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Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

cnn.com

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Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#61

Post by GiorgioG »

bigyikes wrote: post #49
gobins wrote: post #33

It's interesting that while other companies are doubling down on electric vehicles, Toyota has come out and said the opposite after being one of the first companies to start.

Electric cars becoming dominant seems like an inevitability to me, and it looks like many auto makers agree. It’s “just” a matter of battery costs, battery density, energy costs, and volume. What does Toyota see that we’re missing? I ask this as someone who just bought an ICE vehicle, but only because there were no electric vehicles in my market segment.

As someone who isn't sold on EVs (as they exist today), I just don't how EVs will wind up being better economically. Energy costs will wind up going up as demand on the grid strains our infrastructure's ability to supply enough electricity as most folks switches over to EVs. Worse, costs for all electricity (home, industry, etc) will go up as demand surges. My ICE vehicle won't lose range like an EV's will over time. Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced.

From a practical perspective, I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard. If there's an extended power outage and I have an EV - I have to wait for the grid to come back up in order to drive my EV. Backup home batteries are still very expensive. Even at half their current prices they're prohibitive (compared to say an emergency gas generator).

Will these problems be solved? Probably, just not in the next few years. My wife just got a new car and we chose an ICE. I will probably replace my 2016 ICE vehicle in the next 5-10 years and I think I'll wind up with another ICE.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#62

Post by [deleted] »

SamuelAdams wrote: post #48
scop wrote: post #42

I was speaking with the owner of an auto shop a few months back and he made an interesting point I hadn’t heard re Ford: whereas Tesla is eating new customers, Ford and other legacy automakers are having to eat their own customers…which can lead to some serious business complexity!

In the business world we call this cannibalizing sales. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannibalization_(marketing)?wp...

[deleted]

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#63

Post by hinkley »

stcredzero wrote: post #58
cubefox wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is: Combustion motors are amazingly complex and highly optimized beasts, while electric motors are dead simple. There isn't much to improve. So there are not many people working on electric motors.

electric motors are dead simple. There isn't much to improve. But the entire system of the vehicle, and the way we use vehicles, and the way those form factors affect society and people's lives are very, very complex. So basically, the shift in technology is going to enable changes and improvements in all of those ways. Also, look at what Tesla, Lucid, and even Volkswagen have been able to achieve in terms of innovat…

I think you will find that there is a certain tolerance for complex systems, and when one part of the system gets simpler, you have to scramble as a user to claw back that reduction for yourself. Only some companies pay that dividend entirely to the user. Some keep it for themselves, and others split it with you.

Which is to say, if the drivetrain gets simpler, the rest of the car will become more complex. Some of that could be good, like more/better heat pumps, but some of it will be complecting other parts of the car.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#64

Post by CharlesW »

scop wrote: post #42

I was speaking with the owner of an auto shop a few months back and he made an interesting point I hadn’t heard re Ford: whereas Tesla is eating new customers, Ford and other legacy automakers are having to eat their own customers…which can lead to some serious business complexity!

The Innovator's Dilemma is a classic book on this, well worth a read: https://claytonchristensen.com/books/the-innovators-dilemma/

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#65

Post by rascul »

sokoloff wrote: post #32
starttoaster wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could be mistaken, but I think they're mostly not counting a procedure that basically amounts to loosening up a bolt that makes oil come out the bottom, tightening it back up again, and then adding new oil from the top side. I think the kind of maintenance they're thinking of is more like "replace the serpentine belt."

Many serpentine belts are a sub-10-minute job. Put a wrench on the tensioner, take the tension off it, slip old belt off, put the new belt on, release the wrench tension. It’s literally faster than any oil change (engine, diff, or transfer case).

Can change the serpentine belt while waiting for the oil to drain.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#66

Post by kmeisthax »

stcroixx wrote: post #34
criddell wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how the switch to electric is going to impact Ford dealers? From what I've read they need to (re)train their mechanics and buy a bunch of new equipment and then also deal with the fact that electric vehicles require less maintenance.

In my circles, dealers would always be the absolute last resort option for having any maintenance done due to their reputation of inflating prices and doing crappy work. Not sure if EV manufacturers are attempting to force consumers to have all their work done by dealers. If so, I’ll keep waiting.

So, part of the reason why EVs have struggled to gain a market is specifically because the dealers can't make as much money on the maintenance side. All the stuff about "range anxiety" and "charging infrastructure" was a sideshow. You already have a garage that can deliver 120VAC at 15A to your car and that is enough charging infrastructure for everything but road trips. Dealers wanted to sell cars with Sony timers[0] in them, and internal combustion means a lot of metal parts and tiny explosions that can go wear out and go wrong. EVs do not have those kinds of problems.

Tesla doesn't have dealers, but they've been the vanguard of bringing Apple-style "serialized for your safety[1]" parts to the automotive market. Almost every part is paired or calibrated to the ECU and the car won't start or won't run well without their proprietary software and signing key involved. And since Musk embarrassed the rest of the car industry into making EVs, they're copying everything about Tesla, including the bad bits[2]. As a result, repair-hostile design is ubiquitous in EVs.

Actually, I've heard it might be back-contaminating ICE cars, too - you might just never buy a new vehicle ever again at this rate.

