Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
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Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
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Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#2The point of Gladwell's book totally whooshed over the writer's head.
We know the robber-baron industrialists were born in a particular decade, but is that the cause of their success? Obviously not. Gladwell isn't making an argument about the particular reasons that they were lucky -- just observing that they were. They had good timing, and that translated into economic success in their time. Everything else is speculation.
Nobody knows what's going to be "lucky" tomorrow. Maybe this time around, nobody will get rich. Maybe this time, we're creating a new economic paradigm where wealth will be more equitably distributed. Maybe this time, 30-somethings will get rich, because they've had a decade head-start on the 20-somethings to save cash. Maybe this time, everyone will go bust. Maybe this time, risk-takers will get squashed by the market, and savers will be rewarded for their conservative moves. We don't know, and we can't know.
Trying to extrapolate useful information from Gladwell's observation is antithetical to his thesis -- once you've controlled for practice and skill, a lot of the "secret" of success boils down to dumb luck. You can't reproduce luck. The best you can do is work hard, practice a lot, and hope that someday, lightning will strike you too.
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#3Here is a question that's been beating at my brain lately and this post help catalyze my thoughts into text: how do we know what we're working on is worth it? In other words, how do we measure what we're doing? This question begs another set of questions, which is: What do you value? Do you value what you do? More often than not, I find money as a poor system indicator for determining the value of what people are doing.
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#4Here is a question that's been beating at my brain lately and this post help catalyze my thoughts into text: how do we know what we're working on is worth it? In other words, how do we measure what we're doing? This question begs another set of questions, which is: What do you value? Do you value what you do? More often than not, I find money as a poor system indicator for determining the value of what people are doi…
This is a deep question; I think the answer is a mix of economics and philosophy. Depending on how interested you are, consider maybe "History of Western Philosophy" by Bertrand Russell.
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#5Here is a question that's been beating at my brain lately and this post help catalyze my thoughts into text: how do we know what we're working on is worth it? In other words, how do we measure what we're doing? This question begs another set of questions, which is: What do you value? Do you value what you do? More often than not, I find money as a poor system indicator for determining the value of what people are doi…
Off the top of my head, there are four criteria I can think of that determine the value - to myself - of something I'm doing professionally: how much money it'll bring me, how much I'm learning, how much I'm enjoying it, and how beneficial it is to society as a whole.
If I'm not getting at least 2 out of 4, then it's probably not worth doing. Learning might be the only exception.
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#6The point of Gladwell's book totally whooshed over the writer's head. We know the robber-baron industrialists were born in a particular decade, but is that the cause of their success? Obviously not. Gladwell isn't making an argument about the particular reasons that they were lucky -- just observing that they were. They had good timing, and that translated into economic success in their time. Everything else is specu…
I dunno. I re-read the article after I read your comment, and I came to a different conclusion: It is very possible we are in one of those gaps in time where if you have put in your 10,000 hours, you can leverage them. You can be one of those lucky ones.
His point is, then, how do you know you aren't coming of age during a lucky time, when the old goes out the window? It is quite possible this is that "garage electronics" time when nobody has any money and some of us figure out unique ways to save and as a result, make millions.
You can bet, SOMEONE will. We are going to hear, in about 4-5 years, of someone down and out who "did it" during 2009 after they got laid off and were living in their parents' basement. Instead of shooting their employer, they proved everyone wrong and succeeded.
I am one of the jaded and cynical, however. This is just a "glass is half full" perspective.
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#7The point of Gladwell's book totally whooshed over the writer's head. We know the robber-baron industrialists were born in a particular decade, but is that the cause of their success? Obviously not. Gladwell isn't making an argument about the particular reasons that they were lucky -- just observing that they were. They had good timing, and that translated into economic success in their time. Everything else is specu…
I dunno. I re-read the article after I read your comment, and I came to a different conclusion: It is very possible we are in one of those gaps in time where if you have put in your 10,000 hours, you can leverage them. You can be one of those lucky ones. His point is, then, how do you know you aren't coming of age during a lucky time, when the old goes out the window? It is quite possible this is that "garage electro…
Yes indeed, we can be sure PR will guarantee that we hear about such a thing.... heck! We can even hope it actually happened!
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#8The point of Gladwell's book totally whooshed over the writer's head. We know the robber-baron industrialists were born in a particular decade, but is that the cause of their success? Obviously not. Gladwell isn't making an argument about the particular reasons that they were lucky -- just observing that they were. They had good timing, and that translated into economic success in their time. Everything else is specu…
I dunno. I re-read the article after I read your comment, and I came to a different conclusion: It is very possible we are in one of those gaps in time where if you have put in your 10,000 hours, you can leverage them. You can be one of those lucky ones. His point is, then, how do you know you aren't coming of age during a lucky time, when the old goes out the window? It is quite possible this is that "garage electro…
I think timr's point is that you'll only know AFTER the fact that you're lucky.
To try and extrapolate a single (and dubious) data point in history to the present time, and then conclude that this is the right time for 20 year olds to be lucky, is IMHO wildly misplaced optimism. You can't "time" luck... maybe it'll be the elderly who come out of this lucky...
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#9well all of the so-called robber-barons came out of an old economy (to them), but offered something NEW. if you think you are going to bust out of this recession with the startlingly novel idea of starting a website, you're actually trying to apply the rules of the old (as in ten years ago) economy to the new. the web is past the innovation stage and is moving into the economies-of-scale stage. if you don't think so, compare google's earnings to yours.
in any case its too early. lots of the carnage has yet to be unleashed...the reductions in consumer spending will likely only become obvious in the shopping season for 2009 as the job cuts of 2008 accelerate and are felt.
the blogger's thinking isn't new....the 30s was littered with traders who tried to play contrarian too early and got gutted. let it play out kids, this will take time. preserve capital.
Re: Timing: Why this crisis is our biggest break
#10Here is a question that's been beating at my brain lately and this post help catalyze my thoughts into text: how do we know what we're working on is worth it? In other words, how do we measure what we're doing? This question begs another set of questions, which is: What do you value? Do you value what you do? More often than not, I find money as a poor system indicator for determining the value of what people are doi…
how do we know what we're working on is worth it? In other words, how do we measure what we're doing?
you charge someone (an advertiser or customer) for attaching their name to or using your product/service and they agree???? we even have units to measure this, we call them dollars!!