China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says • Hacker News Board

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#171

Post by kjkjadksj » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 4:39 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #71

FreshStart wrote: post #55

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

> I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands

This is the ruse. The US is a global empire. Except, as history has shown, imperialism is somewhat unpopular to local populations. The US modern imperialism playbook is designed so the population really believes they are self governing themselves. The US doesn’t care who runs the day to day domestic government, so long as they have military bases, are the primary trading partner, and effectively direct this countries foreign and economic policies unilaterally. The fact you think the American empire is limited to a few vestigial takings from the pacific theater of wwii shows how effective this modern and silent hegemony really is.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#172

Post by ethbr0 » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 4:49 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #71

FreshStart wrote: post #55

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

An interesting observation is that China is following the exact same economic/international-relations path the US did.

1. Become a global economic superpower (US 1910s, 20s)

2. ??? (US 1930s, 40s)

3. Military-industrial complex emerges and captures politicians (US 1950s)

4. Political leaders then begin looking at military capabilities and questioning why it isn't being used for military interventionalism (US 1960s)

5. Military interventionalism shows its flaws through failed post-intervention nation-building, and decreases appetite for intervention (US 1970s, 80s, 90s)

6. Reaction to historical interventions triggers occasional knee-jerk interventions (US 00s, 10s)

In the US case, step 2 was WWII, which was somewhat unavoidable.

In the Chinese case, I think it remains to be seen how steps 2-4 go.

Absent an external war they're forced to become involved in, I could see step 2 being a popular consequence of whipping up nationalistic fervor to boost government support... and then that populist tail wagging the CCP dog and compelling military action when a crisis breaks out (e.g. Taiwanese independence declaration or naval incident in the South China sea).

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#173

Post by simonh » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 4:49 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #71

FreshStart wrote: post #55

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

It's a shame I can't reply to sand_castles directly.

Countries freely choosing to allow allies to put military bases on their territory, generally with wide public support such as in Germany, Japan, and many others, is hardly colonialism.

Every country that has joined NATO did so with public support, even massive public enthusiasm. Public support is actually a requirement to join.

Do Indians and Chinese somehow not count? Both have benefited staggeringly from the global trade system built and secured by the US and it's allies.

On building alliances "and which 2 countries is pushing to bring about that change ?"

Russia and China have a tiny number of genuine military allies at most. NK and Myanmar for China, a few 'stans and Belarus for Russia. All of them horrific brutal dictatorships in their own right. Everybody else anywhere near them loathes their guts, even Vietnam in the case of China, but are sometimes so dependent or weak there's not much they can do about it.

>You cannot just wash away mistakes made in the past, there will always be blow back.

Agreed. America's mistakes will continue to haunt it for decades to come.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#174

Post by bugglebeetle » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 4:51 PM UTC

kjkjadksj wrote: post #171

simonh wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

> I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands This is the ruse. The US is a global empire. Except, as history has shown, imperialism is somewhat unpopular to local populations. The US modern imperialism playbook is designed so the population really believes they are self governing themselves. The US doesn’t care who runs the day to day domestic government, so long as they have…

> The US doesn’t care who runs the day to day domestic government, so long as they have military bases, are the primary trading partner, and effectively direct this countries foreign and economic policies unilaterally.

This is more or less also how the Roman Empire operated.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#175

Post by simonh » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 4:51 PM UTC

kjkjadksj wrote: post #171

simonh wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

> I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands This is the ruse. The US is a global empire. Except, as history has shown, imperialism is somewhat unpopular to local populations. The US modern imperialism playbook is designed so the population really believes they are self governing themselves. The US doesn’t care who runs the day to day domestic government, so long as they have…

The actual desires and interests of actual citizens, even in vibrant democracies with changes of elected government and free speech, don't count. Nice.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#176

Post by kjkjadksj » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 4:55 PM UTC

nashashmi wrote: post #48

Why this is a problem? China’s foreign reserves is a result of the artificial peg introduced decades ago and loosened recently. It kept Chinese labor devalued. And to counter local inflation because of issuing too many Yuan, they kept interest rates high. So they accumulated surplus from years of high export to import ratio. This was a problem because they had a significant amount of our money. But they were also buy…

