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Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

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Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#381

Can I hijack this thread to ask a ‘dumb’ question: If the point of high interest rates is to take money out of the economy, would it not be more effective and fairer to simply raise taxes and pay down debt or avoid taking on more debt in the current year? I can see this wouldn’t encourage saving, but the taxes could be targeted on things which are supply constrained…

Because the money supply needs to be adjusted to a much larger degree than taxes will allow for.

Additionally there is actually a shortage of USD collateral in financial markets, further reduction of which would have significant consequences.

Rock, meet hard place.

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#382

Example: I used to sell 100 hammers a year for $5 profit per hammer. My supplier says "There is a hammer shortage I can only give you 50 this year". Okay, so I raise the prices to the point that I know hammers are always on the shelf. And everyone else is short on hammers too, so no risk of losing sales. I'm paying only a fraction more per hammer. Any my revenue is down. But my profit margins are through the roof. Su…

> so I raise the prices to the point that I know hammers are always on the shelf

you mean, you raise the prices to the point where you maximize profits by taking advantage of the shortage to extract maximal value from consumers. In other words, the exact greedflation we're talking about.

"hammers are on the shelf" is an arbitrary threshold that need not be met: supplying 50 consumers with hammers can be done with no price or marginal profit increase at all

if the analogy is to fit reality, you then raise the price even more (since profit isn't necessarily maximized when demand=supply), blaming the further increase on those pesky supply chain issues, while pocketing the extra money

> Any my revenue is down

actually, it's up, along with profits. That's how bad the greedflation is, and how little the supply chain issues actually impact either

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#383
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies do not price goods based on the goodness of their hearts. Governments etc. argue that employees should not demand higher pay to match inflation to avoid a "spiral" out of the goodness of their hearts. If employers catch the absolute currency value increase of inflation the employee employer balance is shifting.

Governments have a cynical knack of identifying every possible cause of inflation, no matter how tenuous, except the obvious one - government policy. Governments will blame businesses, consumers, employees, foreigners and bad weather. The only option ruled out is all the money printing going on and a good decade of regulators encouraging that and high-risk financial behaviour. If inflation is high, it is a bad time t…

If anyone is still claiming the main or only reason for inflation is "money printing", they really haven't being paying attention to the world for the past 3 years and it's a terrible idea to listen to them.

Why are you ignoring a pandemic with associated measures such as lockdowns (although funnily, Sweden is very useful - they didn't lock down, they didn't print a ton of money, yet they're experiencing similar inflation to their neighbours), war in continental Europe, and the impact those had on global markets (higher costs of critical raw materials such as oil and gas, various metals, disrupted supply chains and bottlenecks, etc.)? Do you really think none of this matters, or do your political leanings tell you it's always the government's fault?

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies do not price goods based on the goodness of their hearts. Governments etc. argue that employees should not demand higher pay to match inflation to avoid a "spiral" out of the goodness of their hearts. If employers catch the absolute currency value increase of inflation the employee employer balance is shifting.

What government is arguing that employee wages should be lower/stagnant in order to fight inflation? EDIT: I mean advocating not just that we should avoid a wage/price spiral through other means, but specifically that individual workers should accept/volunteer for lower wages than they could otherwise get? Edit 2: seeing several cases of "$Reserve_Bank_Person says wage increases are too high and need to come down", n…

Well, the US Federal Reserve is/has, for one. Here's an article titled "Fed’s Powell cites top barrier to taming inflation — workers’ wages": https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/30/feds-powell-inflati...

Now, of course, he's not saying to any particular workers "Hey, stop asking for much higher wages," but he says plainly in the final paragraph of the article:

> “The labor market … shows only tentative signs of rebalancing, and wage growth remains well above levels that would be consistent with 2 percent inflation over time,” he said. “Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price stability.”

How would you suppose workers are supposed to have wage growth "consistent with 2 percent inflation" if said wage growth were to greatly exceed that magical 2% number? This is the Fed literally saying "Please turn down your pay increase so we can fight inflation," except that there's also the implicit thread of "... or else we're gonna have to make sure a bunch of you lose your jobs so it all balances out. It'd be a shame if that happened, wouldn't it?"

