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Britain Is a Developing Country

sambowman.co

91–100 of 238 posts

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#91
Britain is a failed state. It might be the first truly modern state to properly fail.

Many will blame Brexit, but the writing has been on the wall for decades. Most of my friends in Britain have been either biding their time for retirement, trying to go literally anywhere else, or in a deep sort of quiet depression, usually aided by alcohol. These are well to do, white collar workers.

It will be interesting to watch the country decline. Will we see the rise of extremists in Parliament? Will Parliament even matter? Will Britain become a proxy for reverse colonialism in the way that Italy has? Can the financial might of London persist, or will there be an exodus?

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#92
> My claim is that the UK is now a lot more like Poland than it is like the United States in terms of the kinds of growth it needs to do – driven by improved use of existing technology and inputs, and accumulation of capital, rather than driven primarily by technological advancement.

The author goes on to never support this thesis, and instead complains about British politics and that UK growth isn't quite as fast as the US.

The UK has a higher GDP per capita than France. They are in no way a "developing" country.

Does the UK need more tractors? Is there high unemployment (labor underutilized)? It does not seem so. What are the inputs and technology that the UK needs to improve?

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#93
I travelled the world and learned a long time ago that the world, as viewed through macroeconomic lenses, is pure delusion. GDP does not correlate with actual quality of life by any stretch of the imagination. The definition of "developed" versus "developing" is purely arbitrary. Life is highly context-dependent, i.e. there are plenty of places and people in developed countries who are much worse off than some places in "developing" countries (try comparing crime + cost of living in Baltimore to Lviv). Furthermore, the religion of "economic growth at all costs" is considered harmful. Wellbeing is not measurable in dollars. Even adjusted purchasing power fails to take into account cultural expectations of ownership (say, for example, necessity of owning a car).

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#94
post #46

[flagged]

Tired of this ridiculous attitude you see everywhere on the internet, "stopped reading at X" (which may actually be near or at the end of the article), "he said X therefore I can now casually discredit everything he says", "he said something factually incorrect therefore the whole article is wrong and I don't have to engage with it". And the arrogance of it too, as if in your head it's virtuous enough to be so closed…

Yea, but that comparison literally underpins the main point of the article (Britain becoming like Poland is bad). Been to Poland recently? It's... kinda nice!

He says in 10 years Britain (currently nice) = Poland (up and coming?) = Bangladesh (not as nice)

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#95
The US was first to deploy large-scale electrification, and settled on 110 V @ 50 Hz. Everyone who wasn't buying their equipment from the US saw some flaws and went for 230 +- 10 V @ 60 Hz. First movers often end up committing to a suboptimal first draft version.

The UK has a lot of these. The railways are notoriously expensive and inadequate because they're over a century old, and we're designed for a different society with different traffic patterns. The housing stock wasn't affected that much but The War, and many of the larger older houses were built with the assumption that they're would be servants living there too. Heavy industry was reliant on a lot of manual labour, and didn't mechanise when the opportunity arose.

The biggest problem is that democracy arose in the age of the humanities, when the sciences were idle curiosities for eccentrics. The revolutions in England - which negatively affected the rest of the archipelago - happened in the seventeenth century, too early for an urban middle class to have its say. The political establishment still has too many landowners - too much power is feels by the descendents of warlords. Most of the power is held by former members of Oxbridge debating societies, who've never had to do anything than throw ideas about. The Civil Service is run by a core of 'generalists' with humanities degrees, with subordinate groups of 'specialists' who can never rise to the top.

The same problem afflicts business: the country is run by people who are barely competent in arithmetic. US politicians are accused of insider trading and gerrymandering; British politicians don't have the skills needed to commit these crimes. Boris Johnson needed epidemiologists to explain percentages to him; the water companies have debts that are almost equal to the dividends they've paid out since privatisation.

The solution is not political, but rather economic. Many of these businesses can be undercut by the use of industry knowledge. Software startups are cheap to run if the founders have a deep understanding of the problem, can build much of the solution themselves, and know who their customers are. In manufacturing, the Midlands and the North have long histories and community cultures surrounding these industries, and are desperate for someone to bring the factories back.

Once technical people have money, the politicians can be bought. They're surprisingly cheap.

In a mathematical sense, the problem is solved. We just need to stop waiting for the lawyers and classical philologists to do technical work, and do it ourselves. We're not getting value out of our elites, so we should get better ones.

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#96
When people apply labels like these in this way, it always strikes me as thoroughly naive. Clicking through and seeing Poland get hit with the "developing" label basically confirms my suspicions that the author doesn't really know what they're talking about. This is the problem with focusing on single-dimensional abstract numbers which do a poor job of encapsulating complex ecosystems like an entire country. What's the water mark for a developed country? Iceland?

Much of world is currently in an economic contraction. Britain has its fair share of issues that need to be addressed. Pretending like it's anywhere close to places like Bangladesh or Cambodia is actually insane. That's not to say it can't fall to that level of destitution, or that it won't if action isn't taken. Brexit was always going to be a great economic shakeup, and it had the disastrous misfortune of occurring right before COVID drove a bulldozer through everybody's economy. I'm just certain that hyperbole like this ends up being harmful in the long-run, because people begin to associate the extant problems with overblown panic and then minimize and underestimate them.

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#97
There is certainly some meat to the argument, Britain is much poorer than it could be, but I think the GDP/salary comparisons and so on are completely tainted by financial speculation and manipulation, a decade of asset price inflation etc, and do not reflect fundamentals.

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#98

Growing up I assumed the UK was pretty rich. But then when you look at the stats, the UK is about as wealthy as Mississippi, one of the poorest states. Learning that people with college degrees in the UK make 25k GBP, and that is considered good, sure isn't that bad when GBP was worth 2x USD. But people are living in London for those salaries. The big expensive cities in the US, like NYC pay you much more to compensa…

> In the US I know people

“I know people” on such a upper-middle class board is bound to give a skewed picture if you compare your anecdotes with the median of whatever the other side is.

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under two years of employment, which is the majority nowadays, you can essentially be fired at will. The rest is true, but a absolutely major one that is missing in the UK is unemployment benefits. If you lose your job you basically have no income at all.

Unemployment benefits exist through UC. Most people who are unemployed, in practice, also claim a number of other benefits that substantially boost your income i.e. housing benefit (so your rent is paid), ESA (another £100/week)...this has created another set of issues where lots of people have become economically inactive rather than "unemployed"...great statistically but not so great for people...but yes, the welfa…

All those benefits require you to have less than £6,000 saved to be eligible, essentially ensuring you are ruined before kicking in.

Not only that, they are not available to visa holders, contrarily to most first world countries.

Lastly, the amount is still laughable. In Luxembourg I would have had 80% of my salary for a year, without conditions. The UK is not a first world country at all.

Re: Britain Is a Developing Country

#100
post #91

Britain is a failed state. It might be the first truly modern state to properly fail. Many will blame Brexit, but the writing has been on the wall for decades. Most of my friends in Britain have been either biding their time for retirement, trying to go literally anywhere else, or in a deep sort of quiet depression, usually aided by alcohol. These are well to do, white collar workers. It will be interesting to watch…

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