I wish in discussions like these, people expressing an opinion on whether they think it would be better overall if real estate prices fell or rose, would also disclose whether or not they're a homeowner.
Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
211–220 of 241 posts
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
How do receipts stay the same?
Taxes don’t change on the day to day swings of the properly value of the house. There is a set value and a set rate regardless of the worth of the house. Now it could be every 10 years a city needs to re-assess. So they go and value all the houses then they make a tax rate that gets to what the tax amount will be. So some go up and some go down based on the new value. There are some outliers - your taxes may change i…
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Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#213If you look on loopnet, the cost of office versus warehouse per sq ft is staggering. It's a large visual indicator of a bubble. I've been looking for 1500-3000 sq ft for a light manufacturing space for around two years. In my area warehouse $/sqft is $5-7 a year. Office space is $13 for old and dated layouts. I have no use for that dotcom era conference room. I need 10 ft dock doors, tall ceilings, and reliable 3 pha…
What would be a non bubble price to you for industrial space?
In 2022 I would have accepted $10 per sq ft if it ticked all the boxes. There's been a few spaces I kicked myself over not signing soon enough ($6 per sq ft, 3200 sq ft, large with ample power 480v with 600 amp service, concrete roof, dock door)
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
some people just want to watch the world burn
Almost nobody does. A lot of immature people think they do, because they’re not aware that it can get much, much worse for them without getting too bad for the people they hate.
Some people are suicidal.
And the opposite of suicidal, the “carpe diem” idea, rather hedonist, is equivalent in that they believe in “no tomorrow”.
A lot of people suffer dissociation since Trump, which was crystallized in The Joker movie. Or perhaps it was due to social media. In any case, wanting to “see the world burn” is a recurrent idea, I’d like a study on how many people seriously adopt this attitude.
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is an element of ponzi because none of the actors have an interest to break the cycle. Mutual hallucination might be a better term though. Like you would think the asset buyers would have an incentive to stop holding the loans and the whole thing would collapse, but because the buyer are investing with other peoples money they are also incentivized to keep the cycle going. The people whose money is eventually g…
> none of the actors have an interest to break the cycle This is collective behaviour. If you discover you’re in a Ponzi scheme, it’s in your interest to get your money out first.
Yeah but here it’s never actually your money and if the cycle breaks you are screwed anyway. If you fail with everyone else then you can say that nobody could have ever predicted this.
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a stupid response. Remember 2009 when the housing bubble popped and it effected the entire economy? With billions tied up in commercial real estate, it will have a wider impact then just office buildings and retail locations
You mean "affected", as in it "had an effect". Unlike "effected" which, as in the saying "cause and effect", means "caused". Dear God, English is the stupidest language ever.
Except that the saying "cause and effect" is using the other (noun) meaning of "effect": it's drawing a line of causality, from a prior occurrence (the cause) to the later occurrence that is a consequence of that cause (the effect).
No one uses "cause and effect" like "cease and desist".
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is an element of ponzi because none of the actors have an interest to break the cycle. Mutual hallucination might be a better term though. Like you would think the asset buyers would have an incentive to stop holding the loans and the whole thing would collapse, but because the buyer are investing with other peoples money they are also incentivized to keep the cycle going. The people whose money is eventually g…
> none of the actors have an interest to break the cycle This is collective behaviour. If you discover you’re in a Ponzi scheme, it’s in your interest to get your money out first.
> If you discover you’re in a Ponzi scheme, it’s in your interest to get your money out first.
You can either cut your losses and not get your money back (if you're an ethical operator), of you can actively or passively allow other people topit in their money so you can get yours out first. There are similarities where rational vested actors want the charade to continue for a little while longer - the more money you put in, the longer your commitment to the mirage is.
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#218I wish in discussions like these, people expressing an opinion on whether they think it would be better overall if real estate prices fell or rose, would also disclose whether or not they're a homeowner.
Seems redundant
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#219The reasoning in this article seems specious. Malls and offices are not the locus of the same activities. fwiw I've RTOed for three to four days a week and I love it. I think it will continue to gain currency with a lot of folks who are serious about their work at companies with other employees who are also serious about their work.
>I think it will continue to gain currency with a lot of folks who are serious about their work at companies with other employees who are also serious about their work.
If your job is not face-to-face with a client/customer, then the only thing you are "serious" about at the office is socializing. That is great if you work with all your friends. If not, you and everyone else there is wasting time. It is simple to have meetings, get instant feedback, ask questions, share data, call, anything really from remote. At one time that was not true, but in 2023 people that are demanding office time are either trying to justify the cost of an office or are micromanagers with some sort of complex.
Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040
#220This is why changing zoning laws is so important. These buildings and their underlying values can be saved by 'going condo' or conversion to smaller unit spaces for the purpose of housing so many who are struggling with massive increases to rent. Most rent does not increase because of increased asset expenses, it increases because of increased owner expenses and that quickly becomes a slippery slope in the face of ad…
> the amount of money rental income sucks out of the economy that would otherwise be used for production and consumption Renting is a service, a productive economic activity that yields net positive value to the society. The building did not fall from the sky and someone "claimed" it. Someone actually had to put in work and time and take risks for it to exist and be rented. Those enjoying the building benefit from th…
This doesn't apply to the land component of the rent.