Also, there’s the recurrent cycle of AI Summer and Winter. Each time, someone figures out a new piece of the AI puzzle, we get new tools that are useful but don’t deliver on the big hype, AI funding drops as we run out of ways to skin the new cat, we’re left with some useful tools that the world acclimates to until the cycle repeats.
Maybe the massive growth in computing resources speed up the seasons now, or have prolonged this one, but I don’t think we’re on the exponential part of the curve to AGI yet.