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#385
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The answer is competition. Most of markets nowadays are dominated by 2-5 big players with the CEOs going to the same golf club. Wink-wink, nudge-nudge, prices go up, nobody can do nothing. If we had 50 competing players, there would be enough incentive for a hungry challenger to lower prices and undercut the competition. Except, over a decade of leveraged acquisitions and antitrust regulators being asleep at the whee…

The problem with competition is, what happens after someone wins it? This is essentially what has happened in many markets; lots of small companies have been killed by or conglomerated into giant ones that rule the market. Sometimes antitrust regulation can't even help with this; what if there are no acquisitions, just one company doing stuff better killing all competition?

Eventually, the company gets too big and cocky, does a massive mistake and goes out of business/downscales. Like, you know, bad investments of 2008.

The economy must go in growth/bust cycles, where growth brings out new ideas, and bust cleans up the inefficiency. And keeping it decentralized keeps busts manageable.

But if you instead let everyone merge during good times, and then bail them out during bad times, the next good times will never happen - the incentives are all wrong!

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They always want to maximize profits, but they don't have this opportunity every day. They will increase their profits if there is a convenient reason like "inflation".

I guess I'm still not convinced the "reasoning" has anything to do with it. If a company says the reason is inflation they can only maintain that pricing power if every other firm does the same thing. If no firm decides to keep prices the same, to steal more of the market, that suggests to me that either inflation is real (perhaps in a harder to quantify way than just supplies) or companies have much more consolidate…

> If a company says the reason is inflation they can only maintain that pricing power if every other firm does the same thing

empirically, this is what's effectively happening in multiple instances

given the content of the article of this post, I'm not convinced anyone can reasonably conclude that profit increases aren't accounting for a large portion of inflation: such a conclusion is unpersuasive given said content

the questions of "why now" etc. are interesting, and I encourage you to seek answers on them, but answers to them aren't necessary to observe reality, a reality the article helpfully illustrates

why did I decide on coffee this morning instead of tea? another similarly interesting question, but the answer, or lack thereof, similarly doesn't change the fact that that's what happened.

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#387
post #383
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Governments have a cynical knack of identifying every possible cause of inflation, no matter how tenuous, except the obvious one - government policy. Governments will blame businesses, consumers, employees, foreigners and bad weather. The only option ruled out is all the money printing going on and a good decade of regulators encouraging that and high-risk financial behaviour. If inflation is high, it is a bad time t…

If anyone is still claiming the main or only reason for inflation is "money printing", they really haven't being paying attention to the world for the past 3 years and it's a terrible idea to listen to them. Why are you ignoring a pandemic with associated measures such as lockdowns (although funnily, Sweden is very useful - they didn't lock down, they didn't print a ton of money, yet they're experiencing similar infl…

He labelled the cause as government policy, which clearly includes pandemic measures.

Sweden didn't lock down but they did print a ton of money. Compare money supply growth for UK vs Sweden. It's the same and occurred at the same time. Lockdowns weren't the only pandemic spending measures unfortunately. All governments everywhere massively pumped the money supply to pay for "whatever it takes" and now the bill has come due:

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/sweden-money-su...

> Do you really think none of this matters, or do your political leanings tell you it's always the government's fault?

Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, however, this basic insight is easy to get confused about because there's a large gap between theory and practice when it comes to this metric.

In theory inflation cannot occur without money printing, because a rise in prices of something like oil or food must be compensated by a fall in prices elsewhere as demand for that less essential thing disappears. People re-allocate their financial decisions towards the thing increasing in prices, businesses compensate by lowering prices to try and increase demand, it balances out.

Several things complicate this simple picture in practice.

One is that government inflation metrics don't include all prices. Indeed they cannot because it's too difficult to collect that data and prices constantly change. Also, governments like to play games with inflation statistics because if you can confuse people about inflation you get to pay for election pledges with money printing and then blame inflation on external factors, and because people tend to vote for whoever promises to spend more without raising taxes it's a quick way to hack democracy. So they usually define inflation only in terms of a small subset of all prices. If you do that then you can obviously have inflation even in the absence of money printing because you're ignoring the prices that fall.