[0] Japanese urban legend / slang term for "thing in an electronic device designed to break when the warranty ends"

[1] against unauthorized repair shops

[2] Most established firms tend to be vertically disintegrated channel traders - i.e. they buy other people's components, put it together, and sell it on as a finished product. Any major product change is a process of herding cats, dogs, and guinea pigs all to the same spot and hoping they don't harm each other in the process. This results in an extremely conservative design discipline. For example:

- GM tried selling electric vehicles in the 90s and shitcanned them because dealers weren't going to sell them.

- PC vendors weren't going to bother selling laptops with SSDs in them until people started switching to Apple because "it's so fast because it boots in like 5 seconds."

Of course, once a Tesla or an Apple changes market expectations, then it's easy to copy them, because they've already de-risked the project.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#67

Post by mike50 »

stcredzero wrote: post #58
cubefox wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is: Combustion motors are amazingly complex and highly optimized beasts, while electric motors are dead simple. There isn't much to improve. So there are not many people working on electric motors.

electric motors are dead simple. There isn't much to improve. But the entire system of the vehicle, and the way we use vehicles, and the way those form factors affect society and people's lives are very, very complex. So basically, the shift in technology is going to enable changes and improvements in all of those ways. Also, look at what Tesla, Lucid, and even Volkswagen have been able to achieve in terms of innovat…

Those improvements are the transfer of existing motor innovation to cars or improvements to supporting technology.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#68

Post by themagician »

stcroixx wrote: post #34
criddell wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how the switch to electric is going to impact Ford dealers? From what I've read they need to (re)train their mechanics and buy a bunch of new equipment and then also deal with the fact that electric vehicles require less maintenance.

In my circles, dealers would always be the absolute last resort option for having any maintenance done due to their reputation of inflating prices and doing crappy work. Not sure if EV manufacturers are attempting to force consumers to have all their work done by dealers. If so, I’ll keep waiting.

In my experience, both EVs and (many/most) smaller volume high efficiency vehicles are not easy for 3rd parties to do service on. An inline-6/V6/V8 is relatively straightforward and there are great 3rd party mechanics everywhere. Going to a dealer for these kinds of vehicles is just asking to get ripped off. When you get into EVs, or even complex fuel efficient 4-cylinders, the complexity and proprietary nature of many parts makes independent service difficult, specialized, and expensive.

With something like a Prius, you have such wide adoption that everyone knows how to work on them. When you have something like a Tesla, let alone a lesser known EV, independent shops can burn a dozen hours just getting up to speed on the car. And they literally may not be able to get the part, either because of some rights/IP/vendor lock in or because the part just stopped being made.

In some ways, the cars made from 1980 to 2010 are the easiest to service. You've got a lot of simple engine designs. Well understood, high parts availability. Not a lot of screens or software that isn't 100% critical for car functionality. I don't think you are going to see too many cars made today that are still running in 10-20 years honestly. Even with the greater increase in overall reliability for electric cars, the failures are often catastrophic or nearly so because everything is so integrated. It's like a MacBook Pro—almost any failure is going to run you at least 1/3rd the value of the machine.

I have some bias based on my age, but I feel like the most reliable cars were the well built vehicles in the late 90s, early 2000s. Hondas, Toyotas, the Crown Vic, and various other Ford trucks. The "simple" V6/V8 BMWs and Mercedes from this era were also incredibly well/over engineered. I don't see anyone making EVs today even attempting to do something like that anymore.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#69

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #22
m463 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep on reading that electric vehicles require less maintenance, but they still require some maintenance, and lots of things continue to break. how much maintenance does a honda ice car really require? Most of them run flawlessly for years and years, almost without opening the hood at all. I wonder how the numbers break down?

It's weird. Two decades ago I had a 2004 subaru that needed nothing first years. Then We got a 2015 Toyota rav 4 and every maintenance there was some up sell. Change a filter check the brakes resurface rotors change the atf or differential oil etc. We actually got into a dispute with dealer after third consecutive $300brakes maintenance. Thought maybe that was lemon car or bad dealer but now we have a honda odyssey a…

Most likely, you're being swindled by your dealership.

Your rotors should never need resurfacing unless you're doing a lot of HARD braking. Stop-and-go traffic doesn't count, here. We're talking something that causes your brakes to frequently get hot and begin warping. If your braking feels fine, there's no reason to get them resurfaced.

Check your manual for fluid change intervals. Don't let the dealer convince you to replace any of the fluids that aren't part of the schedule.

> I wonder about Ev - do they not have brakes, Cv joints, bearings, differentials (I know there's no transmission), et cetera?

Brakes will last the life of the car since regen braking means the pads/rotors are never used at more than 10 mph except in an emergency.

As for the others...yeah, they don't require nearly as much maintenance as your dealer is telling you. The 2003 Suzuki Esteem I owned in the past did 150,000 miles and I never did any maintenance on the differential, CV joints, or bearings.

Re: Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles

#70

Post by klipklop »

Likely a ploy to lay off more expensive older workers in favor of newer younger/cheaper ones. I can imagine them saying, "It has nothing to do with their age, we just need 'EV experience.'" Give me a break.

The idea that auto maker employees can't adapt to building EV's is pretty absurd. Interesting that upper management/execs are not being tossed out as well. You would assume they would be the group with the most outdated knowledge in a changing market. I know this did happen with Toyota, but you don't hear much with the likes of Ford. They seem as backwards as ever when it comes to selling cars.

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