> Whereas lockdowns in the Covid-19 case might have contributed to a lengthening of the crisis by delaying herd immunity The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread- that was obviously not happening. It was to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person.
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In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
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Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#152> Whereas lockdowns in the Covid-19 case might have contributed to a lengthening of the crisis by delaying herd immunity The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread- that was obviously not happening. It was to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person.
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Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#153I think the lockdown concept as implemented in 2020 was a great illustration of the problem of scale. It's trivially true that if you as an individual avoid all contact with others during a flu season, you won't catch the flu. You can probably extend that to your family, maybe a bit further, but at a certain scale it just becomes impossible (and undesirable) because of individual variations in occupation, lifestyle,…
Similar things happened in Québec. There was a curfew, unless you had to walk the dog. You couldn't buy certain products, but the stores were as much as crowded. If it was that deadly and every knew someone who died, they wouldn't go outside.
It's not quite that simple. Some people might be forced to for work or similar. Which the law can provide protection against.
Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#154> Whereas lockdowns in the Covid-19 case might have contributed to a lengthening of the crisis by delaying herd immunity The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread- that was obviously not happening. It was to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person.
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Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#155Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah but there were and are nasty side effects to this, covering literally hundreds of millions or rather billions of people in some form. Missed social interaction is super important for child development, but how do you want to measure that, how many harm points do you assign to this versus some old or frail person dying. And look at ie India, delaying the height of infection didn't help them at all, estimated numb…
> We fucked up economy pretty badly and still seeing the results of it, Still? We've only just begun dealing with this fallout. It will be effecting us for a generation.
Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#157> Whereas lockdowns in the Covid-19 case might have contributed to a lengthening of the crisis by delaying herd immunity The point of the lockdown was not to entirely stop the spread- that was obviously not happening. It was to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person.
Additionally, hospitals had years to figure out a better way of expanding their ICU's for emergency use. They also tend to operate on lowest required beds to save costs and began to quickly get overwhelmed due to their unpreparedness.
"It allowed us to reduce the lethality of COVID-19 by having more resources per sick person. "
This is false and there's no data backing this claim up.
Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#158I think the lockdown concept as implemented in 2020 was a great illustration of the problem of scale. It's trivially true that if you as an individual avoid all contact with others during a flu season, you won't catch the flu. You can probably extend that to your family, maybe a bit further, but at a certain scale it just becomes impossible (and undesirable) because of individual variations in occupation, lifestyle,…
I think the lockdown concept as implemented in 2020 was a great illustration of the problem of scale. This is not a popular opinion but I think the fundamental mistake of lockdowns, at least in North America, was starting from a top-down approach instead of bottom-up. People are going to act like selfish assholes. We ordered them not to. I think instead of threats, we should have aligned their selfish interests with…
Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#159Herd immunity? Never happened because infection isn't preventing reinfection with a different strain.
If there had been actual, effective lockdowns early enough they might have worked but by March 2020 the cat was out of the bag. Japan's model of universal masking, testing, and outdoor interaction without lockdowns is the best model for the future.
Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lockdowns were sold to the people as something that would stop the spread. If you can get every infected person to infect less than one other person on average, you can stop the spread of an infectious disease completely. At least in theory. There are two variables here. How infectious the disease is and which percentage of the population can isolate themselves at home without society breaking down. If everybody stay…
Your very first sentence is wrong. It was to slow the spread. It was as the parent comment said - to slow the rate of hospitalization so the medical system wouldn't collapse and have needless excess death from lack of capacity.