Live data from Hacker News

Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

fortune.com

161–170 of 241 posts

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#161

A collapse or real estate would be a good thing for the economy. It would free up middle class paychecks to be spent on more goods, driving long term growth of our businesses. The risk is without the correction you end up like many EU countries whos main GDP growth is real estate which only takes you a few generations to fall apart.

> main GDP growth is real estate Its an abberation. This is a failure of GDP as a measurement tool. Growth in realestate prices makes us poorer This is like saying that economy has geown because food got more expensive, so people can lo longer save. its like saying that when I give poor people mt used clothes, I am damaging the economy because they no longer have to buyt clothes, so gdp will go down.

It really is incredible how damaging it is that we use GDP as a measure for how well a society is doing. Heart surgery? Yay! GDP! The endless hamburgers, Doritos, and misc junk that helped contribute to heart surgery being needed: also great little GDP contributors.

We need a better measuring stick.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#162

A collapse or real estate would be a good thing for the economy. It would free up middle class paychecks to be spent on more goods, driving long term growth of our businesses. The risk is without the correction you end up like many EU countries whos main GDP growth is real estate which only takes you a few generations to fall apart.

> main GDP growth is real estate Its an abberation. This is a failure of GDP as a measurement tool. Growth in realestate prices makes us poorer This is like saying that economy has geown because food got more expensive, so people can lo longer save. its like saying that when I give poor people mt used clothes, I am damaging the economy because they no longer have to buyt clothes, so gdp will go down.

GDP growth is reported in REAL terms.

If existing home prices go up 4% - that should be discounted from REAL growth.

If land prices go up 4%, that should also be discounted from REAL growth.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a stupid response. Remember 2009 when the housing bubble popped and it effected the entire economy? With billions tied up in commercial real estate, it will have a wider impact then just office buildings and retail locations

> This is a stupid response. Remember 2009 when the housing bubble popped and it effected the entire economy? With billions tied up in commercial real estate, it will have a wider impact then just office buildings and retail locations A lot of people are so disenfranchised from the wealth that the world could crash and they could care less. They are already at the bottom with nothing to lose. Such is the inequality i…

And they are posting on HN? More likely they are posting on behalf of the oppressed person from their imagination. An economic crisis hits those at the bottom the worst, even if in absolute numbers the losses at the top may be greater. Rich people did not put all their money in commercial real estate anyway. If anything, they are reducing real estate exposure and are piling into treasuries right now.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#164
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real issue is plumbing. You need more plumbing in residential real estate. Many buildings are difficult to retrofit because they use a type of compressed concrete floor that cannot be safely drilled. Cheaper to demo.

Right, you demo the existing building and rebuild one that will satisfy the window per bedroom requirement efficiently. I'm sure people reading HN can imagine a multitude of solutions. We just need to reach the tipping point where the demo/rebuild cost is lower than the expected gain.

Real estate is all about tax schemes. If the market goes as predicted, Congress will update the rules and there will be a demolition rush.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#165
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China right now. Massive real estate crisis brewing. Local government in China is funded by land sales, which encouraged rampant speculation.

Perhaps, though this potential Ponzi has been brewing for nearly two decades. If they grow out of it, it’s definitionally not a Ponzi.

Hard to grow out of it when they already have more built sqft per person than Europe, and they're projected to have about half the population in 60 years...

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not really how a lot of this works. Zoning is basically irrelevant - the problem is that the cost of converting an outmoded commercial building to residential is usually within the same order of magnitude as knocking it down and putting up something built for purpose. I would bet real money that there aren’t more than a handful of municipal governments that would die on the hill of maintaining existing zoning…

the problem is that the cost of converting an outmoded commercial building to residential is usually within the same order of magnitude as knocking it down and putting up something built for purpose. If you look at the urban core of many cities, they are full of old commercial buildings converted to lofts/residentia. The old bank district in LA was empty and in disrepair for decades, then a huge conversion boom in th…

Many of today's office buildings are not built to last, honestly. There is a good chance that a glass/concrete tower will collapse in 100 years, while the old brick factories are basically indestructible.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#167

A collapse or real estate would be a good thing for the economy. It would free up middle class paychecks to be spent on more goods, driving long term growth of our businesses. The risk is without the correction you end up like many EU countries whos main GDP growth is real estate which only takes you a few generations to fall apart.

