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Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

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Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#61
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah history has taught us mortgages can go way higher. Your part of the online crowd constantly trying to say the next French revolution is coming (been hearing that refrain since the 00s). Also when you buy a house - if you didnt factor in mortgage rates changing thats 95% on you. 6 % isnt even that high. Mortgage is too high offload and move elsewhere. People need to take some responsibility for their purchases.

hopefully you figure this out before it's too late...

[deleted]

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#62
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does this work in the American economy? Why does anyone buy RMBS at such low yields for 30 years with the capital risk that the money could come back to you if rates move against you?

US has Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that essentially buy all OK mortgages from the banks so long-term liabilities don't ruin banks and FED can create more reserves when needed.

> Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that essentially buy all OK mortgages from the banks so long-term liabilities don't ruin banks

FDMC/FNMA mostly buy up conforming loans and repackage them. In theory the bundling and government sponsored entity's (GSE) own equity would protect buyers of these repackaged bonds. In practice they did not and the government had to step in.

However, none of this protects against interest rates. If you take a bunch of 2 percent APY loans and bundle them, the resulting bonds are still 2 percent APY and everything seems good from GSE perspective. If rates rise to 7 percent, its just as easy to buy 7 percent rate conforming loans and bundle them into bonds paying 7 percent.

The problem OP brings up is one which the GSEs do not solve: if I own a 3 percent bond but the GSEs are selling 7 percent bonds, I have to sell mine for less than what the GSEs do to compete. The rule of thumb is the asset value drops one percent per APY point below market _per year of duration_. Knowing this, you would naturally shy very far away from mortgages because every percentage point is 30 percent of your delta. (It's a heuristic though, so its not like the example I gave actually trades at a negative price; performs better during "normal" sub 1pct changes.)

In practice people try to find arbitrage opportunities with ever more sophisticated instruments like interest rate swaps to "hedge the risk," but if markets are efficient this is a very small delta that could end up being a negative number. What we saw in 2008 was that the buyers were things like money market funds that prioritized retention of principal, but were dabbling in yield[1] enhancement strategies, given the whole "zero interest rate environment" thing.

[1]: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/The_2008_money_market_crisis

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well good luck with that but customers don't determine CEO pay.

Sure they do. If his real estate company closes a lower dollar volume of deals, because money that would’ve been going to sellers is now going to banks as interest, then its stock is likely to go down.

In that scenario, the bank's profits wouldn't change so why would that affect the stock and his pay?

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#64
post #38

Easy enough. Then as a seller, I'm lowering the buyer's fees to 0% , and then negotiating my seller's agent as 4%. There's no way, as a seller, that I'm going to willingly pay the buyer's real estate agent any money. That's the buyer's job, not mine.

Sold my last house and bought my current one FSBO, no agents. They really don’t do much. Hire a lawyer to help with the closing if you feel better doing that, it’ll still be cheaper than an agent.

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#65

One thing I see being discussed is how high rates will reduce competition for homes (therefore lower prices). This isn't necessarily true for 2 reasons: 1) High rates mean higher finance rates for development/redevelopment projects, forcing new inventory to be priced higher to be viable 2) Owners with locked in rates (most homeowners) have little incentive to trade up, and more likely to trade down (increased competi…

Owners with locked-in rates have little incentive to trade to anything else. You can't take the mortgage with you, so selling and then even buying a smaller house is going to lead to a higher payment in most cases.

What you will see is a lot more rental houses. When a lot of people move, they will just keep the old house and rent it out, because a huge portion of the value in the house is the mortgage itself.

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#66
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain this more? When I rented, I paid a flat rate. When rent increased, it only went up 10% at max. Now that I am a homeowner with a 30y fixed mortage, I have many unexpected jumps (thousands in home repairs, increasing property taxes and insurance). Unexpected jumps are way bigger as a home owner than they ever were as a renter. Oh, and my house value has dropped $100k since I bought it.

Many people live in rental markets where rent increases are more than 10%. At least if you own there is some upside at the end of it. And you can estimate how much your upkeep will rise over the years.

You can figure on property taxes and insurance gradually but steadily increasing. Maintenance is more variable but you tend to get a general sense for it over time (although you can have unexpected big bills).

In general, I live in quite an old house (1800s) and figure it probably costs me a good $15K/year in taxes/insurance/maintenance/other upkeep not to go into maintenance debt. Can be a lot more or somewhat less.

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure they do. If his real estate company closes a lower dollar volume of deals, because money that would’ve been going to sellers is now going to banks as interest, then its stock is likely to go down.

In that scenario, the bank's profits wouldn't change so why would that affect the stock and his pay?

He’s not a banker. He’s a real estate agent.

This is largely a zero-sum game: if the bank is taking more money out of the transaction, sellers (and their agents who work for a percentage of the selling price) will be taking less. It’s not like buyers can magically afford to pay the same principal as before plus new higher interest rates.

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#68

Meanwhile, real estate brokers fees in the US and Canada are ridiculous. I once made a bid on a property slightly under the asking price and the bid was accepted, then, upon reading the fine print it was said that the buyer was responsible for the real estate brokerage fee of the seller. So, I asked to see the amount they had agreed upon and this was so exorbitant that I ended up backing out of the deal (I had not si…

Sounds exactly like Amazon sellers putting high shipping fees hoping you're already bought in.

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does the process look like in Europe?

Usually an overpriced 30 year ARM (with a fixed period at beginning) and a restriction that you pay it off before retirement (so no 30 year mortgage if you're 45 for instance). Also a much tougher application process where people without "permanent" jobs are screwed. Of course, many, many people are on temporary contracts (because firing perm employees is hard). Possibly a stiff deposit req (I'd need a 20% deposit) a…

20% down and strict underwriting standards used to be the norm in the USA also.

I know a guy who just did a refinance with equity cash out for 30 years. He’s nearly 70. He clearly plans to die broke.

Re: Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates says RE/MAX chairman

#70
post #38

Easy enough. Then as a seller, I'm lowering the buyer's fees to 0% , and then negotiating my seller's agent as 4%. There's no way, as a seller, that I'm going to willingly pay the buyer's real estate agent any money. That's the buyer's job, not mine.

Sold my last house and bought my current one FSBO, no agents. They really don’t do much. Hire a lawyer to help with the closing if you feel better doing that, it’ll still be cheaper than an agent.

Maybe it's not well talked about enough, but I'm indirectly referring to https://www.realestatenews.com/2023/03/29/commissions-lawsui...

When you sell a home and you hire a realtor (sellers agent), the buyer will also likely have a realtor (buyers agent).

When the house is sold, it is "traditional" for 2.5% of the cost of the house to go to the seller's agent.... BUT ALSO 2.5% goes to the buyer's agent, from the seller's sale.

If the buyer doesn't have an agent, the seller's agent get 5%.

The $14 billion lawsuit is all about "why does the seller have to pay for the buyer's agent when they dont represent me?". And looking at that whole pile-o-shit even from a 10000 foot view shows really broken and terrible things.

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