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Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

nature.com

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Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#151

Post by blagie »

zanfr wrote: post #127
blagie wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be very surprised if it helped. There's pretty good evidence that long covid isn't caused by persistent virus. My own speculation is that it's autoimmune, simple due to having it seen resolved when people were vaccinated. However, "anecdote" is not the plural of "data," and it just as well be unrelated. There are wonky changes to organs during covid, which many doctors speculate are the root cause. In either case…

long covid is a viral persistence in some tissue

Why do you believe that?

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#152

Post by mathgeek »

Aachen wrote: post #130
mathgeek wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I think really matters for most people is not to find out whether they have covid or not, but whether they are infectious or not. While some folks are certainly still worried about spreading the virus, for most folks it's always been about whether a positive test requires them to restrict their movement or activities (e.g. whether or not one could fly on a plane in 2020-2022).

I think if you go back to polls and news from the time, "most folks" only caring about legal requirements is probably a projection of your opinion and direct contacts'. Pretty sure most people were actually concerned with not infecting others, within reason (which is a different level for everyone, but still)

It sounds like you might be conflating two different issues here (being why people were taking covid tests without any symptoms, and why people were doing the superset of actions that would mitigate spreading the virus). There certainly was some overlap where folks who needed to take them for their jobs also wanted to keep people safe, but in general do you believe there were a large number of folks who were or are taking covid tests while not showing symptoms and not being required to take the tests?

Additionally, you made a huge leap in assumptions about me that simply aren't true when you assumed what my opinion is/was and how that would project. Let's keep it away from getting personal like that?

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#153

Post by eightysixfour »

mike_hearn wrote: post #129
eightysixfour wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People's immune systems differ significantly and some are just stronger than others. Just a nit but stronger is a weird term to describe any functioning immune system. Some genetic trade-off that makes one immune system better suited to blocking COVID infection might make it worse at something else. > To be infected I have to be infected but you have to be susceptible. The COVID models basically ignored this and as…

In theory yes. In practice no. The models weren't driven by data in the way you're thinking. Go take a look at their source code if you don't believe me. COVID-Sim had ~150 parameters, virtually all of which were made up guesses. Of the rest they were computed from random things like news reports from Chinese media, friends who happened to work in hospitals, etc. When more data did become available the models were of…

> In theory yes. In practice no. The models weren't driven by data in the way you're thinking. Go take a look at their source code if you don't believe me. COVID-Sim had ~150 parameters, virtually all of which were made up guesses.

The parameter’s my region’s epidemiologists were using for their models was certainly being updated as new data became available. I even had a conversation with one of them on Reddit about it.

> Well, we don't really know why variants suddenly displaced each other so fast and so completely. It would appear that there's some kind of viral interference, in which you can't be infected with multiple respiratory viruses at once.

Eh? It is the same natural selection, competitive process at large scale and in the body.

You can be infected with multiple variants.

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#154

Post by blagie »

jnovek wrote: post #48
euix wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can long covid be considered post-viral fatigue? I remember being knocked out with Mononucleosis years ago and being tired out for over a month afterwards. Or is long Covid something entirely different?

A cursory google suggests that post-viral fatigue from COVID is expected to last a few weeks. Long COVID can last months; I know at least one person who still has long COVID symptoms from an infection that occurred in April 2020.

Long covid is generally defined as >4 weeks. There are subdefinitions for different lengths. However, a lot of long covid may be a form a post-viral fatigue. That doesn't discount it's importance, though. It's a lot more common than with a cold or flu.

Anecdotally, for people I know, it would take six weeks to half a year to resolve.

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#155

Post by mathgeek »

dev_tty01 wrote: post #142
mathgeek wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I think really matters for most people is not to find out whether they have covid or not, but whether they are infectious or not. While some folks are certainly still worried about spreading the virus, for most folks it's always been about whether a positive test requires them to restrict their movement or activities (e.g. whether or not one could fly on a plane in 2020-2022).

That may be true for most, but there are many of us who interact with at-risk people (elderly parents, an immune suppressed family member, etc.) and the daily concern is whether or not I might be infectious and potentially bring harm to someone else. I don't care if I have Covid if I can't spread it to someone else. Public service request: There are millions of Americans with compromised immune systems who are findin…

Agreed, and that's why I mentioned there are certainly some folks still concerned.

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#156

Post by jrmg »

jrmg wrote: post #136
BoxFour wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regrettably, there are individuals who exhibit evident symptoms yet would gladly travel and deceive on a simple questionnaire. That might explain why governments adopt a blanket rapid test approach irrespective of the potential for false positives (even given the potential, as the article alludes to, for false negatives).

You’re now expected just to mask up and travel. Recently just had this experience with a family member. Airline would not do anything at all. Travel agent (website) would only book a new flight, but not refund the old one - they said (probably truthfully) that the airline ties their hands. Travel insurance would only pay out if the trip was _cut short_ because of a COVID diagnosis (how does that even work?), or if th…

Actually, maybe I should amend that. “You’re now expected just to mask up and travel” is really “You’re now expected just to travel”. The considerate may mask up of their own volition - no one is enforcing it, and there are barely any recommendations.

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#157

Post by michael1999 »

mike_hearn wrote: post #150
gcanyon wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read several of your responses here, and thanks for the info, but I have to say, your tone comes off as "I know better and would have been more sensible if I were in charge." When you're in the heart of an epidemic that's going to kill millions, you err on the side of caution. Quarantining you at home, for example, makes sense when you're dealing with a deadly disease and you don't know enough to know you're not…

> Quarantining you at home, for example, makes sense when you're dealing with a deadly disease Intuitively yes, in reality no. It was known by March 2020 that quarantines had no effect because of the outcome of trying it on the Diamond Princess, a sealed environment where quarantine could be perfectly enforced. That didn't stop SARS-CoV-2 spreading between cabins and causing COVID apparently at random, i.e. it'd prop…

The Diamond Princess was sealed, but impossible to effectively quarantine since the cabins have shared air circulation. That was back when people were still hoping it wasn't airport.

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#159

Post by psychphysic »

Rapid COVID tests were never really about stopping spread or whatever else they claimed.

It was about looking like you were doing something while just getting back to work.

We had twice a week testing for over 18 months for work and it was obvious they were naff.

For each positive result there were 2-3 who seemed to miraculously be ill but negative around the same time.

People would be negative at breakfast and positive by dinner. Tomorrow? Negative again.

How could that ever stop a particularly contagious virus?

Re: Rapid Covid tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

#160

Post by eli »

psychphysic wrote: post #159

Rapid COVID tests were never really about stopping spread or whatever else they claimed. It was about looking like you were doing something while just getting back to work. We had twice a week testing for over 18 months for work and it was obvious they were naff. For each positive result there were 2-3 who seemed to miraculously be ill but negative around the same time. People would be negative at breakfast and posit…

It's true the tests had false negatives, but they didn't have many false positives.

So if you tested positive you knew to take steps to limit exposure to others. Not perfect but not worthless.

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