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Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

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Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#71
post #54

Hofstadter said, "Well, maybe as important as the wheel." If AI significantly surpasses humanity in cognitive ability, then I think it will have a much bigger impact than the wheel. (I loved GEB and DH's other writings.) LLMs have really improved a lot of the last two years and they have shown many unexpected capabilities. I am guessing that they will get some more good input (text mostly), a lot more compute, and al…

But self driving cars have a much lower accident rate than humans. How did you lose the bet?

A lower accident rate in the extremely controlled conditions where they're currently allowed to operate.

I'd be interested to see if anyone has done a comparison of human drivers vs autonomous cars that controls for driving conditions.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#72
post #51
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's a positive interaction, then what is your fear?

If @detourdog meant AR/VR in the snow crash / Metaverse sense, I guess the apprehension is similar to the discourse about "Leo Tolstoy on why people drink (2014)" a couple of days ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36526645 People tend to turn to substances / AR/VR / texting / phone calls / read books / ... to take the edge of confronting the sometimes harsh reality. Of course, there is no way in which AR/VR is…

I worry about it more the AI.

I also make no claim that it is worse or better. Maybe an easy example to examine the difference between

A Rave alone in your cubicle with everybody in the world vs. A Rave with a 1,000 people in abandoned waterfront warehouse. That Rave can simultaneously experience the sunrise before making their way back to where they belong.

They are very different and I'm sure with the right stimulants equally intense. Could be it's just nostalgia that makes me worry about it.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#73
post #54

Hofstadter said, "Well, maybe as important as the wheel." If AI significantly surpasses humanity in cognitive ability, then I think it will have a much bigger impact than the wheel. (I loved GEB and DH's other writings.) LLMs have really improved a lot of the last two years and they have shown many unexpected capabilities. I am guessing that they will get some more good input (text mostly), a lot more compute, and al…

It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#74
post #31

I have more fear of the people running the system than any AI. I also think that AR/VR is more scary than AI. My fear is how poorly rendered AR/VR can be more positive interaction than interactions with the people that surround the observer.

Might have completely missed something, but I thought AR/VR was (and still is) a solution looking for a problem. Have they finally stumbled into something people want to do with them, beyond games and porn?

For some of us, the hope is to use AR/VR for productivity.

It might sound mundane, but the hope is that one day slipping on a pair of glasses outperforms conventional monitor technology.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#75
Interesting to hear him say this:

> And I would never have thought that deep thinking could come out of a network that only goes in one direction, out of firing neurons in only one direction. And that doesn't make sense to me, but that just shows that I'm naive.

I think people maybe miss that LLM output does involve a ‘loop’ back - maybe even a ‘strange’ loop back, and I’m surprised to see Hofstadter himself fail to pick up on it.

When you run an LLM on a context and sample from its output, you take that sampled output it generated, update the context, and iterate. So the LLM is not just feeding one way - it’s taking its output, adding it to its input, and then going round again.

So I don’t think this implies what Hofstadter is saying about intelligence maybe being less complex than he thought.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#76
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AR will take off like crazy when they develop lightweight, clear goggles than can display color with a range of opacities. A million jobs are begging for HUDS that guide the worker, but the current equipment isn't there yet.

> A million jobs are begging for HUDS that guide the worker [..] I have a pretty dull, comfortable desk job and lack the imagination to come up with any. Can you name some? (I've been wrong before when I was skeptical when everyone was hyped about iPad, Deep Learning, etc. so please convince me about Apple Vision, Mark's metaverse, or google's glasses and paint what might be in 5 years.)

Oil drill worker. Industrial worker on the factory floor. A car mechanic. A surgeon…

Even an artist (make a sketch, blow it up a 100x using AR on a wall, trace paint to keep proportions right - heck the artist doesn’t even need to do it themselves, they could hire an associate to do it).

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody has been convinced to fly an airplane into a building by a language model either.

"This might be a risk" "No it's not, it hasn't materialized" Risk: Possibility of loss or injury Risks, definitionally, are things that have not happened yet.

Seeing how confidently and obtusely people dismiss the risks of AI makes me so much more fearful of what's to come. Human hubris knows no limits.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#78
post #62

I have more fear of the people running the system than any AI. I also think that AR/VR is more scary than AI. My fear is how poorly rendered AR/VR can be more positive interaction than interactions with the people that surround the observer.

As long as the AI is less generally intelligent than people, it makes sense to be more afraid of the people. Once the AI is more intelligent than the smartest people, it's more sensible to be most afraid of the AI.

The AI is already more intelligent than the smartest people in some senses - it has more knowledge in aggregate than any single person will ever have, but doesn't have the depth of the smartest people in a particular niche.

In other ways, it's smarter than the average person even in their niche, but can still make dumb mistakes that a 3 year old would work out fairly quickly.

Note that we say the same of humans. My friend always wins pub quizzes, but can barely add 2 and 2, and has the emotional intelligence of a rock. Is he "intelligent"? It's my problem with how we treat intelligence like it's a single sliding scale for everything.

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People overly impressed by LLMs haven't spent a lot of time trying to make them actually useful. When you do, you learn that they're talented mimics but still quite limited.

This also applies to humans.

Most humans can mimic but can also describe their first-hand experience of being scared or happy or heartbroken or feeling desire etc…

Re: Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning and AI risk

#80

I read Hofstadter's GEB and Tegmark's Our Mathematical Universe, and of course I developed a rather fond admiration of these brilliant minds. For some reason, both of them have developed a profound aversion and fear of what they consider an existential threat. I have a solid theoretical understanding of these systems, and I spent 15 years studying, building, and deploying them at scale and for diverse use cases. The…

I have been focused on ChatGPT and other generative AI also since last year. They are intelligent.

Hofstadter does seem to be possibly mistakenly assigning GPT-4 more animal characteristics than it really has, like a subjective stream of consciousness, but he is correct when he anticipates that these systems will shortly eclipse our intelligence.

No, GPT-4 does not have many characteristics of most animals, such as high bandwidth senses, detailed spatial-temporal world models, emotions, fast adaptation, survival instinct, etc. It isn't alive.

But that doesn't mean that it doesn't have intelligence.

We will continue to make these systems fully multimodal, more intelligent, more robust, much, much faster, and increasingly more animal-like.

Even with say another 30% improvement in the IQ and without any of the animalness, we must anticipate multimodal operations and vast increases in efficiency in the next 5-10 years for large models. When it can be operated continuously outputting and reasoning and acting at 50-100 times human speed and genius level, that is dangerous. Because it means that the only way for humans to compete is to deploy these models and let them make the decisions. Because interrupting them to figure out what the hell they are doing and try to direct them means your competitors race ahead the equivalent of weeks.

And researchers are focused on making more and more animal-like systems. This combined with hyperspeed and genius-level intelligence will definitely be dangerous.

Having said all of that, I also think that these technologies are the best hope that humanity has for significantly addressing our severe problems. But we will shortly be walking a fine line.

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