people as something that would stop the spread. If you can get every infected person to infect less than one other person on average, you can stop the spread of an infectious disease completely. At least in theory.

No, I do not think so. The curve in "flatten the curve" was referred to the daily number of cases, and the impact it's growth had on saturating health care services. Lockdowns hindered the spread so that services could be able to respond to the daily inflow of new cases.

> If everybody stays home you don't have hospitals, you don't have electricity, nobody picks up the garbage, and people will go hungry.

This is a totally disingenuous and completely wrong strawman, and one that springs either from intentional ignorance or outright bad faith.

No, you don't lock people up and expect everyone to stay in house arrest. You are pretending that the whole concept of "essential workers" didn't existed, let alone was a central point of lockdowns. People were arguing if occupation X or Y should or should not be classified as an essential worker explicitly because that meant either the workers should or should not stay at home.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was in my wonderful homeland of Bulgaria. Every time a person died, the hospital always wrote down Covid, so they can get extra money from EU and the state. Car crash? Covid! Old age? Covid! AIDS? Covid! Drank bleach? Covid! F***ing Bulgarians living in year 3020.

Everyone parrots this. It’s a common belief in the UK too. I’ve never seen any actual evidence that this ever took place. How do you know this? Did you just read it somewhere or is there some meat to it?

We had people saying the same thing where i am in the states. Except that county mwdical examiner records are freely available online and did not reflect that in any way shape or form.

There were still, far more deaths from overdose and suicide than Complications of Covid-19.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything COVID demonstrated the opposite - governments were all too eager to get back to BAU despite the situation still being severe, resulting in notably high excess death rates.

I think they were tired of defending indefensible policies.

Politicians are experts at that surely. But in this case I'm not aware of a case where any epidemiology or other public health policy experts were telling governments lockdowns needed to be ended. The cynical side of me suggests that there were too many at high levels of government who felt that lockdowns impinged on their ability to enjoy the levels of power they were accustomed to, and so the opinions of those whose job it was to advise on such matters simply got overridden.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#258
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Can you name a single vaccine that prevents infection and transmission, as in "nobody with the vaccine gets sick or gets someone else sick"? I don't think such a vaccine exists, but I might be wrong.

Nothing is absolutely perfect, and polio vaccine has great results.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#259
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you name a single vaccine that prevents infection and transmission, as in "nobody with the vaccine gets sick or gets someone else sick"? I don't think such a vaccine exists, but I might be wrong.

Nothing is absolutely perfect, and polio vaccine has great results.

But they don't prevent infection nor transmission. What is the word to describe a proposed medical treatment that does not work?

Both the Covid vaccine and the vaccines you are saying had great results share this trait. You mentioned this negatively for the Covid vaccines. Why is it different for other ones?

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#260

China did actual lockdowns. The US? Not so much. Herd immunity? Never happened because infection isn't preventing reinfection with a different strain. If there had been actual, effective lockdowns early enough they might have worked but by March 2020 the cat was out of the bag. Japan's model of universal masking, testing, and outdoor interaction without lockdowns is the best model for the future.

"China did actual lockdowns." Yes, they did, and literally made prisoners out of their own people. Which had the unfortunate consequence of killing people for lack of care, food and social contact. "Herd immunity? Never happened because infection isn't preventing reinfection with a different strain." This is exactly wrong. Once you get covid you may contract a different strain, and if you are a normal healthy individ…

Exactly re China: my point is people should stop describing the US response as lockdowns because they literally never happened.

Re reinfection, good luck with that. Every time you catch covid you have a one in ten chance of long covid, and that's the current conservative estimate in meta analyses.

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