Another problem is that in a sufficiently damaging period of price instability, some goods and services may simply cease being available. Everyone is spending all their money on heating their homes and other businesses go bankrupt as a consequence. At this point the price of the thing effectively goes to infinity, it just can't be obtained at any price, but that ruins the calculations and so governments do substitutions within the basket of prices, asserting that X is a substitute for Y even if in reality X is quite different (e.g. different kinds of meat). There are lots of hacks like these in how the stats are calculated.

Yet another problem is that money printing is somewhat circular in a fractional reserve system with very low reserve ratios and there are lots of feedback loops. If the government prints lots of money, then gives it to people whilst simultaneously banning the spending of it then it will appear they printed lots of money without causing inflation. When they stop banning the spending of it, that will show up as inflation even if the money printing has stopped. This is what's happening now, as governments shovelled money into people's pockets during lockdowns but there was nothing open to spend it on.

Nonetheless, we usually think of inflation has being caused by money printing because most of the time prices aren't being affected by wars or oil cartels and when that does occur, the prices which rise are being compensated by other prices that are falling or disappearing (which is a loss of wealth). It may just not be obvious.

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Central bank is to increase interest rates until unemployment rate increases I might be old fashioned, but last time I checked, government's job was not to drive down living standards. Maybe their job is to ensure that a resource-show like rising energy prices does not hit, by majing economy rsillient and relying on diverse suppliers

They didn't say government. They said Central Banks, which in most places are semi-disconnected from elected government since you don't really want anyone playing politics with Central Bank policy. Central Banks are generally tasked with setting one single, but very powerful, variable: interest rates. There's thought to be a pretty strong causal relationship between interest rates and unemployment. The central bank a…

In practice central bankers are unelected politicians. Their mandates are set by politicians, they aren't actually bankers in the normal sense of the term, and what they do is attempt to plan the economy in service of politically set goals. If central bankers were really independent of politics then they would of course have refused to print any money to fund COVID measures like lockdowns on the grounds that they are responsible solely for inflation and employment, so if governments wanted to do that they'd have to pass emergency taxes. Obviously no central banker said that. They were all immediately on board with letting politicians do whatever they wanted.

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and the first step to solving the problem is acknowledging it. In order to change some thing you have to prove that it’s happening. In the case of “What underlying structure creates society’s problems,” increasingly more research is pointing to inequality itself and lack of democratic participation/ownership in the economy. These are the foundational factors driving poverty and precarious economic conditions for…

The answer is competition. Most of markets nowadays are dominated by 2-5 big players with the CEOs going to the same golf club. Wink-wink, nudge-nudge, prices go up, nobody can do nothing. If we had 50 competing players, there would be enough incentive for a hungry challenger to lower prices and undercut the competition. Except, over a decade of leveraged acquisitions and antitrust regulators being asleep at the whee…

That claim is very specific to how you define market.

Most markets have never had more than 3-5 major competitors in them because beyond that it gets too hard for customers to differentiate between them, too hard to understand all the available brands etc.

But this depends on a lot on where you draw the boundaries of the market. There probably aren't more than 5 good Chinese restaurants within walking distance of where you live even in a city, for example. But over the whole city there are many more. There are only ~4 main cloud providers globally, but if you expand your definition of the market a bit further there are many more.

In practice for price competition to exist you don't seem to need more than 3-5 players. For example Oracle offer a generous free tier in the cloud space.

Re: Corporate profits account for almost half the increase in Europe’s inflation

#390
post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rewarding new entrants with high profit margins is a good way to get enough people to pool capital together to make it happen.

Show me how many new auto companies and farmers entered the market then to solve the supply and costing issues that we continue to have. The theory sounds great in an Econ 101 classroom, but is problematic in practice.

There have been quite a few new auto companies gaining popularity in the last few years.

As for farming I have no idea, but I also couldn't tell you who the biggest players in that industry are either.

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