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The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

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Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#371

Post by nonethewiser »

sangnoir wrote: post #103
futureshock wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d like to point out that the open door policy to refugees came because Europe was trying to escape the demographic trap and the collapse of the social safety net. The hope was that young refugees would become net positive GDP contributors for decades, an idea borrowed from the US. If that has failed, it’s due to a failure of integration. Europe can actually be quite a racist place and in many ways the US is better…

> I’d like to point out that the open door policy to refugees came because Europe was trying to escape the demographic trap and the collapse of the social safety net. Also, the US was bombing a couple of Middle Eastern countries then: creating the said refugees who could reach Europe on foot and/or boat, but not the American mainland .

Which countries? I imagine they were already churning out refugees. Syria, for example.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#372

Post by cbsmith »

htfu wrote: post #177
dogma1138 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one uses PPP for measuring growth, GDP PPP can increase whilst your economy contracts. PPP isn’t a good measure for population’s wealth or quality of life especially for developed economies either. The economy of the US is still twice that of the EU and its global purchasing power has also pretty much doubled.

In 2008 the dollar was historically cheap (70% of current), now it's pretty expensive. This swing is the main driver of this whole thing and means that yes, PPP is superior for looking at growth. Not ideal, but much better. Cheap imports are great for consumers, but a currency losing 20% certainly doesn't mean its economy has magically contracted 20%. If anything a weakish currency stimulates internal economic activi…

I am shocked, shocked! that a headline comparing data from a seemingly arbitrary date with today might be cherry picking data.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#374

Post by Dylan16807 »

htfu wrote: post #237
dogma1138 wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? I’m replying to your statement: > This swing is the main driver of this whole thing and means that yes, PPP is superior for looking at growth. It is technically incorrect on every level. As GDP PPP fundamentally is unsuitable for calculating growth. The GDP of Greece pre crash was $355B today it’s $219B, it’s GDP PPP pre-crash was $341B today it’s $389B if you think the Greek economy grew over that period or that t…

I'm saying given the choices of "US economy doubled! Eurozone completely stagnant" (nominal) and "both grew, US somewhat more" (PPP), PPP is by far a more accurate model of what has actually transpired. That is all. What it may or may not say about Greece is utterly irrelevant because that's not what I was talking about.

If you're only saying it's better for this single ratio then that doesn't make it a more accurate model. Statistics can be closer on a single number by pure happenstance.

If you want to say it's a more accurate model then you need to defend it more broadly.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#375

Post by nonethewiser »

rafaelero wrote: post #170
jakewins wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t this assuming people stay in fixed “compartments” over their lifetime? My experience with social safety nets in EU is that they have been there when I’ve needed them - when I was a poor student, when I was sick — and now that I’m in a different life phase I pay that forward Your math makes sense at any given instant, but who is on what side changes if you view it over time

Take a look at net contribution to Danish welfare state over time. https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-e...

Danish are the highest contributors with Western immigrants close behind. Non western immigrants contribute a lot less and MENAPT (middle east, north africa, pakistan, and turkey) are doing even worse.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#376

Post by nonethewiser »

landemva wrote: post #184
rafaelero wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The evidence is math. Even if you have a flat rate and everyone in the population is equally benefitted with social services, there are 50% of people who are contributing less than they take and 50% who are contributing more than they take. That looks even worse when we relax the flax rate assumption (most countries have progressive taxation) and the amount of social benefits a given segment receives (poor people ten…

> 50% of people who are contributing less than they take Do you have a citation for that broad brush number for what they take?

I’m curious - what would a citation give you? An authority you may trust or distrust? Do you not understand the dynamic he outlined?

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#377

Post by Dylan16807 »

nonethewiser wrote: post #367
bjornasm wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There’s a reason millions more people from the EU live in the USA than the other way. Or why there’s a line 100s of millions long to come to the USA. That the EU has 100million more inhabitants, a history of relocating to the US or american culture and language being extremely present all over western society? >Nowhere is perfect but as a world traveler I’d say the USA is pretty great. "Nothing is like home" - news…

> a history of relocating to the US or american culture and language being extremely present all over western society? Well these just reinforce his point

This history suggests there was opportunity at one point, at least.

The culture/language being widespread doesn't say anything about the USA being better. How does that reinforce his point?

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#378

Post by nonethewiser »

bipop5000 wrote: post #246
rafaelero wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a developed country, low-skilled labor will be a net negative even if well integrated. That's the definition of being below the average of the recipient country.

are you assuming that all refugees entering the country are the bottom of the barrel?

Refugees tend to be low skill.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#380

Post by nonethewiser »

actionfromafar wrote: post #155
selectodude wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure Europe's massive energy crisis is an own goal caused by replacing all their energy generation with Russian natgas.

The own goal was buying the gas in the first place!

Is that not what he just said? Surely a prime example is Germany shutting down nuclear and and bypassing Ukraine as a Russian natural gas hub woth Nord Stream 2. Whoops.
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