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China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

bloomberg.com

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Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#61

Post by candiodari »

woodruffw wrote: post #17
AngryData wrote: post #15

Holding on to cash reserves seems like a smart move for any government. People will applaud private companies and investors holding decent chunks of cash so they can invest into economic dips and crashes, and we have watched many countries borrow huge amounts to alleviate economic downturns, but a government holding money to either invest into or diminish an economic downturn is suppose to be bad? If the opposite hap…

The article is about undisclosed foreign reserves, not any foreign reserves. There’s general consensus among economists and political scientists that maintaining foreign reserves is both good for countries and for global peace, but that really only works if everybody knows you’re doing it[1]. In other words: it’s easier to think of untoward reasons for hiding foreign reserves than honest ones. That’s why there’s a st…

The article is about a foreign country loaning foreign currency to other foreign governments. That, most definitely, does not contribute to world peace or stability.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#62

Post by Nasrudith »

viraptor wrote: post #34
bugglebeetle wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They manipulate their currency. They interfere with foreign owned businesses. They steal IP. They're seeking to upset the global money standard. They entrap other nations with predatory loans for infrastructure. They trade with our other enemies and flaunt sanctions, etc, etc. Aside from the money standard and zero COVID bits, every part of this is true of the US. This conflict just boils down to “the hegemon doesn…

Can you provide the examples for US part in pervasive IP stealing, predatory infrastructure loans, trading with sanctioned countries? Not single issues (every country will have some examples here and there), but actually using those as long term strategies?

Look into earlier in the Industrial Revolution and you'll find plenty of IP thefts and outright defiance of UK laws of technology export controls and laws against emigration of skilled workers. The US went further than "being a fence" and had agents stealing technology as early as 1787. It isn't limited to industrial technology. Music piracy got so bad in the 19th century that Gilbert and Sullivan premiered "The Pirates of Penzance" in New York first to stop the issues of rampant unauthorized productions seen by "HMS Pinafore". When they were the underdog the US could politely be described as "guilty as sin".

I offer this more for the sake of enlightenment and amusement than anything else.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#63

Post by scotty79 »

candiodari wrote: post #61
woodruffw wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is about undisclosed foreign reserves, not any foreign reserves. There’s general consensus among economists and political scientists that maintaining foreign reserves is both good for countries and for global peace, but that really only works if everybody knows you’re doing it[1]. In other words: it’s easier to think of untoward reasons for hiding foreign reserves than honest ones. That’s why there’s a st…

The article is about a foreign country loaning foreign currency to other foreign governments. That, most definitely, does not contribute to world peace or stability.

> That, most definitely, does not contribute to world peace or stability.

Why not? Dependency makes peace more probable.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#64

Post by pySSK »

viraptor wrote: post #34
bugglebeetle wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They manipulate their currency. They interfere with foreign owned businesses. They steal IP. They're seeking to upset the global money standard. They entrap other nations with predatory loans for infrastructure. They trade with our other enemies and flaunt sanctions, etc, etc. Aside from the money standard and zero COVID bits, every part of this is true of the US. This conflict just boils down to “the hegemon doesn…

Can you provide the examples for US part in pervasive IP stealing, predatory infrastructure loans, trading with sanctioned countries? Not single issues (every country will have some examples here and there), but actually using those as long term strategies?

Trading with sanctioned countries: happens all the time in support of various US wars. Too many examples during the Iraq War, but Iran Contra Scandal is a big one as the US President was directly involved.

Predatory infrastructure loans: that's what USAID, IMF and World Bank are basically set up to do.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#65

Post by scotty79 »

isykt wrote: post #8
vkou wrote: post #2

So what? TFA keeps repeating that this is bad, but fails to explain why. Is countries actually having money a problem now?

Which country’s values do you prefer influencing the developing world: China’s, or the United States’?

That's a very charitable interpretation.

It's rather, which would you rather the developing world be exploited by, US or China?

We have pretty extensive track record of developing countries being exploited by western economies. And it aint pretty. So the best case you can make for the US is thay familiar devil is better because it's familiar.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#66

Post by pySSK »

FreshStart wrote: post #55

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

> The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite friendly an empire.

