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The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

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Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#121
post #37
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy doubling in size helps most people even if the resulting wealth is unevenly distributed. Goods, services, technologies, jobs, etc are good.

If it did US life expectancy wouldn't lower today than it was in 2008.

That’s mostly due to obesity, which is a consequence of the quantity and (flavor) quality of food getting better over time; a side effect of economic prosperity.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#122
post #96

Note this chart shows nominal dollars, not PPP-adjusted. The EU has certainly kept up with the US when looking at PPP GDP from 2008 to 2022: US grew from $14.8T to $25.5T EU grew from $14.3T to $24.3T What that means is that the prices of goods are inflated in the US compared to similar goods in the EU. That's all. Want something interesting? Look at China who grew from $10.0T to $30.3T over the same period (!) Sourc…

No one uses PPP for measuring growth, GDP PPP can increase whilst your economy contracts. PPP isn’t a good measure for population’s wealth or quality of life especially for developed economies either. The economy of the US is still twice that of the EU and its global purchasing power has also pretty much doubled.

"GDP PPP can increase whilst your economy contracts."

Still, if PPP GDP increases, with all else being equal (eg. stable population) it would imply the standard of living is increasing.

That is why PPP GDP captures a more accurate measure of the real world.

Said another way, what truly matters isn't "GDP growth", but changes in purchasing power/quality of life.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d like to point out that the open door policy to refugees came because Europe was trying to escape the demographic trap and the collapse of the social safety net. The hope was that young refugees would become net positive GDP contributors for decades, an idea borrowed from the US. If that has failed, it’s due to a failure of integration. Europe can actually be quite a racist place and in many ways the US is better…

> I’d like to point out that the open door policy to refugees came because Europe was trying to escape the demographic trap and the collapse of the social safety net. Also, the US was bombing a couple of Middle Eastern countries then: creating the said refugees who could reach Europe on foot and/or boat, but not the American mainland .

It’s true, but as cold hearted as it is, they didn’t have to let them in. Poland sure decided to pick and choose. The Greeks are not having it either.

One day there will be a massive wave of climate refugees rushing out of the uninhabitable zone and there will be US soldiers in the border guard towers with flamethrowers. The US will welcome immigrants when it suits them and roast them when it doesn’t.

As I am in Berlin right now I’ll remind us it wouldn’t be the first time people on top of a wall had kill on sight orders.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#124
post #95
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A rising tide obviously raises all ships, including the nation's poorest. To throw a wrench in that tired metaphor: a rising tide may raise all ships, but a fat lot of good that does to the poor, if it's only the well-of that can afford to buy a boat.

You're missing the point. Even the poor do better when there's more jobs available, more job mobility, more housing, more stores, etc. All things that are created by wealthy companies and individuals. Everyone, including our poorest, benefit from a growing economy. We just have to examine our average poverty-level person, and compare them to poverty-level persons of other nations to understand this point.

> You're missing the point.

No I'm not. I know exactly the point you were making. I'm disputing it.

The problem is the devil is in the details, and both the tired metaphor and your defense of it leave those details unspecified.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d like to point out that the open door policy to refugees came because Europe was trying to escape the demographic trap and the collapse of the social safety net. The hope was that young refugees would become net positive GDP contributors for decades, an idea borrowed from the US. If that has failed, it’s due to a failure of integration. Europe can actually be quite a racist place and in many ways the US is better…

In a developed country, low-skilled labor will be a net negative even if well integrated. That's the definition of being below the average of the recipient country.

Is there data on the average skill level of refugees?

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#126
post #96

Note this chart shows nominal dollars, not PPP-adjusted. The EU has certainly kept up with the US when looking at PPP GDP from 2008 to 2022: US grew from $14.8T to $25.5T EU grew from $14.3T to $24.3T What that means is that the prices of goods are inflated in the US compared to similar goods in the EU. That's all. Want something interesting? Look at China who grew from $10.0T to $30.3T over the same period (!) Sourc…

The WSJ article [1] from which this chart is derived does account for both inflation and purchasing power when comparing incomes.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/europeans-poorer-inflation-econ...

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#127
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it doesn't. Growth in the economy has to increase real wages, and real wages need to keep pace with housing, food, healthcare, etc increases in order to be meaningful. More jobs are only good if they actually provide a living wage.

> More jobs are only good if they actually provide a living wage. This is false if you spend even a few seconds thinking about it. Not all jobs are intended to "live" off of. Most of your entry-level jobs were supposed to be for highschool and college kids working part time. The problem is we have more and more people never graduating out of entry level positions, and today we have folks demanding those entry level p…

> The problem is we have more and more people never graduating out of entry level positions, and today we have folks demanding those entry level positions support a comfortable lifestyle.

That doesn’t sound right. To me it seems obvious the problem is these jobs used to provide more purchasing power than they do today. The increased grievance would be because of this drop in purchasing power, not because people are suddenly demanding a “comfortable” (<- loaded word) lifestyle out of the blue.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#128

German here. Austerity? Over-regulation? An oligopoly of tech-incompetent local enterprises? Just guessing here. As a student in 2007, I started being an avid follower of what Big Tech was doing and was flabbergasted that local tech enterprises didn't seem to notice or change anything. In CS at university they didn't teach programming (only as an aside) but all the funny theoretical OOP fluff that the community right…

Germany is an economic lion held back by its inability to digitize (even when it does it's half measure still attached to the past) and its development of deep relationship with untrustworthy countries (Russia being the prime example.) Trying to buy the 49 Euro Ticket can be done online but still requires approval by a human and an IBAN. That's my current favorite recent example of Germany making absolutely no sense relative to its peers.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one uses PPP for measuring growth, GDP PPP can increase whilst your economy contracts. PPP isn’t a good measure for population’s wealth or quality of life especially for developed economies either. The economy of the US is still twice that of the EU and its global purchasing power has also pretty much doubled.

We don't care about size of economy, we care about aspects of daily life of the average person.

PPP isn’t a good or any indicator of that either, Guyana has a higher GDP PPP per capita than France or Canada, Bulgaria is below Russia and Kazakhstan.

Re: The US economy and the EU were the same size in 2008, the US is now nearly 2X

#130
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a developed country, low-skilled labor will be a net negative even if well integrated. That's the definition of being below the average of the recipient country.

Evidence? Evidence against: https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/mariel-impact.pdf

The evidence is math. Even if you have a flat rate and everyone in the population is equally benefitted with social services, there are 50% of people who are contributing less than they take and 50% who are contributing more than they take. That looks even worse when we relax the flax rate assumption (most countries have progressive taxation) and the amount of social benefits a given segment receives (poor people tend to cost more). The only way to counteract that is if those low-skilled workers can generate more wealth (in the form of GDP and taxation) than they are consuming from public service, which of course will depend from country to country (the ones that have a higher social welfare will require higher output to be produced by the low-skilled immigrant to make the costs neutral). But then they won't be low-skilled anymore, they will be median or high-skilled.

Edit: the paper you linked mention the effect over wages, not over tax revenue and spending.

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