Live data from Hacker News

Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

ft.com

61–70 of 446 posts

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#61
post #35

The fact that not a single person wore the Vision Pro or showed off anything other than prerecorded/rendered videos during the keynote should have given everyone a clue about how far along in production it was. Everything about it gave off the vibe of marketing teams overhyping a product and engineering left to pick up the pieces afterwards, which is very unlike how Apple usually works.

They literally had hands on demos for journalists after the event...

With no reverse passthrough

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#62
post #5

Even if they only build 100,000 units, it should be enough to build hype and get developers onboard for their more affordable mass market 2nd gen device coming in 2025. For context, Oculus sold only 56,334 of their DK1 devkits.

Oculus were nobodies more or less back then and didn't have apple's supply chain expertise, and even still their devkits were only like $300 USD 10 years ago. I feel like the major cuts are because of lack of hype. I don't think anybody understands if there is a market for this, so nobody is sure how much money to put into developing for it. To me this feels like the first apple product in a long time without a compe…

Apple tends to be good at getting technology into people's hands and then iterating based on the use cases that emerge. The iPhone without being able to write apps for it seemed like a really bad idea at the time, but they were able to iterate quickly and get feedback that let them launch the app store more effectively.

Their Vision Pro just needs to get into enough company's hands for people to start exploring what markets might exist. The direction Apple will take things if it turns out that most of the demand is in the medical field will be a lot different than if the demand turns out to be in education. By growing where the demand is initially, they can lower the cost of entry which will make it possible to go into other fields where their is value but lower margins.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#63
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oculus were nobodies more or less back then and didn't have apple's supply chain expertise, and even still their devkits were only like $300 USD 10 years ago. I feel like the major cuts are because of lack of hype. I don't think anybody understands if there is a market for this, so nobody is sure how much money to put into developing for it. To me this feels like the first apple product in a long time without a compe…

Man you really hate this thing! Apple has the luxury of being patient, and the benefit of a developer ecosystem and bottomless funds. This release may or may not be huge (I don’t think it will), but the one after, or the one after that, probably will be. I agree Apple doesn’t know the use cases or customers that will be big for gen 3 in a few years. So what? They didn’t know that for the Watch or iPhone either. The m…

> the benefit of a developer ecosystem

Apple hates 3rd party developers, the ecosystem exists because there's money to be made off Apple users. If there's no users of an Apple device there will be no developers - and frankly, there's no incentive to even hack around on their devices.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#64
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They literally had hands on demos for journalists after the event...

Yet not a single one of them was allowed to even take a picture of themselves wearing one. Why was that?

Why is that significant?

This seems like exactly what Apple would do.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#65
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oculus were nobodies more or less back then and didn't have apple's supply chain expertise, and even still their devkits were only like $300 USD 10 years ago. I feel like the major cuts are because of lack of hype. I don't think anybody understands if there is a market for this, so nobody is sure how much money to put into developing for it. To me this feels like the first apple product in a long time without a compe…

I can think of so many use cases if it were good. If it were good, you could replace all Displays with it. Games, Movies, Remote Meetings etc. Oh and Porn. So much porn. The problem is the pricetag. It's 10x too expensive for mass adoption and 5x too expensive for developers to bother working for it.

I think 5x is closer for mass adoption. Oculus is selling their new ones starting at $500, and Apple could easily match that tech and more. They're probably have to give up gimmicks like the front eye screen, though, and they'd have to target gamers, which is a group they completely left out of the presentation.

Apple's name behind it, and advertising it as a work device as well as a gaming device, would let them steal a lot of the market.

And I say that as someone who doesn't currently own any Apple products.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#67
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> classically Apple strategy of 'let's just take the Next Gen technology, integrate it well, and beat everyone else to market.' If that were true, they’d long have an iPhone with a foldable screen, and would have shipped AR/VR glasses years ago. I don’t think that ever was their strategy. IMO, they figure out what a good product needs and build it as soon as technology allows. That always requires integrating technol…

Yes, they only beat people to market in the sense that once they release a product, everyone else realizes that's what the product should be and creates variations on it—so in hindsight it looks like Apple's take is the "first."

Which is weird because with the vision pro is not really any "first", they are incrementally doing a lot of things a bit better. My stupid guess is they probably worked for so long on this that they figured they have to ship something and see what sticks. It's cool that they do, of course.

But the use-cases displayed in the demo video are just weird, not what I expected apple to come up with.. you don't buy a ski-mask to make 3D photos of your kids, or buy a ski-mask to watch 2D facetime windows of conference call participants even if they are floating in mid-air instead of on your phone..

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#68
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oculus were nobodies more or less back then and didn't have apple's supply chain expertise, and even still their devkits were only like $300 USD 10 years ago. I feel like the major cuts are because of lack of hype. I don't think anybody understands if there is a market for this, so nobody is sure how much money to put into developing for it. To me this feels like the first apple product in a long time without a compe…

I can think of so many use cases if it were good. If it were good, you could replace all Displays with it. Games, Movies, Remote Meetings etc. Oh and Porn. So much porn. The problem is the pricetag. It's 10x too expensive for mass adoption and 5x too expensive for developers to bother working for it.

> If it were good, you could replace all Displays with it

Except when you want to show the display to multiple people at the same time.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#69
post #8

From the beginning, this product was a very classically Apple strategy of 'let's just take the Next Gen technology, integrate it well, and beat everyone else to market.' Similar to the iPhone 'winning' capacitive touch (or the iPod winning with Toshiba's mini HDD's), Apple plans to 'win' on SOTA hand tracking, camera-based full-color passthrough, face tracking, etc. These are all things that Meta (and the rest) have…

I don't know, at this point I would still count Apple as only talking about it, too? Thing isn't released, after all.

And you'd probably be surprised to know just how capable other offerings are, too. I'm a broken record, but the PS5 VR is quite impressive. Yes, you have to have a cable to hook up to the PS5, but not having a battery is an odd benefit. Not to mention the general cost difference. And my understanding is that it isn't that far ahead of the Meta offerings.

Re: Apple forced to make major cuts to Vision Pro headset production plans

#70
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why grossly misinformed comments like this always make it to the top in these threads. Yes, the headset exists and it works. People wore it after the keynote and wrote about the experience.

“Exists and works” is not Apple’s normal bar for a product launch. They routinely ship 100M units in a sales cycle.

My theory is they set a bunch of unattainable goals for the team. The deal was they would ship the product when these milestones were met.

Once the goals were met they had to ship the product despite uncertainty on how exactly it would be used.

They could tell it could be used but have no insight if it will be used.

Post reply on HN