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Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

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Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#381
post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it has to do with the training regime and fixed-computation time nature of feedforward neural networks. Recurrent neural networks have the recursion as part of the training regime . GPT only has auto-regressive "recursion" as part of the inference runtime regime. I think Hofstadter is surprised that you can appear so intelligent without any recursion in the learning/training regime, with the added implication…

That seems to correspond to the "is or isn't it feed forward" debate going on here, so I guess I see where the confusion comes from (both for him and in terms of calling LLMs FF/not FF)

It still feels very clear to me, I feel like the people debating this have probably never written and trained an LLM.

Consider a simpler case: a small neural network that takes 2 numbers and adds them together, producing 1 number as output.

This network is very obviously feedforward, and probably very tiny with few layers.

Say I have a list of numbers [1, 2, 5] that I want to sum. If I send 1 and 2 through the network, get 3 as a result, then I send 3 and 5 through the network, and get a final answer of 8, my network has not suddenly become non-feedforward just because I fed the output back into it.

The key distinguishing factor between feedforward and non-feedforward is if the network itself loops back around and, at training time, it learns how to make use of this ability to pass data to itself to maintain some hidden context between passes.

There is no such learned hidden context in my addition example, and none in GPT.

---

There actually is a tiny caveat here: the RL fine-tuning process OpenAI has done on its models ("RLHF" & friends) actually does allow for a very, very small amount of information leakage between passes because you are rewarding whole responses, so the model can learn little patterns of what tokens in the beginning of the response led to certain tokens at the end of the response and reinforce those patterns.

The model could learn to encode small bits of "hidden" information in particular token choices that the human raters wouldn't notice. In this case, there is a (small but non-zero) amount of learned hidden context. But this is not what Hofstadter is talking about -- the non-RLHF'd base model is just as intelligent, just harder to use.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of people have been talking about that, from my memory?

Every time it comes up on the news it's some MIT doctor or VC telling us about how AI is going to replace us or try to take over the world.

I mean I guess the basic response here is that this is because the environment you pay attention to and consider noteworthy is the news, which is different from the environment I pay attention to and consider noteworthy.

I feel like these old Slate Star Codex posts are relevant here: https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/05/18/against-bravery-debate... https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/09/all-debates-are-braver...

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#383

> It's a very traumatic experience when some of your most core beliefs about the world start collapsing. And especially when you think that human beings are soon going to be eclipsed. It felt as if not only are my belief systems collapsing, but it feels as if the entire human race is going to be eclipsed and left in the dust soon. While I unfortunately am expecting some people to do terrible things with LLM, I feel l…

I agree. He talks about LLMs surpassing humans in what they can do, but LLMs can’t do anything, really. And I say this as someone who had a heart-to-heart chat with a ChatGPT persona that made me cry, earlier tonight. Manipulating language in a human-like way is powerful, and maybe Hofstadter as an author who makes a living writing down his deep and whimsical, creative thoughts could be replaced (I grew up reading GE…

> but LLMs can’t do anything, really

Do you think https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT et al will become more performant as models improve?

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#384
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You actually need someone with vision and track record of doing right predictions and placing right technology bets. Hofstadter does not exactly fit this description.

Why not? Serious question

What did he get right? While Hinton, LeCun, and others were laying the foundations of deep learning in the 80s, Hofstadter was writing expert systems in Lisp.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#385
post #93

This is something weird happening around Rationalism/X-Risk/AGI prognostications. The "Great Minds And Great Leaders" types are rushing to warn about the risks, as are a large number of people who spend a lot of time philosophizing. But the actual scientists on the ground -- the PhDs and engineers I work with every day and who have been in this field, at the bench, doing to work on the latest generation of generative…

My gut feeling is that they get status from these warnings. Or they subconsciously think they will. Like somehow they are as important as the scientists from the Manhatten project.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#386
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard good things about this book for years and nearly bought it a few times. Could never bring myself to commit the hundreds of hours of reading time. Every time I leaf through it it feels like it's just a collection of anecdotes about how amazing mathematics is. Like I need someone to remind me...

It was a transformative book for me when I first read it, but now when I leaf through it I feel a little underwhelmed; the ideas are just things I've thought about a million times now.

That's more or less what went through my mind when I saw the parts about computation. It would have been amazing as a primer when I first got interested in computers, especially if I had seen it in my youth or several decades ago. Now that I pretty much worked that out by myself it's a lot less more like dejá vu then an ahá moment.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Serious question

I suspect OP that your respnding to thinks something like … Hofstadter is not known to have made himself uber-rich therefore he’s not worth taking advice from or something along those lines

Enlighten me. What has his research agenda resulted in? What did Hofstadter get right that others did not?

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've come to learn that a lot of the rationalist crowd are really just fanfiction authors. That's fine - people should be able to do that - but I don't like how they're given the limelight on things that they generally have little expertise and hands-on knowledge with. I want to like them and want to have them engaged in discourse, but I find them so insufferable. Not to mention the sub-crowd of rationalists that is…

The "rationalists" are more like a strange AI cult than a scientific or philosophical program. (I always put "rationalist" in quotes when referring to this group of people, because based on the things these people believe, it's a total misnomer.) At this point they're not even really trying to hide it anymore, with their prophet, Eliezer Yudkowsky, wailing in the wilderness about the imminent end of humanity. We've s…

> I always put "rationalist" in quotes when referring to this group of people, because based on the things these people believe

I always found it amusing that Roko's Basilisk[1], which was incepted in the LessWrong forum, was just a roundabout way of adding eternal damnation of your "soul" (or rather, the recreation of your consciousness) to the already hilariously pseudo-religious way of treating a potential AGI.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk

(I know that Roko's Balisisk was not widely accepted and I don't want to paint all LessWrong users with the same brush here, but I still think it's a quaint example of where supposed "rationality" can take you.)

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#389
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Serious question

What did he get right? While Hinton, LeCun, and others were laying the foundations of deep learning in the 80s, Hofstadter was writing expert systems in Lisp.

Just for the record: Hinton was a Lisp user at some point in time. 1984 he got a Symbolics 3600. LeCun co-wrote Lush, a specialized Lisp for numerical computing. https://lush.sourceforge.net

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#390
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For those of us who don’t think you are an idiot (I don’t), could you maybe give us your insights and a history lesson? I am most intrigued, particularly regarding Oppenheimer and Einstein.

The tldr is that both of them urged Roosevelt to develop the weapon, and only later when the destructive potential of the bomb was obvious expressed regret. Einstein's 1938 letter to Roosevelt was the first step toward the Manhattan project. See https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/Resou... if you want to read more. So it's weird to say Einstein "warned us" about the x-risk of nuclear weapons prior…

Not at all. My point was that while Einstein said (warned) that nukes are possible and while they were being built in Los Alamos, the lower key physicists,academics and apparently people like you were saying that nuclear explosion is impossible. It was the quite laughable. And it's exactly the situation now, Agis are being built and laymen are in denial.
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