Them being leveraged in foreign currency would suggest they don’t want to flood the market and devalue this massive holding.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#177

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 5:00 PM UTC

superchroma wrote: post #124

biosboiii wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're seeking to upset the global money standard. The disturb the global standard, which happens to benefit the US greatly while hurting the rest of the world (especially the global south). Terrible! > They use (basically) slave labor, While it is true that China has a lot of manual labor and less worker rights than most western states, China isnt the sweatshop it used to be anymore. Nearly every "simple" labor i…

Like, great job, but you completely missed the point of the post by addressing the anecdotes. My point was western media prints uniformly negative stories about them and treats them like an enemy. The stories may be true, or not, or fair, or not. It's immaterial. They represent the battle for the hearts and minds of North America.

Western media prints uniformly negative stories about everyone. So at least in this regard, China is getting equal treatment (news sells; non-news does not sell).

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#178

Post by seanmcdirmid » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 5:04 PM UTC

bakuninsbart wrote: post #111

FreshStart wrote: post #55

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

This is just false, there is little evidence to suggest anything of the kind. China wants to secure its imperial borders (Tibet, Xinjiang) as a show of national pride, and it wants to ensure the security of its people by making sure the islands in front of the mainland can't be used to stage an attack and the SCS cannot be blockaded by the US. American senators and generals proudly proclaim they have the power to sta…

There is actually some truth to that. China has very poor access to the ocean, so they are pretty easy to blockade. But this is true even if they can successfully colonize the South China Sea. There are just way too many countries around that part of the world who aren’t in China’s corner, who are mostly afraid of China after being invaded by it for thousands of years.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#179

Post by simonh » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 5:05 PM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #172

simonh wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

An interesting observation is that China is following the exact same economic/international-relations path the US did. 1. Become a global economic superpower (US 1910s, 20s) 2. ??? (US 1930s, 40s) 3. Military-industrial complex emerges and captures politicians (US 1950s) 4. Political leaders then begin looking at military capabilities and questioning why it isn't being used for military interventionalism (US 1960s) 5…

>Military-industrial complex emerges and captures politicians (US 1950s)

So far China has completely avoided this. The military is very firmly under Party control.

>Military interventionalism shows its flaws through failed post-intervention nation-building

Germany, Japan and South Korea have been fantastic successes in nation building. Sure there have been failures too, most recently in Afghanistan.

For China, their annexation of Tibet is going fine as is their ethnic hegemonisation there and in other regions. North Korea is an embarrassment, but eh.

Dictatorships must continuously work to maintain their legitimacy. This means they need to justify denying freedoms and opportunities to their own population enjoyed in other nations. They can do that by painting foreign nations as being horrible failures but with international travel and many citizens having friends or family living in those nations, that's not viable long term.

You're quite right. That leaves external threats which require such measures, with the added bonus of painting internal dissatisfaction with the government as disloyalty and betrayal. So for Russia, utter nowheres like Ukraine and Georgia have to be dire threats to Russia's security, so intervention can stop them succeeding where Russia failed. The Taiwan situation has to be escalated, and territorial claims in the South China Sea pushed in order to manufacture tensions that justify internal repression.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#180

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 5:12 PM UTC

ithkuil wrote: post #68

vkou wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's certainly a problem! If it were a problem, Washington could get it resolved in a year. It's not a problem, because half the people bankrolling political campaigns are neck-deep in it! Their businesses are built on it! On cheap labour, on captive markets, on sources of third-world resources that are accessed through theft, violence, or corruption! And even if you aren't directly involved, our society will not f…

I see two kinds of people saying either: 1. The west is doing immoral things and hiding it. Let's talk about it and force people in charge to change things or change the people in charge! Or: 2. The west is doing immoral things. Let's root for these other guys who are also doing immoral things; eventually they will replace the west and then somebody will figure out how to stop them from doing the immoral things. I th…

3) west has done and continues to do things they deem immoral to stay ahead while use propaganda and coercion against others when they do the same things to catch up. Folks who fall for their own propaganda and clash with those that don't.