71–80 of 85 posts
AGI by 2040 huh. I bet it won’t happen by 2100, and I’m young enough that I can look back on this at 2040 and see how wrong/ correct I was. Future me, don’t forget!
Depending on who you ask, we will never have it or we have it already. We never had a perfect definition of AGI, but I feel like now the definition has become so murky to be useless.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are several AI categories on the track record page; make sure you're not just selecting the one or you'll miss a lot. There's a careful analysis of the overall track record on AI questions here: https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/16708/exploring-metaculu... The short version is that the Brier score is much better than .25 for AI questions, and the weighted Metaculus Prediction is more accurate still.
Can I see the list of questions used in this analysis somewhere? Is it literally just the set of questions I see when I filter for "Resolved" and "Artificial Intelligence"? My impression from browsing that set of questions is that it's a mix of pretty trivial things like "how expensive will chatGPT be?" or "when will Google release Bard?". There are very few questions in the bunch I'd even consider interesting, let a…
Nowhere do they define "AGI". I guarantee that is a big reason why the predictions have so much variance. For many people, what GPT-4 does qualified as AGI -- up until GPT-4 came out and then everyone seemed to decide that AGI meant ASI. I am guessing for many people answering this poll it means "a full emulation of a person". Or maybe it had to be "alive". The thing that irritates me so much is that there is this la…
When humans play (video)games against an AI they will usually find some pattern of behavior that the AI falls into. Once they find it, they can continuously take advantage of this pattern of behavior and abuse it for great success. I think current LLMs still fall into this category. But I think they might be able to handle this relatively well quite soon.
Its depressing to go over all this ultra-shallow chit-chat that has short-circuited any intelligent discussion about the role and trajectory of information technology (let alone any more serious problem or opportunity of the current times). Talking about AI (and AGI) as if its some xenomorph lurking somewhere in silicon, waiting for its inevitable escape from its human prison. AI will not bootstrap itself with some e…
Do you think the human brain has bootstrapped itself with an emergent property in a way that is impossible in silicon?
Considering we've never seen a brain only made from silicon do much, then it's likely not the right stuff.
Maybe we can brute force things that act like a brain in silicon, but considering that a bee and an ant are intelligent, communicate and solve problems in groups and run on almost zero energy compared to an entire datacenter, you have to admit, something isn't quite there.
I know this is a sensitive topic for many, so I'm not being hostile, I genuinely mean it though.
In my honest opinion, if ants or bees had thumbs and hands, they'd evolve to do some amazing things.
AGI by 2040 huh. I bet it won’t happen by 2100, and I’m young enough that I can look back on this at 2040 and see how wrong/ correct I was. Future me, don’t forget!
Depending on who you ask, we will never have it or we have it already. We never had a perfect definition of AGI, but I feel like now the definition has become so murky to be useless.
and I know this sounds wild to some, even unthinkable, but I can't imagine people sitting around in 2000 years talking about "computers".
We might even get past the idea of needing "computing" as we find new ways of achieving our goals. I mean who knows, maybe we'll learn to augment our own intelligence through biohacking?
Right now it feels like AI is the actual be all and end all of everything, but I like to experiment with think about what's over the horizon.
Its depressing to go over all this ultra-shallow chit-chat that has short-circuited any intelligent discussion about the role and trajectory of information technology (let alone any more serious problem or opportunity of the current times). Talking about AI (and AGI) as if its some xenomorph lurking somewhere in silicon, waiting for its inevitable escape from its human prison. AI will not bootstrap itself with some e…
Do you think the human brain has bootstrapped itself with an emergent property in a way that is impossible in silicon?
The messianic prophecy of the imminence of the in-silico birth of the AGI is based on extreme, simplistic mental models: the brain is a computer, everything is input and output, there is some neural net black box "learning" inside etc.
The stance reminds me of the arrogant ignorance displayed by Laplace's demon [1]. Laplace postulated that if someone (the demon) knows the precise location and momentum of every atom in the universe, their past and future values for any given time are entailed - they can be calculated from the laws of classical mechanics.
Alas, he completely missed quantum mechanics, the very basis of how the universe works. It was discovered a hundred years after he died.
In fact Laplace's overconfidence sin is probably orders of magnitude smaller than what the breathless AGI enthusiasts currently commit: Classical mechanics and quantum mechanics share some formal mathematical similarities [2].
It feels very unlikely that anything resembling AGI will share much mathematical form with current machine learning models. The evolutionary, in-principle agnostic and general purpose "wiring" of the human brain, assuming it can abstracted somehow, lives on a different mathematical plane.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace%27s_demon
[2] In fact the process of conjuring up the formal apparatus required for quantum mechanics is one of the most dramatic examples of the versatile abstraction powers of the human brain.
Its depressing to go over all this ultra-shallow chit-chat that has short-circuited any intelligent discussion about the role and trajectory of information technology (let alone any more serious problem or opportunity of the current times). Talking about AI (and AGI) as if its some xenomorph lurking somewhere in silicon, waiting for its inevitable escape from its human prison. AI will not bootstrap itself with some e…
Counterpoint 1: > Talking about AI (and AGI) as if its some xenomorph lurking somewhere in silicon, waiting for its inevitable escape from its human prison. > AI will not bootstrap itself with some emergent property if somebody spends gazillions of dollars and Watts to estimate petazillions of parameters. Not right now, though recent breakthroughs look worryingly close. But the problem isn't AGI creating itself ex ni…
"Out-of-brain" information technology is something that started long time ago with the agricultural revolution and the first cuneiform tablets. It has been shaping our societies ever since. Once the automation inherent in these constructs is baked-in it doesn't require over-complex black box models to create complete havoc.
[1] Defined as the institutionalization of intermediating information technology artifacts that humans cannot opt-out from if they want to be part of society.
I am of the opinion that this AI/ChatGPT, or atleast the current form of it, is just another VC money shuffling business which has no long term real world consequence. Like VR and crypto, while being great technical experiment but eventually they have not reached any kind of sufficient adoption. iPhone and Bitcoin came out at basically the same time and see how many people have iPhone and how many even know about bit…
I am of the opinion that this AI/ChatGPT, or atleast the current form of it, is just another VC money shuffling business which has no long term real world consequence. Like VR and crypto, while being great technical experiment but eventually they have not reached any kind of sufficient adoption. iPhone and Bitcoin came out at basically the same time and see how many people have iPhone and how many even know about bit…
I don't know what you are smoking if you think ChatGPT doesn't have real world consequence.