> main GDP growth is real estate Its an abberation. This is a failure of GDP as a measurement tool. Growth in realestate prices makes us poorer This is like saying that economy has geown because food got more expensive, so people can lo longer save. its like saying that when I give poor people mt used clothes, I am damaging the economy because they no longer have to buyt clothes, so gdp will go down.

Bill Bryson had it right.

> Here's another arresting thought. None of this really matters because GDP is in any case a perfectly useless measurement All that it is, literally, is a crude measure of national income - 'the dollar value of finished goods and services', as the textbooks put it - over a given period.

> Any kind of economic activity adds to the gross domestic product. It doesn't matter whether its a good activity or a had one It has been estimated, for instance that the O.J. Simpson trial added $200 million to America's GDP through lawyers' fees, court costs, hotel bills for the press and so on, but I don't think many people would argue that the whole costly spectacle made America a noticeably greater, nobler place.

> In fact, bad activities often generate more GDP than good activities. I was recently in Pennsylvania at the site of a zinc factory whose airborne wastes were formerly so laden with pollutants that they denuded an entire mountainside. From the factory fence to the top of the mountain there was not a single scrap of growing vegetation to be seen. From a GDP perspective however, this was wonderful. First there was the gain to the economy from all the zinc the factory had refined and sold over the years. Then there was the gain from the tens of millions of dollars the government must spend to clean up the site and restore the mountain. Finally, there will be a continuing gain from medical treatments for workers and townspeople made chronically ill by living amid all those contaminants.

> In terms of conventional economic measurement, all of this is gain, not loss. So too is overfishing of lakes and seas. So too is deforestation. In short, the more tirelessly we use up natural resources, the more the GDP grows.

> As the economist Herman Daly once put it, 'the current national accounting system treats the earth as a business in liquidation.' Or as three other leading economists dryly observed in an article in the Atlantic Monthly last year 'By the curious standard of the GDP, the nation's economic hero is a terminal cancer patient who is going through a costly divorce.'

> So why do we persist with this preposterous gauge of economic performance? Because it's the best thing that economists have come up with yet. Now you know why they call it the dismal science

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#168

A collapse or real estate would be a good thing for the economy. It would free up middle class paychecks to be spent on more goods, driving long term growth of our businesses. The risk is without the correction you end up like many EU countries whos main GDP growth is real estate which only takes you a few generations to fall apart.

> The risk is without the correction you end up like many EU countries whos main GDP growth is real estate which only takes you a few generations to fall apart. What is an example country whose main GDP growth stems from real estate? The EU economy as a whole is driven mostly by the services sector, which accounted for 70% of value added in 2020. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/16-trillion-european-union-...

Canada’s real estate sector is massive. The economy seems to run on digging things out of the ground to sell to other countries, buying nice things made abroad, and then selling houses to each other. All of this fun is backstopped by a government only too keen to keep the good times rolling.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#169

This is why changing zoning laws is so important. These buildings and their underlying values can be saved by 'going condo' or conversion to smaller unit spaces for the purpose of housing so many who are struggling with massive increases to rent. Most rent does not increase because of increased asset expenses, it increases because of increased owner expenses and that quickly becomes a slippery slope in the face of ad…

Develop the conserved federal land? No way. Let's redevelop some of the effing parking lots and one-storey strip malls that take up half the land space in most US cities. Real life example, Assembly Square near Boston: https://twitter.com/ScoutSomerville/status/12117083803913666...

Assembly Square - reminds me the South Park episode - city part of town - https://southpark.fandom.com/wiki/The_City_Part_of_Town

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#170

A collapse or real estate would be a good thing for the economy. It would free up middle class paychecks to be spent on more goods, driving long term growth of our businesses. The risk is without the correction you end up like many EU countries whos main GDP growth is real estate which only takes you a few generations to fall apart.

The middle class didn't really benefit much from the real estate collapse in 2008, what do you think would make the next one different? Residential vs. commercial real estate is one difference, I guess, but how would a commercial real estate crash free up middle class paychecks anyway?
Post reply on HN