[[Citation Needed]]

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#67

Post by kevingadd »

cbilson wrote: post #57
Simorgh wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is an issue of perspective. I know someone who quite recently died of Covid. There is no longer a pandemic, but the virus is still deadly. Their concern is justified. Economically, the US is critically dependent on China for facilitating consumer demand. The US cannot afford an adversary in China. Ethically, the US is not offering a compelling framework or alternative that alleviates the issues you raise…

If the CCP were so concerned with COVID why did they have a victory concert in August 2020[1]? Obviously the virus is still deadly, but it seems at least inconsistent for CCP COVID policy to be “we did it!” in August 2020, then lock downs in 2022. Regarding “lifting people out of poverty”, did hundreds of millions of people’s hard work have anything to do with lifting _themselves_ out of poverty or does the CCP get a…

I can understand this being hard to comprehend, but if China actually effectively deployed a zero covid policy initially - it's up to you whether you think the reports to this effect are true or not - then a mask-less concert is in fact pretty safe as long as you're not allowing foreigners to bring COVID into the country.

Of course the moment you let Americans in to your country, you've given up your battle against COVID since we decided to just let it rip.

China's not the only country that tried a zero COVID policy and for a while it was working in other places too thanks to management techniques, travel restrictions, quarantines, etc. (New Zealand is one, iirc) But when one of the biggest and most powerful countries in the world decides to just give up on the fight nobody else is going to win.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#68

Post by ithkuil »

vkou wrote: post #45
mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why is this all of a sudden a problem when China does it, but not when our firms do this in their off-shore sweatshops It's certainly a problem! But the only thing we can really do about it is pass laws.

> It's certainly a problem! If it were a problem, Washington could get it resolved in a year. It's not a problem, because half the people bankrolling political campaigns are neck-deep in it! Their businesses are built on it! On cheap labour, on captive markets, on sources of third-world resources that are accessed through theft, violence, or corruption! And even if you aren't directly involved, our society will not f…

I see two kinds of people saying either:

1. The west is doing immoral things and hiding it. Let's talk about it and force people in charge to change things or change the people in charge!

Or:

2. The west is doing immoral things. Let's root for these other guys who are also doing immoral things; eventually they will replace the west and then somebody will figure out how to stop them from doing the immoral things.

I think (2) is predicated on the fact that the west wrong doings are so old and irreparable and so they can be only washed away through a complete blank slate rewrite of the geopolitical order.

I think this is a relatively "natural" effect of our human psychology. We have an innate sense of "punishing" people and we often find ways to rationalize and explain why they should be punished. However these instincts are ill suited to handle geopolitics because there are many more people involved that the "tribe" size of our natural selection environment and also because the time scale of the changes is usually much longer than what people are used to in their day to day relationships.

I think logic (2) is flawed because once the new power structure is formed it will be hard to change exactly like (1) or even worse. Furthermore it will have done immoral things for quite some time by then because changes to geopolitical power balances will take a long time to actuate and thus they new power will also become "irreparable" and the only thing left to do will be to root for the next "underdog".

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#69

Post by denton-scratch »

superchroma wrote: post #22
veqq wrote: post #13

These currency reserves largely represent loans China issued abroad, which have been paid off (or are in the process of being served). Similar to Eurodollars in the past yielding outsized interest rates, increasing demand and thus dollar outflows, this shows a (perhaps?) unrecognized accumulation in China, which may very well either allow them to essentially print their own dollars or mean that they already have been…

I mean it's the gigantic elephant in the room. The reported narratives have aligned over the years as if they were our enemy. Here are some: Economically, they're an adversary; they undercut western manufacturing and all our manufacturing went there. They manipulate their currency. They interfere with foreign owned businesses. They steal IP. They're seeking to upset the global money standard. They entrap other nation…

> trying to annexe land and sea that definitively isn't theirs (Tibet, "South China" Sea)

The matter of Tibet is complex, and I think "definitively" is handwaving away a lot of Tibetan history.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#70

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

superchroma wrote: post #22
veqq wrote: post #13

These currency reserves largely represent loans China issued abroad, which have been paid off (or are in the process of being served). Similar to Eurodollars in the past yielding outsized interest rates, increasing demand and thus dollar outflows, this shows a (perhaps?) unrecognized accumulation in China, which may very well either allow them to essentially print their own dollars or mean that they already have been…

I mean it's the gigantic elephant in the room. The reported narratives have aligned over the years as if they were our enemy. Here are some: Economically, they're an adversary; they undercut western manufacturing and all our manufacturing went there. They manipulate their currency. They interfere with foreign owned businesses. They steal IP. They're seeking to upset the global money standard. They entrap other nation…

I quite like how the average American looks at China (not always fairly by the way - some of what you accuse China of doing is actually illegal in China) while being completely unable to hold a mirror to how their own economy works. It’s kind of entertaining to see a bully complains that there now is another bully in town.
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